Every week the CFP Vibe Check tries to put its finger on where things stand in the College Football Playoff race without overreacting to what it just saw, but also probably overreacting to everything it just saw.
In the not-so-long history of the College Football Playoff, there are only two teams that have managed to finish ranked in the final CFP ranking each season: Ohio State and Alabama. What's even more impressive for the Buckeyes is that they've never finished a season ranked lower than No. 7.
That means if there had been a 12-team field since the inception of the CFP, Ohio State would've made it every year. Even Alabama would've missed out in 2019.
Yet, here we are, in the third season of the actual 12-team field, and there's a very real shot No. 2 Ohio State won't be in it. The Buckeyes lost to USC 30-18 Saturday night, continuing the 2026 season's theme of top teams losing to unranked teams. However, this loss probably shouldn't have been all that much of a shock.
Even if the Buckeyes were favored by a touchdown, they were still on the road with a first-time starter at QB, and a true freshman at that. And while USC may be perennially disappointing, there's quite a difference between a disappointing USC and a disappointing Rutgers. The Trojans have five-star recruits too.
Luke Fahey, the freshman in question, looked every bit the part. He overthrew open passes and learned that, no matter what seemingly everybody outside the program thought, it's not as easy as just "throw it to Jeremiah Smith." He panicked when pressured, and sometimes even only when he thought he was being pressured. There were presnap penalties that often accompany new QBs.
And there weren't nearly enough points on the scoreboard.
It was one of the uglier Ohio State performances of recent memory, and it's the second loss of the season, which drastically thins this team's margin of error going forward. I expect Fahey to improve the more he plays, but I don't know that he'll improve enough. Next week the Buckeyes will be back at home facing an Oregon team that suddenly looked like it got its act together in a 34-26 win over No. 20 Northwestern. Dylan Raiola threw for 336 yards and 3 touchdowns, and the explosive plays that had been lacking for most of the year returned.
I don't know if Ohio State can get past the version of Oregon I saw Saturday. Even if they do, I don't know that the version of Ohio State we saw can get past Northwestern, Nebraska and Michigan. Make no mistake about it: while the 19-15 win over Indiana is one of the better wins any team will be able to claim this season, the rest of the resume is looking a bit thin right now.
If the Buckeyes lose to Oregon and win out, would a 9-3 record with wins over Indiana and Iowa be enough to get in over other 9-3 SEC teams? Or if the Buckeyes beat Oregon, but drop one of those other three games, how much is the Oregon win worth? The Ducks would be an 8-4 team at best.
This is a brand new position for Ohio State in the playoff era. There will be a level of tension throughout Columbus in November that's never been felt before.
What about USC?
First of all, what an incredible outcome for Lincoln Riley's supporters and his haters. His supporters got a top-five win to crow about, and his haters got a top-five win with a giant asterisk on it since it was against a team without its starting quarterback.
While they argue with one another, there's no debate that this win does a lot for USC's playoff case. At DraftKings, USC's odds of making the playoff increased from +1900 (5%) pregame to +300 (25%) after the win.
But I'm not a believer in this team's hopes going forward. The win is great, but after a bye this weekend, the Trojans will be on the road to face No. 4 Indiana. The last time they went on the road, they lost 24-7 to Wisconsin. The same Wisconsin that lost 30-0 to Iowa on Saturday. They also have a date with still-undefeated UCLA at the Rose Bowl to finish the regular season.
You'll have to forgive me for not thinking that a win over an Ohio State team without Julian Sayin means the Trojans are about to run the table. With that 17-point loss to Wisconsin, I cannot see this USC team getting in at 9-3, and what if Ohio State collapses down the stretch? Suddenly that win looks pretty hollow in the eyes of the committee.
You did get that top-five win, though. Nobody can take that from you.
Respect Wake Forest
I know that, ultimately, every College Football Playoff ranking that's released before the final one is meaningless. However, the one aspect I appreciate about the meaningless rankings is that they give us a glimpse of what the committee thinks, and that's probably more valuable in a season like this one than it's been in previous seasons.
And I can't wait to see what the committee thinks of No. 14 Wake Forest. My instinct is that the Deacons will not be ranked inside the top 12 on Tuesday night. They play in the wrong conference, have the wrong logo on their helmet, and they don't have a signature win. The highlight of their resume is probably not getting killed by Miami in a 33-20 loss back in September.
But I kinda think this team is pretty good. Their schedule, compared to other contenders, is not very strong. However, the Demon Deacons are treating inferior competition the way you want to see a good team do so. After Saturday's 51-7 victory vs. Virginia on Saturday, they've won their last four games against Stanford, NC State, Cal and the Cavaliers by a combined score of 187-31. I know how you're reacting to that.
"Who cares? Those teams stink."
You're right, they do, but look around. Tell me how many other teams you've seen this season consistently dominate the teams that stink on their schedule. In a season in which it's made clearer every week that there isn't a truly dominant team, perhaps we should show some respect to one of the few teams that is dominating their opponents.
