Oklahoma v Alabama
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Ever been in a situation where you're about to tell somebody something you know will enrage them, and also know that rage will be directed at you, whether you're responsible for it or not? Of course you have. It's a part of life.

And I'm having one of those moments right now.

I regret to inform you all that the top four has no changes in the power ratings this week. Why is that a big deal? Well, because you might remember that the No. 4 team last week was the team that had been ranked No. 4 for some time now: Alabama. You might also remember that Alabama lost this weekend at home to Oklahoma.

Oh, and the Oklahoma team that beat Alabama is not ranked in our top 12. I'm going to get dragged!

So this is when I feel compelled to remind you all how power ratings work, and it's another example of why power ratings should not be a primary consideration for the College Football Playoff field. Those rankings should be based on nothing but results in the current season.

But power ratings are designed to be predictive, not reactive. To do this, they take into account the parts of the football game that are repeatable and have shown over time to be the things that correlate the strongest with success. Or, in other words, they try to take as much of the "luck" and "chaos" out of the equation as possible to get a clearer picture. Of course, you can't take luck or chaos out of life, and if you could, life wouldn't be nearly as interesting.

Anyway, this is all my way of telling you that while Oklahoma beat Alabama, and does not have to feel bad about it, or apologize for it, the way Oklahoma went about beating Alabama isn't exactly a method you can rely on week in and week out. I mean, if you look at another publicly available power rating, SP+ over at ESPN.com, the man behind that system, Bill Connelly, releases the win expectancy for every game based on how the game was played. His numbers say that, if the same game were played 100 times, Oklahoma would win 4.8 of those 100 games. Saturday's game happened to be one of those 4.8 times.

So while Alabama's loss hurt it in the human polls, and puts its SEC and playoff hopes in greater jeopardy than before -- and rightfully so! -- it doesn't do much damage at all here. Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook 

