In a week that was largely dominated by ranked teams, it's easy to assume that the movements might be subtle when it comes to changes in the college football rankings. But given the breakdown of votes in the preseason balloting from the AP Top 25 poll, there's plenty of opportunity for a shakeup as those opinions are tested with Week 1 in the books.
One of the areas where the most movement, by rankings, could be possible is inside the top 10. The AP Top 25 poll has largely mirrored the college football majority opinion that there are seven teams who exist in the top tier of the sport: Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia, Notre Dame, Texas, Indiana and Miami. Those seven teams have been mixed up in multiple ways across different rankings, but for the most part, that's the group that will start any conversation about being a national title contender.
So in a week where all of those seven teams win, the only real reason for change would be the ability or inability to meet those preseason expectations of being a title contender. Six of those teams inside the top seven won by 28 points or more, while Oregon trailed at halftime against Boise State and needed all it could get from star quarterback Dante Moore to emerge with a one-touchdown victory. Five of those top-seven teams got first-place votes, and Oregon got the second-most, but after seeing the Ducks stand out as the dominant leader of the bunch, it's likely to see that those small-margin shifts could lead to multiple-spot movement in the rankings.
And while we are projecting some shifting inside the top seven, one of the big questions for Tuesday's AP Top 25 poll update is the landing spot for LSU after a 51-10 win against Clemson in one of the most-hyped games of Week 1. Every voter took note of Lane Kiffin's LSU debut, and the eye-popping nature of the score will lead to small adjustments across the board when it comes to the updated ballots. Some voters will be ready to consider LSU a threat to Ohio State for the top, while others will take the Tigers' success in stride with an eye on more top-10 tests ahead in the coming weeks.
With AP Top 25 ranked teams having a large amount of success in Week 1, the adjustments are more tied to the shifting nature of performance against expectations, noting the voting points and ballot disbursement for all of the moves.
Here's how we expect the new AP Top 25 poll to look on Tuesday after Week 1 scores and results in college football:
1. Ohio State (Last week — 1): We're projecting the Buckeyes will only strengthen their position as the No. 1 team in the country, possibly picking up a couple extra first-round votes in the wake of a 53-point win against Ball State. Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith appear to have picked up right where they left off as one of the best QB-WR duos in the country, and while the competition was certainly different, the performance seemed more complete than some other teams that got first-place votes ahead of the Buckeyes.
2. Notre Dame (4): The voting disparity on Notre Dame in the preseason poll was about as wide as any of the top four teams, so we project that the 28-point win against Wisconsin on Sunday night provided enough motivation to lose some of those low-end ballot spots hurting the team's ranking. This team had six first-place votes and 26 total voters slotting the Fighting Irish as a top-three team coming into the year, but their voting points total was hurt by showing up at 7th, 8th, and even 10th on the preseason ballots. Even a one-spot or two-spot bump from some of those low-end voters after an impressive second-half performance on Sunday night positions Notre Dame to emerge at the top of a tight race with Georgia and Texas for No. 2.
3. Georgia (3): The Bulldogs recorded their most points (63) in a season opener since 1941 and steamrolled Tennessee State without much resistance. Voters seem to be wrestling with the stress point of whether Georgia is truly one of the best teams in the country or merely a top-five team based on their preseason ballots, and those kinds of debates are not usually settled after an FCS win, even if it comes by 60 points.
4. Texas (5): With Texas' offensive firepower, the road is clear for Arch Manning to put together some truly memorable performances as the Longhorns pursue another season with SEC championship and College Football Playoff expectations. Manning's four-touchdown, 305-yard performance made him the first Texas quarterback since Sam Ehlinger in 2020 to throw for four or more scores in the season opener, and being able to activate both Ryan Wingo and Cam Coleman in the process allowed voters to feel like their preseason expectations were validated. With Ohio State on deck, all Texas really needed to do was handle business and get out healthy. Instead the Longhorns dominated and won by 52, which guarantees a top-five showdown with the Buckeyes in Week 2.
