Texas vs. Florida prediction, pick, odds, spread: Arch Manning, Longhorns hit the road to open SEC play
The Gators and Longhorns both hope to get their offenses back on track
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2 min read
Texas (3-1) travels to Florida in a potential lookahead spot before the Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma. Since dropping the opener to No. 3 Ohio State, the Longhorns haven't faced another power conference opponent. Their last outing was a 55-0 rout of Sam Houston before last week's open date.
Florida (1-3) has dropped all three games against FBS competition, including back-to-back losses to No. 3 LSU and No. 4 Miami. The Gators have managed only 11.0 points per game in that stretch and failed to score in the first half of last week's 26-7 loss to Miami. After Texas, the road doesn't get easier â Florida travels to No. 6 Texas A&M next week.
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Texas and Florida have met only four times. Last season's game marked their first matchup since 1940, with the Longhorns improving to 3-1 all-time after a 49-17 blowout. Quarterback Quinn Ewers threw five touchdown passes in that win.
Where to watch Texas vs. Florida live
Date: Saturday, Oct. 4 | Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium -- Gainesville, Florida
TV: ESPN | Live stream: Fubo (Try for free)
Follow along for LIVE updates, highlights and analysis as the Longhorns hit the road to take on the Gators.
Texas vs. Florida: Need to know
Manning's struggles: Texas quarterback Arch Manning entered the season as the consensus Heisman favorite, but his play has been uneven. He threw for just 38 yards and an interception through three quarters in the opener against Ohio State, then managed 114 yards on 44% completions vs. UTEP. Against Sam Houston, he looked much sharper with 309 yards and three touchdowns â though the Bearkats rank bottom-five nationally in total defense. Saturday offers a better test against a top-25 unit.
Lagway's woes: Florida quarterback DJ Lagway has been even shakier. Battling multiple injuries, he threw five interceptions in a 20-10 loss to LSU and followed it with just 61 yards passing on 2.7 yards per attempt vs. Miami. Protection remains a problem for the Gators, and Texas brings one of the most aggressive pass rushes in the country.
Third-down battle: The game could swing on key downs. Texas leads the nation in opponent third- and fourth-down success rate, anchored by All-America candidates Anthony Hill, Colin Simmons and Michael Taaffe. Florida ranks No. 133 in offensive conversion rate. If the Gators can't extend drives, Simmons and the Longhorns' front may take over.
Texas vs. Florida prediction, picks
The Texas offense has some real concerns that Florida could pick apart, but the Longhorns' defense is positioned to obliterate Florida's passing game. Ten different players have recorded a sack through the first four games, even though superstar linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. hasn't gotten on the board yet. The Longhorns will dominate the line of scrimmage and hold Florida to 10 or fewer points for the third straight game in an ugly -- yet effective -- victory at The Swamp. Pick: Texas -7
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