2025 Fornelli Power Ratings
1
Ohio State
There's a rhythm to the weekend involving Ohio State. On Saturday, Ohio State beats the ever-living hell out of whatever team had the misfortune of playing it that week. Then, shortly after the conclusion of the game, my inbox receives two separate emails at the same time from Ohio State's sports information director. One of the emails is making the Heisman case for Julian Sayin. The other is making it for Jeremiah Smith. I can't help but wonder if this isn't doing a disservice to both 's' chances of winning. It's as though I'm being forced to figure out which one deserves it more, and that immediately discounts the other person's case. There's certainly an argument for both to win it, and there's an argument for both to appear on the same ballot, but the most likely outcome is that they split ballots and neither of them wins the award because of it. The good news is, I doubt either of them really cares right now. They've got bigger goals to achieve. Last Week: 1 | Title Odds: +185
2
Indiana
The Indiana Hoosiers are 11-0 for the first time in program history. It's only the second time Indiana has won 11 games in a single season. The last time was all the way back in 2024. What was interesting about this week's Hoosiers game, though, was it looked like Indiana had a letdown for the first time. Wisconsin's defense took away the run game, which caused some problems early, but Indiana figured it out and got back to its old habit of blowing your doors off in the second half. Last Week: 2 | Title Odds: +500
3
Oregon
The most interesting part of Oregon's 42-13 win over Minnesota Friday night may have been RG3's decision to wear a cowboy hat while calling the game. Or it could've been Kenyon Sadiq repeatedly embarrassing the poor soul tasked with covering him on a given play. Anyway, the Ducks have two massive games remaining on their schedule, and aren't guaranteed anything despite their 9-1 mark. A loss to USC or Washington could knock this team out of an at-large bid. Last Week: 3 | Title Odds: +1300
4
Alabama
I went over it already, but Alabama had a nightmare against Oklahoma Saturday night. It was easily Ty Simpson's worst game of the season, but Alabama's defense has nothing to feel bad about. The offense turned the ball over three times (including two fumbles), which gave the Sooners short fields if they didn't score on the turnover outright. The Tide will be favored in their final two games, and if they win both to reach the SEC Championship, they could be favored there as well. Last Week: 4 | Title Odds: +1500
5
Georgia
The Dawgs make a leap up to No. 5 following a 35-10 win over Texas, their third win over the Longhorns in the last 13 months. I wrote last week about how condensed the ratings were once we got past the top two of Ohio State and Indiana, and that is why we're going to see a lot of movement in these spots this week. Georgia didn't make a huge leap in its rating, but it made a gain large enough to jump to No. 5. Who knows what will happen if they mess around with Charlotte this week! Last Week: 8 | Title Odds: +1100
6
Notre Dame
Notre Dame's 37-15 win over Pitt went about how I expected it to. Yes, the Panthers were on a winning streak, and they were ranked in the polls, but my power ratings suggest there was a pretty large gap between them and the Fighting Irish. That's how it played out. Notre Dame's ranking is a popular topic of conversation these days, particularly in relation to Miami, but you'll notice my ratings currently have the Irish ahead of the two teams they lost to. Just another thing to be mad at me about! However, I am officially putting it on the record that if the final at-large spot comes down to Notre Dame and Miami, it should go to Miami without question. As I said, when it comes to the CFP field, results 100% have to matter more than anything else. Even if I'd have Notre Dame favored over Miami on a neutral field. Last Week: 6 | Title Odds: +1000
7
Texas Tech
I wondered if the Red Raiders would suffer a slight letdown coming off their win over BYU, but they did not. They ended things quickly in a 48-9 win over UCF, which is an encouraging thing to see. There are a lot of times when you see a team that's not accustomed to having an elite level of success struggle to maintain the intensity every single week, particularly after huge wins. Hell, you see plenty of teams that are used to success struggle to do it. The fact Tech came out with a business-like dismantling of the Knights bodes well for them, and is a reflection of the culture in that locker room. Last Week: 7 | Title Odds: +1400
8
Texas A&M
Yes, the Aggies fall three spots despite winning, but while you were watching that first half against South Carolina, you probably thought they deserved to fall much farther. Again, this is more about how condensed this part of the rankings is, and while the Aggies came back to win, they might have a perfect record, but they are not a perfect team. Last Week: 5 | Title Odds: +800
9
Utah
There is a scenario in which Utah gets to the Big 12 Championship, and I don't think anybody wants to see them there. The 34-10 home loss to Texas Tech will be the thing that sinks this team, but they've been so much better since then, and have always been a better team than they showed that day. The most likely outcome is Utah misses out on the conference title game, and Utes fans are left asking themselves a lot of "what ifs" regarding the 24-21 loss at BYU. Last Week: 9 | Title Odds: +4500
10
Ole Miss
I'm very interested in what the next couple of weeks will bring for the Rebels. They're 10-1 and basically a certainty to be in the playoffs. At the same time, there's the uncertainty around Lane Kiffin's future. Even if I expect he'll return, I get the sense patience is wearing thin with the wait-and-see approach, as this is not the first time Kiffin has done this dance. I also wonder how Kiffin's situation, combined with being essentially a lock for the playoff, will impact this team's preparation for the Egg Bowl. That's the kind of rivalry game where records really do not matter, so if the Rebels ease off the gas even a little, they might find themselves in a spot that could cost them a first-round home game. Last Week: 10 | Title Odds: +1700
11
USC
My favorite sub-plot about USC's game against Oregon this week will be the battle to prove who the biggest and baddest Big Ten Football Team is. After beating Iowa, Lincoln Riley was once again hyping up how his team won a Big Ten Football Game. The same way he did after beating Michigan, and the same way Dan Lanning did after beating Iowa. Now these Big Ten Football Teams are going to play a Big Ten Football Game between Old Pac-12 Rivals, and there's a possible playoff spot, and maybe even a Big Ten Championship Game spot on the line. Last Week: 12 | Title Odds: +8000
12
Miami (Fla.)
Given where it has been ranked the last couple of weeks, I don't know that there's anything Miami can do to get a playoff spot, even if it wins out. However, I would suggest it keep doing what it's done the last two weeks: blow teams the hell out. It certainly can't hurt! After beating Syracuse 38-10, the Canes put a 41-7 whooping on NC State. Can they maintain that level on the road this week against Virginia Tech? Last Week: Not Ranked | Title Odds: +7500

Fell outside Top 12: Texas