Tulane vs. North Texas prediction, pick, spread: Green Wave, Mean Green seek American title, CFP appearance
The winner of Friday's American title game is all but guaranteed a spot in the College Football Playoff
By
Carter Bahns
•
3 min read
The conference title is on the line, and so too is a potential College Football Playoff berth as No. 20 Tulane hosts No. 24 North Texas in the American Conference Championship Game. Both squads are led by departing coaches (Tulane's Jon Sumrall and North Texas' Eric Morris) who will continue to lead their respective programs through the end of the season, and neither wants this to be the final game for their headman before he exits for his new job.
Considering where the American stands in the context of other Group of Five leagues, the longstanding assumption is that the league winner will be the fifth-highest ranked conference champion in the nation. With that designation comes an automatic bid in the CFP, likely as the No. 12 seed. And depending on what happens in the ACC, the victor could be held in even higher regard. Neither the Green Wave nor the Mean Green have ever played in the CFP, so history is on the table regardless of the result.
The conference championship game is an on-campus affair in the American. Both teams went 7-1 in league play, but Tulane will host the title bout by virtue of being the highest-ranked American team in the Week 14 CFP Top 25. The Green Wave is unbeaten at home and posted the first 6-0 record in Yulman Stadium history.
Tulane vs. North Texas: Need to know
Lame-duck coaches: Sumrall and Morris have had their hands full of late, balancing tasks at two different schools. Both were announced as incoming coaches at Power Four universities with Sumrall bound for Florida and Morris set to take over at Oklahoma State. But unlike some coaches on the 2025 carousel (looking at you, Lane Kiffin), their schools permitted them to remain with their respective teams through the end of the season. It is a unique wrinkle in this matchup that brings into question how focused the coaches will be on the task at hand and how motivated their players will be to suit up for coaches who are on their way out.
Class of the American: Although it came away victorious just once (2022), Tulane reached the conference championship game each of the last three years and on Friday will become the first program in American history to play in four consecutive title games. The Green Wave is also 29-3 in regular-season conference games dating back to 2022, good for the best winning percentage (.906) of any team in the FBS. It is a stretch of dominance for the Green Wave that spans multiple coaching staffs, which indicates an immense amount of program strength and suggests it will be able to reload once Sumrall departs for Florida.
Mean Green offensive machine: If North Texas defeats the perennial conference title contender and wins its first American crown, it will almost certainly be because of its offense. Redshirt freshman quarterback Drew Mestemaker leads the nation in passing with 3,835 yards, true freshman running back Caleb Hawkins paces the sport in rushing touchdowns (23) and total touchdowns (26), sophomore wide receiver Wyatt Young ranks third nationally with 1,203 receiving yards and the team as a whole is the highest-scoring operation in the country at 46.8 points per game. The Mean Green put up at least 52 points in each of their final three regular-season games.
Where to watch Tulane vs. North Texas live
Date: Friday, Dec. 5 | Time: 8 p.m. ET
Location: Yulman Stadium -- New Orleans, Louisiana
TV: ABC | Live stream: Fubo (Try for free)
Tulane vs. North Texas prediction, picks
Tulane is the more proven team against high-end competition. The Green Wave defeated a pair of Power Four opponents in Northwestern and Duke and did not lose to a team below .500. Meanwhile, let it not be forgotten that the last time (and only time) North Texas played a ranked team, it lost by 27 points to a conference foe in South Florida. While Mestemaker and his supporting cast could post a number that Tulane simply cannot match, the Green Wave is more battle-tested, familiar with the big stage and boasts home-field advantage. This might be a "wrong team favored" situation with Morris' unit laying a field goal on the road. Pick: Tulane ML (+110)
Who will win and cover in each conference championship game? Legendary Vegas expert Bruce Marshall is on a 43-36 roll on college football picks. Visit SportsLine now to see all his college football picks.