5. Miami (7): The Hurricanes had some serious upward momentum potential coming into Week 1 given the fact that they did show up with eight voters placing them third or higher, including one first-place vote. Any positive reaction from those voters who had Miami 7th and 8th on their ballot will quickly pull the Hurricanes up with an improvement in voting points among this tight pack of teams inside the top 10. The dominant fashion of Miami's Friday night win at Stanford, complete with a Heisman-worthy performance from super sophomore Malachi Toney, provides plenty of momentum for a small bump in the rankings.
6. Indiana (6): The nation's longest active winning streak in the FBS (17) was extended as the reigning champs kicked off the 2026 season with a four-touchdown home win against North Texas. The Mean Green applied some game pressure on the Hoosiers, cutting the lead to as little as 11 points in the third quarter, but new quarterback Josh Hoover and the Indiana offense were in midseason form with eight scoring drives and just one punt. Indiana's ball control precision was dialed in pretty tight between 5th, 6th, and 7th in the preseason, so we're projecting that mostly holds through Week 1.
7. Oregon (2): As we mentioned in the introduction, the margins are too slim among top teams to assume Oregon won't fall in the rankings. The theoretical stock is down for the Ducks, because the defense that was lauded prior to the season wasn't getting the best of Boise State in a game that required a career-high 378 yards from Dante Moore to secure the win. The Ducks were expected to be tested but cruised and did just enough to get by without a loss, providing Dan Lanning plenty of teachable material but also probably penalizing the team in the rankings. While the rest of the top-7 teams found their way to 20+ point wins, the Ducks were the only one sweating into the fourth quarter.
8. LSU (11): There is enough juice behind LSU's win to consider a move up closer to the top five, but our projection will go conservative with respect to the established group of contenders at the top. The Tigers absolutely obliterated a Clemson team that was inside the top 30 in voting points in the preseason and had traditionally been a darling of the AP poll voters. There could be a few voters who get bold and even toss a first- or second-place vote to LSU, but most voters will start with a quick bump up inside the top 10.
9. Ole Miss (9): Pete Golding's first regular-season game as head coach was far from regular as the Rebels survived a late charge from Louisville in a Sunday night neutral-site thriller. Ole Miss seemed to address both the strengths and weaknesses perceived in the preseason with a team that was dangerous enough to beat anyone thanks to the play of Trinidad Chambliss but also caught in a dogfight because of the inability to get stops in key moments. So while the teams might be getting moved around elsewhere, we're projecting Ole Miss mostly stays steady.
10. Texas A&M (8): There are likely going to be Texas A&M fans fuming at the result of "dropping" in the rankings after a 50-point shutout win against an FBS opponent when other schools are making moves up after wins against FCS opponents. But the issue here is that the Aggies are getting "dropped" as much as they are getting "jumped." Texas A&M was closer to Ole Miss at No. 9 than it was Miami at No. 7 in voting points, and the expected surge of voters' support for both the Rebels and LSU is set to spark a re-shuffling off this whole range around the edge of the top 10. Texas A&M will have its chance too soon to land quality, rankings-shifting victories. But for now it's giving up a couple spots because of other teams' success.
11. Oklahoma (10): Like we mentioned with Texas A&M, there's no expectation we see voters change much about their ballots with the Sooners. LSU's projected rise from No. 11 could just mess up the math for where Oklahoma falls in this logjam of SEC teams. Plus, the opportunity for Oklahoma to have its own bump is coming ahead in Week 2 with a trip to Ann Arbor to play Michigan.
12. Alabama (13): The star power of new starting quarterback Keelon Russell answers a question that was lingering in the mind of voters when they filled out their preseason ballot. There's definitely a ceiling to any moves up for Alabama, but with a strong performance on offense in the first half of a 48-10 win against ECU, it's looking likely that the Crimson Tide could move up a spot or two.