Miami isn't untouchable
The good news for No. 1 Miami is that it beat North Carolina 38-35 to improve to 8-0 on the season. The win moved Miami's odds to make the CFP at DraftKings from -3300 (97.1%) to -6000 (98.4%), tying them with Georgia for the best odds in the country. Basically, they're telling you that, even with a loss to Notre Dame next week, Miami's still highly likely to win the ACC and make the College Football Playoff.
That's all great news! The problem is, did you see the score I mentioned above? Yeah, Miami only beat North Carolina by three points, and it actually trailed at times in both the third and fourth quarters. North Carolina's Billy Edwards threw for 341 yards and four touchdowns. This was a couple of weeks after Florida State's Ashton Daniels threw for four touchdowns against the Canes as well.
The Miami team that dominated early this year has begun to show some vulnerabilities on defense. The kind that could certainly impact them against Notre Dame next week, and in the College Football Playoff in the highly likely event the Canes make the field.
Of course, even with the defensive question marks, Miami still has Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney, and sometimes the best defense is a good offense. Still, it's worth monitoring going forward because while a loss to No. 5 Notre Dame alone won't keep the Canes out, it could have an impact on their seeding.
The Big 12 dust is settling
While the dreams of three-bigs in the Big 12 died last week with Texas Tech's loss at Cincinnati, the league's overall picture has become clearer, and it's basically the picture we all expected to see. No. 6 Utah shoved Houston out of it last week, and No. 13 Texas Tech responded to its loss by pushing Arizona out of the picture this week with a 34-26 victory. In Ames, Iowa State pretended it was 2011 all over again and ended Oklahoma State's already slim playoff hopes too by defeating the Cowboys 51-49.
Tech may have also found an identity in the process. Thomas Castellanos started at QB over Will Hammond, and he gave you a Thomas Castellanos performance. He hit a few big plays in the passing game while being pretty inaccurate, and used his legs to great effect. I don't know if it's the kind of formula that can lead Texas Tech on a playoff run, but it's the kind that could at least get the Red Raiders back to the playoff.
Utah obliterated Cincinnati 49-25 in a game that was 42-6 at halftime to keep the Utes undefeated. As a result, they're the only Big 12 team with implied odds of better than 50% of making the CFP field (they're at 70.6%. Utah could put a stranglehold on a Big 12 Championship Game appearance with a win next week against BYU.
Speaking of BYU, I'm not sure what happened Saturday in its 27-20 victory vs. Arizona State. Perhaps the Cougars completely closed up shop at halftime and started to prepare for Utah, but letting a zombified Arizona State team battle back from a 17-3 deficit to tie the game at 17-17 late in the third quarter wasn't a great look. This team has not looked nearly as good as the team that beat Notre Dame in its two games since, and next week is probably a must-win for the Cougars.
The G6 race might get weird
If you didn't stay up until the wee hours of the morning to watch No. 29 Boise State's 46-45 win over Texas State, shame on you. You'll have to figure out a way to live with yourself, because this game went off the rails.
Boise State had a 28-3 lead at halftime, and that lead evaporated stunningly fast. Texas State reeled off 36 unanswered in the first 23 minutes of the second half to take a 39-28 lead. Then Boise State QB Maddux Madsen left the game with an injury, and in came somebody named Max Cutforth who had to save Boise State's season.
And he did.
Max Cutforth put forth a heroic effort, throwing for 131 yards and 3 touchdowns in a quarter and a half! Boise State somehow won 46-45 to maintain control of the Pac-12 race. Oregon State's loss to Fresno State only improved matters for the Broncos.
But we don't know the extent of Madsen's injury, or how it could impact Boise State going forward. The Broncos still must play Oregon State and could face the Beavers again in the Pac-12 Championship. I don't know how the committee would view a two-loss Boise State team, especially if there are one-loss teams from the other leagues.
The Broncos still have the best odds of making the field at DraftKings among G6 teams, but New Mexico, UTSA, and even Liberty all closed the gap considerably this week.
Rest In CFPeace
Each week for the rest of the season we shall recognize the schools who saw their playoff hopes die over the weekend
- Auburn
- Cincinnati
- James Madison
- Minnesota
- Nebraska
- North Carolina
- Oklahoma
- Oklahoma State
- Oregon State
- UCF
- Wisconsin
Week 10 Vibe Shifters
A look ahead to the five games on next week's slate most likely to impact the playoff race
- No. 1 Miami at No. 5 Notre Dame
- No. 8 BYU at No. 6 Utah
- No. 10 Alabama at No. 15 LSU
- No. 3 Georgia at No. 12 Ole Miss
- Oregon at No. 2 Ohio State
This week's CFP Projection
This is a projection of what I expect the top 12 to be Tuesday night
Boise State will be the highest ranked G6 school.
