Tom Fornelli's College Football Power Ratings: Georgia falls amid poor line play, Notre Dame returns to top 10

With Georgia losing to Alabama Saturday night, Kirby Smart's career record against the Crimson Tide dropped to 1-7. I'm sure you already know that, because it's been mentioned roughly a billion times since, which is the same number of times a Georgia fan has retorted with "yeah, but the one win was for the natty."

That record has led to people asking if Smart has "an Alabama problem." I have a different question I feel is far more pertinent to Georgia's concerns. While the Dawgs have struggled with 'Bama under Smart, the bigger question for 2025 is this:

Does Georgia have a line of scrimmage problem?

Now, as is always the case when we're talking about teams at the top of the sport, we have to put it in the context of the program itself. What Georgia has along the lines of scrimmage remains the envy of 95% (at least) of other FBS programs, but when I watch the Dawgs these days, I don't see either line resembling what I saw when they were winning two national titles.

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Chip Patterson

The stats back up my eyes. Looking at the run game, removing Gunner Stockton from the equation, the numbers make it look like the lanes simply aren't there for Georgia's backs. If you want to argue about the talent level at the position, feel free, but I'd remind you that the leading rushers on Georgia's title teams were Kenny McIntosh, Daijun Edwards, Kendall Milton, Zamir White and James Cook. Outside Cook (who was second on the team in rushing in 2022), none of those guys have exactly lit the NFL on fire since moving on.

Regardless, look at how this year's numbers compare to the last five seasons (when Georgia won its first national title). It's been one of the weaker performances across the board so far, and Georgia hasn't gotten to the meat of its SEC schedule yet. The numbers could get worse.

Life isn't any better in the pass game. When Gunner Stockton drops back, he's not being afforded the same level of protection his predecessors received.

The defensive side isn't as bleak all around, though it's not good. I won't flood you with even more tables, but Georgia's overall performance against the run has been solid. However, based on what my eyes tell me, a lot of that is due to the Dawgs having better linebacker play this season than what I saw the last few years. The defensive line is playing well. CJ Allen is playing incredibly well.

The larger concern is the pass rush. It only exists in theory. Georgia's pressure rate of 26% this season is far and away its worst number of the last five seasons, ranking well below 2023's 33.4%. The sack rate of 4.0% is behind 2022's 6.4%. The team's negative play rate is the worst of the era, as is its EPA per dropback. The Dawgs have five sacks as a team, and linebackers are responsible for all of them, led by Chris Cole's three.

As for why this is the case, on offense, the Dawgs have had to work in new starters up front, and that could take time. While it hasn't been great, I was slightly encouraged by what I saw from the unit against Alabama following some personnel changes. Defensively is a bigger issue.

In prior years, Georgia was able to rotate monster after monster in to keep guys fresh. I mean, Jordan Davis would come off the field and be replaced by Jalen Carter. That's insane, but it was the reality. The portal has sapped Georgia of its ability to do this. Guys aren't as willing to sit around waiting for their shot or to play in a rotation when other programs are offering them more money and more playing time.

Georgia is dealing with the ramifications of this new reality. It's not a problem that can't be fixed, but I'm not sure it can be fixed in-season. 