13. USC (14): There is some advantage to having dominated most of 120 minutes of college football action while the rest of the top 25 has just played 60. The Trojans gave up some late scores to San Jose State in Week 0, but otherwise have played complete and totally dominant football in the 2026 season. Most voters are fairly locked in on having USC between No. 12 and No. 15, but 17 different voters have USC ranked No. 16 or lower, including four voters who have the Trojans slotted in the 20's. If those tail-end voters even move USC up to No. 15, it could cause the kind of changes that have USC moving up a couple spots.
14. Texas Tech (12): Much like Oregon, Michigan, and others, Texas Tech is poised to be in the position of dropping some spots in the rankings even after recording a win in Week 1. The Red Raiders did not meet pregame expectations in s a 33-10 win against FCS Abilene Christian, falling short in part because of the frequency of field goals in touchdown opportunities.
15. BYU (14): We are not anticipating much of an adjustment based on BYU beating Utah Tech by 56 points. The Cougars are contending for a Big 12 Championship and a College Football Playoff spot in 2026, so any result against this Big Sky opponent needs to include a win and no major injuries.
16. Penn State (18): Marshall arrived in Happy Valley carrying one of the Sun Belt's most-hyped quarterbacks in Carlos Del Rio Wilson and a team that seemed capable of providing some resistance for Matt Campbell's Penn State debut. But what unfolded was anything but, and the Nittany Lions' total dominance on both sides of the ball to the point of leading by 31 points early in the third quarter and cruising to a 45-0 win.
17. SMU (19): The Mustangs are set to remain solidly between No. 15 and No. 20 after Monday night's RESULT against Florida State.
18. Tennessee (20): It is important that we apply all the context of an FCS opponent, but Faizon Brandon's five-touchdown debut as Tennessee's starting quarterback is worth noting as we spin the season ahead for the Vols. When AP voters turned in their ballots for the preseason rankings Brandon was still in a battle with George MacIntyre with the starting job, and while turning to a freshman does come with risks, the talent seems to be translating at the college level already.
19. Washington (17): The Huskies offense did not clothe itself in glory during a hard-fought 24-10 rivalry win against Washington State. Washington could not get out of its own way with penalties and execution errors, keeping the Big Ten favorites from pulling away from their Pac-12 foes.
20. Michigan (16): On Saturday night it felt aggressive to project a four-spot drop for Michigan, but the conversation around the Wolverines' quarterback outlook on Monday could only power skepticism for voters filling out their ballots on Labor Day. Kyle Whittingham remains committed to Bryce Underwood for now, but the national outlook is far less encouraging after surviving the upset bid from Western Michigan.
21. Utah (21): We're not projecting much, if any, changes for Utah after the Morgan Scalley era opens with a lopsided win against Idaho. Utah got a stellar performance out of Devon Dampier, racing out to a 31-7 halftime lead and then cruising to a 66-14 win that provides a nice start to the 2026 campaign.
22. Iowa (22): The Hawkeyes put the absolute clamps on Northern Illinois, holding the Huskies to 135 yards of total offense at just 2.5 yards per play, but those kinds of results aren't going to spark much movement for voters who will likely remain pretty loyal to Iowa as a team in the 20s until proven otherwise.
23. Missouri (25): When the halftime score is 40-0, as it was with Missouri against Arkansas Pine Bluff, it's tough for voters to even get a feel for what a team did or did not accomplish in a win. As such, we're projecting the Tigers to bump up a couple spots mostly on the backs of other teams getting dropped.
24. Virginia (NR): Voters looking to occupy the "ACC Memorial Team In The 20s" spot on their ballot have a fine substitution for dropping Louisville after watching Virginia thoroughly dismantle a conference opponent in Week 0. Virginia was largely dropped from AP poll consideration for 2026 (receiving just one vote for a No. 25 spot) after finishing last year ranked No 16, but they'll be back
25. Florida (NR): The Gators were 27th in voting points last week, trailing on Clemson in the "Others receiving votes" category. So while No. 24 Louisville lost and No. 26 Clemson fell way short of expectations, the Gators merely put together one of the best offensive performances of the decade in a 66-10 win against FAU.
Projected to drop out: Houston (23), Louisville (24)
