The Six Pack: Picks for Ohio State vs. Texas, LSU vs. Clemson and Tom Fornelli's lock for Week 1 action

The college football offseason feels so long that, when games finally arrive, it's hard not to dive into deeper waters than you should. You want to consume all of it because you missed it so much.

I know, I'm right there with you.

But betting the first games of the season can be tricky, and it feels even more difficult this year, considering the amount of overhaul among rosters across the country. It's not just the transfer portal that's led to players moving around; the COVID eligibility players are finally cycling out, which has opened up roster spots that hadn't been available for a while.

This leads to plenty of unknowns and a lot of semi-educated guessing when it comes to figuring out what teams will look like before we see them in action. So I advise all of you to take a more cautious approach this weekend. We've got five days of football to watch, so I know it's easier said than done, but try your best.

I've combed through all the action, and these are the six games I'm most confident in. That confidence could be shaken quickly, but thankfully, it's the first weekend of many. We'll have plenty of time to recover from possible mistakes.

Games of the Week

No. 1 Texas at No. 3 Ohio State: They wear different colors and play in different leagues, but these teams are damn near perfect reflections of one another coming into the 2025 season. Both are expected to compete for conference and national titles. Both have new starting quarterbacks who were highly rated out of high school. Both are replacing key players along both sides of the ball and along the lines of scrimmage. If you read my power ratings earlier this week, you know I have them as the two highest-rated teams in the country.

And I have no idea who will win this game. The spread is what it is for good reason. However, the fact that Ohio State is only a 1.5-point favorite at home suggests the market feels Texas is the better team. It might be. If the Longhorns came out and got revenge for last year's semifinal loss, it certainly wouldn't be a surprise. But my power ratings have Ohio State being slightly better than the Longhorns, and they have the homefield advantage. It's a bit of a coin flip, but I'm siding with the home team here. Regardless, it's an incredible matchup to start the season, and it could have huge ramifications down the road for both. 

No. 9 LSU at No. 4 Clemson: Much of the college football world seems convinced Clemson is back in 2025, largely because of how much production returns in a year when few other teams can say the same. On the surface, it makes sense. But it's also worth noting those same players were blown out 34-3 by Georgia in last season's opener. They also lost at home to Louisville and rival South Carolina. Experience should bring improvement -- and playing this year's game at home helps -- but given how often Clemson's offense sputtered against quality opponents in 2024, it's hard to fully buy into the hype.

LSU, meanwhile, has one of the nation's highest ceilings if things click. Quarterback play is elite, three future NFL receivers lead the passing game, the backfield is deep, and the defense has upside. The concern: four new starters on the offensive line facing one of the best defensive fronts they'll see all year. That matchup could keep the offense from finding rhythm. This game could play out in several ways, but a high-scoring shootout feels unlikely.

Lock of the Week

No. 8 Alabama at Florida State: I'll start by saying Florida State will be better this season than last. That's not exactly going out on a limb, but I like to begin with something positive before burying a team. Now for the hard truth.

When it comes to roster talent, Florida State is still the third-best team in the ACC. The problem is the gap between the Seminoles and Clemson and Miami is widening by the year. At this point, when I look at Florida State's roster, it resembles what I usually see at Louisville, NC State, Pitt or now SMU -- solid programs, but not the conference elite.

That's not how Florida State is supposed to look. This is a program that's supposed to measure up with the best of the best. Instead, it's running Gus Malzahn's gimmicky offense with a try-hard quarterback in Boston College transfer Thomas Castellanos. There isn't a single area in this matchup where I see Florida State on Alabama's level, except maybe at quarterback, where Ty Simpson is still a question mark for the Tide. The game being in Tallahassee helps, but honestly, I expect the margin to be closer to three touchdowns than two.

Hold Your Nose Play of the Week

Ball State at Purdue: I didn't come here expecting anybody to be excited about the prospect of betting on Purdue. I know I'm not. Purdue was the worst Power Four program in the country last year, and there isn't much reason to expect things to be too much better in 2025. However, Barry Odom has brought in a brand new roster, and there's some familiarity with players who have joined from UNLV. Life in the Big Ten will remain tough, but the season's first couple of weeks will provide this new coaching staff and team something to hold onto before conference play begins.

Ball State could be one of the worst teams in the country this season. It's the season opener, at home, with a brand new coaching staff. If Purdue can't put together a full 60 minutes here and pound the Cardinals into submission, it's going to be another extremely difficult year. 

Over of the Week

UNLV at Sam Houston State (Friday): It's worth remembering every season that you don't want to reach concrete conclusions about teams based upon their first games of the season, particularly when it's a brand new coaching staff. That said, there were parts of watching UNLV struggle to beat Idaho State last week that are hard for me to ignore. In short, the Rebels could have one of the more explosive and exciting offenses in the Mountain West. However, they may really need it because my goodness, did the defense look horrific.

Now, part of that's to be expected when your roster is brand new and full of transfers, but I don't know that one game will be enough to work out the kinks. As for Sam Houston, the Bearkats allowed 41 points to Western Kentucky last week, and it could've been far worse. I'm not expecting the punters to get a lot of action here. 

Upset of the Week

Auburn at Baylor (Friday): I look at Auburn's roster and see a team that, on paper, could be extremely good in 2025 -- the kind of team that can catch us all off guard and make a legitimate playoff run. 

On paper. 

The problems begin with everything else. I'm sure you've heard Hugh Freeze mention the possibility of playing all three quarterbacks in this game and using multiple playcallers. None of that strikes me as a good thing! Nor does the fact that Auburn announced its four captains this week, and none of them are the QB. There is clearly uncertainty surrounding the most important position on offense.

That uncertainty does not exist on the Baylor side. Sawyer Robertson is the unquestioned QB1 for the Bears, and he was excellent last season, with little fanfare. Between Robertson, running back Bryson Washington and wide receiver Josh Cameron, the Bears offense has a trio I'm high on. One that should be able to make some noise against Auburn, particularly at home. Auburn has one of the most impressive WR groups in the country, but there's so much uncertainty about who will get them the ball. Auburn is favored here because of its talent, but the potential chaos on offense and the experience of the Bears makes me think Baylor's a very live dog here.