Odds below via FanDuel Sportsbook

2025 Fornelli Power Ratings

1	Ohio State
It's not bulletproof, but one way to figure out who the truly special teams are is to look for the teams that go into difficult spots and handle business without problem. Ohio State did that last week. Husky Stadium is not an easy place to play for anybody, let alone a freshman QB making his first road start. But the Buckeyes handled the game from start to finish, winning 24-6. We wondered how the Buckeyes would replace all they lost from last year. Turns out it wasn't that difficult for them. Last Week: 1 | Title Odds: +500
2	Oregon
How different would things feel if Oregon didn't recover to win in double-overtime right now? Dan Lanning made a throat slash gesture when the Ducks went up 17-3, and it was a tad premature! Still, I think the Ducks would've probably remained at No. 2 here even if they had lost. The offense wasn't nearly as explosive against Penn State as it had been prior, but this team went on the road to a tough place to win, faced serious adversity, and came out the other side victorious. That's a big culture win for the program, and a statement to everyone else. Last Week: 2 | Title Odds: +600
3	Alabama
Alabama is not a perfect team. It has issues that could cause it problems at some point down the road, much the same way they did in the opener against Florida State . However, I am not moving them up two spots to No. 3 based solely on beating Georgia. The primary force behind the move is Ty Simpson . The more I see him, the more convinced I become the Tide have one of the five best QBs in the country, and perhaps the best in the SEC. That's worth quite a lot when it comes to figuring out a power rating. Last Week: 5 | Title Odds: +800
4	Texas
OK, so we go from talking about Alabama's excellent QB to immediately ranking Texas behind them, ahead of Georgia, despite all the questions about Texas' QB. I can explain! The short answer is I have more belief in the Texas defense than I do Georgia's right now, based on what I wrote about up top. Last Week: 6 | Title Odds: +700
5	Georgia
I don't have much more to add about the Bulldogs that I haven't already written, but I'll say this. It's one thing to have a game-manager type quarterback when he's surrounded with elite talent and superior lines of scrimmage. When you don't have those advantages, that lack of a true difference-maker at QB can cost you in the biggest games. It hurt Georgia Saturday night. Last Week: 3 | Title Odds: +1000
6	Miami (Fla.)
The 'Canes had the week off, but climbed a spot here based on events that happened elsewhere. They're on the road to face Florida State this week in what will be a huge game for the ACC title race, as well as a chance for the 'Canes to make another statement that this season is different than last season. Last Week: 7 | Title Odds: +1400
7	Penn State
We've been here before so many times. Too many times for Penn State fans. This team does not have the personnel needed on offense to win against elite teams. It's not an opinion anymore. There's too much evidence to show it's factual. The defense did everything in its power to give the offense a chance to win the game, and while I admire the late push to force overtime, it came too late. The turnover in double-overtime felt too on the nose. Last Week: 4 | Title Odds: +850
8	Indiana
So we know that Indiana can suffer a letdown now. The Hoosiers clearly put a lot of energy into crushing Illinois two weeks ago as a response to everybody hyping the Illini as "the next Indiana," and they nearly paid the price for it against the Hawkeyes. The final score was closer than the game felt while watching it, but that's what Iowa can do to you. Now the Hoosiers have a bye and extra time to prepare for an opponent they certainly won't overlook: Oregon at Autzen Stadium on Oct. 11. Last Week: 8 | Title Odds: +4000
9	Ole Miss
Genuinely one of the more confusing teams for me to figure out. I simply cannot get what I consider a great read on the Rebels. LSU didn't play well in Ole Miss ' 24-19 win, but I don't know that Ole Miss played that much better. And I've felt that way a few times about this team, but they keep winning anyway. I will point out, though, that the AP poll had LSU No. 4 last week when we had LSU at No. 11. Now the AP has Ole Miss at No. 4 while we've got them at No. 9. AP voters are bigger prisoners of the moment than the power ratings. Last Week: 9 | Title Odds: +2000
10	Notre Dame
Incredible effort by Notre Dame to try and make the entirety of their second half against Arkansas garbage time. The Irish led 42-13 at halftime and were running fake punts to start the second half because, as I wrote Saturday night, this team knows what it has to do from here on out. Given the rest of their schedule and their standing here, they just might do it too. Last Week: Not Ranked | Title Odds: +2700
11	Texas A&M
Mike Elko isn't here for your negativity following a 16-10 win, but the truth is the Aggies let Auburn hang around. Now, I say that while knowing the Auburn defense is phenomenal, if you watched this game, you likely spent 80% of it asking yourself, "HOW IN THE HELL IS THIS GAME STILL SO CLOSE!?" Concerns about the defense remain because I don't put much stock in stopping Auburn's offense, and that makes this week's game against Mississippi State more interesting than you might think. Last Week: Not Ranked | Title Odds: +2200
12	Oklahoma
The Sooners had the week off, and for now, I have to dock them a bit for the John Mateer injury. We don't know how long he'll be out, but you have to imagine the drop-off between Mateer and backup Michael Hawkins Jr . is steep enough to cause the Sooners to hit the portal and spend the money to bring Mateer (and Ben Arbuckle) in after having a front row seat for the Michael Hawkins experience last season. Last Week: 10 | Title Odds: +2000

Fell outside top 12: LSU, Tennessee