Tom Fornelli's College Football Power Ratings: Penn State leaps Georgia as Big Ten teams own top three spots
Right behind the Big Ten, however, the SEC has the next fives spots locked down
By
Tom Fornelli
•
9 min read
If you're a fan of the ACC and Big 12, perhaps you want to stop reading right now. If you feel like the college football world is against you and everybody is conspiring to relegate your conference to minor league status, this is not the story for you.
These power ratings certainly suggest the Big Ten and SEC are operating at a different level. There is more movement in the ratings this week, though most of the bigger changes come outside the top 12 programs we list here. As you peruse this week's list, the first thing you'll notice is that the top three teams come from the Big Ten.
Penn State jumped past Georgia for third this week because of a slight downgrade to Georgia's defensive metrics following an incredible 44-41 road win over Tennessee. Don't worry, Dawgs fans, the gap between you and Penn State is razor thin. In fact, it's so close that if Ellis Robinson knocks down a pass instead of allowing a touchdown, you might still be in third.
Anyway, after you get past that top three, eight of the next nine teams are from the SEC. Miami is the only school from outside the two leagues to crack the top 12 this week, as Notre Dame fell out and was replaced by the Texas A&M team that beat it.
If you're wondering, outside the top 12, four of the next five teams come from the Big Ten or SEC as well, as Notre Dame's the only other team to crack the top 17. The highest-rated Big 12 team is Utah at No. 18. Florida State is the next-highest ACC team at No. 22, and if that feels low, the Seminoles began the season in the 50s. It's a remarkable climb in a short amount of time.
While I am -- and always will be -- an advocate for current-season results mattering more than hypotheticals when it comes to putting together the field for the College Football Playoff, these power ratings are predictive, and they accurately reflect which two leagues are home to the teams expected to win on a weekly basis.
National title odds below via Fanduel Sportsbook.
2025 Preseason Fornelli Power Ratings
| 1 |  |
| We didn't learn a whole lot about the Buckeyes in their 37-9 win over Ohio that we didn't already know. Obviously, the offense has looked better against Grambling and the Bobcats than it did against Texas, but I do have some concerns about Ohio State's overall rushing attack. There are big hits, but this team and offensive line have struggled a bit consistently, hitting singles. But saying that, we're picking nits. The Buckeyes are off this week and then have a road test against Washington that could provide plenty of insight. Last week: 1 | National Title Odds: +550 | |
| 2 |  |
| The Ducks got off to a somewhat sluggish start in their early Saturday game against Northwestern, but they eventually found their gear. The final score was 34-14, but the Ducks were up 34-0 over halfway through the fourth quarter before the Wildcats scored two touchdowns in the final 6 minutes. The numbers allowed in garbage time like that are considered when adjusting these ratings, so there was no impact on the Ducks' standing this week. Last week: 2 | National Title Odds: +650 | |
| 3 |  |
| Penn State remains a difficult evaluation because of the competition and the fact that we can't be sure what the team's goals are in these games. My read is the Nittany Lions have been doing just enough to win and win comfortably, but they haven't taken the engine out of first gear. We will have a much clearer idea of who this team is, as well as who Oregon is, when the Lions and Ducks clash in Happy Valley in Week 5. They're both taking this week off to prepare for it. Last week: 4 | National Title Odds: +650 | |
| 4 |  |
| The Vols, as they tend to do against Georgia, came out very strong in Knoxville to jump out to a 21-7 lead after the first quarter. Then, Georgia did the thing Georgia does. It made the proper defensive adjustments, found what was working on offense and outscored the Vols 37-20 the rest of the way. It was one of the most impressive wins we've seen from any team this season, and it looks good on the resume, but while Georgia won, it should still be clear that this Dawgs team is not the juggernaut of a few years ago. There are holes, and it is a young team figuring things out, which makes the win even more impressive. Last week: 3 | National Title odds: +700 | |
| 5 |  |
| I've said since it happened that we were all likely overreacting to Alabama's season-opening loss to Florida State because that's what we do to big upsets that happen early in the season. Since that game, though, Alabama has outscored ULM and Wisconsin 111-14, and Ty Simpson has looked incredible running the offense. Meanwhile, Florida State has continued to play well and looks like a serious playoff threat, even if it's not yet cracking our top 12 here (of the 21 teams ahead of FSU in our ratings, Miami is the only one on its schedule). Like Georgia, this is a very good team with a few question marks, but we can say that about damn near everybody. Among the SEC, it feels like the "safest" bet outside Athens right now. Last week: 6 | National Title Odds: +1500 | |
| 6 |  |
| Here is the team that's confounding me. I've adjusted Texas' overall rating, but I don't know that I've adjusted it enough. The defense truly looks outstanding and has every single week, particularly in the opener against Ohio State. But the offense is an entirely different story. I was happy to write off Arch Manning's performance against the Buckeyes as a one-off, but it's somehow gotten worse since. To be blunt, Manning was awful against UTEP this weekend. He was missing throws by yards, not feet or inches -- and not only when he was pressured, but when he had clean pockets. It's a legitimate concern and one that must be monitored going forward, because while this defense will keep Texas in damn near every game, the 'Horns will have to score enough points to beat the teams remaining on the schedule. Last week: 5 | National Title Odds: +700 | |
| 7 |  |
| Outside Florida State, there hasn't been a team that's risen quite like the Sooners in my ratings, at least not among Power Four teams (shout out Old Dominion). There is a lot of volatility around the young man known as John Mateer, but there's been far more positive than negative to this point, even following a somewhat pedestrian performance in a 42-3 win over Temple. The Sooners get another litmus test this week against Auburn, and if they win comfortably, there's a strong chance they'll be ahead of Texas in these ratings by the time the rivals meet at the Cotton Bowl. Last week: 11 | National Title Odds: +2500 | |
| 8 |  |
| Since the dawn of time, college football coaches have made the wrong decision about their quarterback, even ones who are QB gurus like Lane Kiffin have made the mistake. After what I saw of Trinidad Chambliss against Arkansas, I'm strongly wondering if Kiffin made such a gaffe choosing Austin Simmons as his starter. Yes, Arkansas' defense stinks (and Ole Miss ain't great either), but Chambliss looked phenomenal in Simmons' place against the Razorbacks. Plus, what a name! A QB with a name that good has to be worth a half-point in any power rating worth its salt, right? Last week: 8 | National Title Odds: +5000 | |
| 9 |  |
| I'm sure plenty of skeptics are waiting for the other shoe to drop with Miami because of what seemingly always happens with Miami. Last year, this team got off to a 9-0 start before losing two of its final three in the regular season to blow its chance at the playoff. But the signs were there long before those losses, as Miami played with its food too often thanks to a defense that couldn't stop anyone. This year's team is different. This defense is outstanding, and while Carson Beck might not be Cam Ward, the gap between them isn't as wide as some may believe. Miami's next three games will decide its season. If they get through them with three wins or only one loss, I believe they're a damn near lock to make the playoff. The gap between them and the rest of the ACC -- with the exception of Florida State -- is enormous. Last week: 12 | National Title Odds: +1700 | |
| 10 |  |
| Brian Kelly might not be in the mood to talk about it after a win, but that doesn't mean this LSU offense isn't presenting serious concerns. Its performance is the driving factor behind the Tigers slipping three spots, even following a win over Florida. The Gators handed LSU five turnovers, and they still couldn't put them away, only winning by 10. They're yet to score more than 23 points in a game, and while wins over Clemson and Florida feel like good wins, those teams are currently a combined 2-4 with losses to Georgia Tech and South Florida on their resumes. The only teams they've beaten are Troy and Long Island. Meanwhile, the only team with a winning record that LSU's beaten is Louisiana Tech. The defense has been a revelation, however, and I was very impressed by its performance after losing captain Whit Weeks to a targeting penalty early against the Gators. Last week: 7 | National Title Odds: +1100 | |
| 11 |  |
| The Vols don't budge after their loss to Georgia. There's nothing to be ashamed about, even though I know how much it stings. The irony on my end is that I feel better about Tennessee's QB situation afterward. Joey Aguilar is far from perfect, and some of those moon balls leave results a little too up to chance, but he hits the singles and doubles. Nico Iamaleava didn't. Aguilar is accurate and operates the offense efficiently, which is an upgrade over what Tennessee dealt with last year. It also helps make up a bit for the slippage on defense compared to the Vols team that made the playoff last year. That unit needs to get healthy, or it'll find itself in too many shootouts like the one it just lost. Last week: 11 | National Title Odds: +3300 | |
| 12 |  |
| The Aggies were No. 13 last week and climb a spot this week. I will not ask this team to apologize for anything that happened in South Bend. I don't know how sustainable the performance was from Marcel Reed (he completed only 46% of his passes while averaging 21.2 yards per completion), but it's hard to argue that the Aggies don't have two strong options at WR in Mario Craver and KC Concepcion. The concern here is the defense. You want to give up 33 points to Notre Dame (the Irish blocked a punt for one of their TDs), fine, but when you do it after letting UTSA and Utah State move the ball on you as well? It's a concern. There's always been some red zone roulette to Mike Elko's defensive scheme, but right now the Aggies are allowing 4.64 points per red zone possession, and it ranks 85th nationally. Last week: Not Ranked | National Title Odds: +2500 | |
Fell outside top 12: Notre Dame
