Texas vs. Vanderbilt prediction, picks, odds, spread: Commodores meet Longhorns in key SEC showdown
The Longhorns are hosting the Commodores in a top-20 SEC battle with CFP implications
By
David Cobb
•
4 min read
No. 20 Texas plays host to No. 9 Vanderbilt for the first time since 1903 on Saturday in a battle of top-20 SEC teams jockeying for positioning ahead of the first College Football Playoff rankings next week. The Commodores (7-1, 3-1 SEC) are in the midst of a historic season that includes consecutive victories over top-15 opponents.
The vibes are bit different for the No. 20 Longhorns (6-2, 3-1), who enter on the heels of consecutive narrow road wins against SEC bottom feeders Kentucky and Mississippi State. Texas, which began the season at No. 1 in the AP poll, is clinging to its CFP hopes as enters a November slate that features three games against top-10 opponents.
Perhaps the biggest story entering this one is the health of Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning. The redshirt sophomore has been in concussion protocol since taking an overtime shot in Texas' win at Mississippi State last week. Manning was listed as questionable on Wednesday's injury report. The backup is Troy transfer Matthew Caldwell, a veteran who entered and threw a go-ahead touchdown against the Bulldogs.
Vanderbilt counters with quarterback Diego Pavia, a 24-year old program legend who has helped change the trajectory of the Commodores during his two seasons on campus. Pavia will be out for revenge after he was intercepted twice in a 27-24 home los to Texas last season.
Texas vs. Vanderbilt: Need to know
Flashing back: These teams met for the first time since 1928 last season in a ranked battle that the Longhorns won 27-24. The stakes were high, as Vanderbilt came in riding a three-game winning streak that helped catapult it into the AP poll for the first time since 2013. Texas, by contrast, had just lost the No. 1 spot in the AP poll with a home defeat against Georgia the week before and was seeking to find its direction. Every yard was a struggle for the Commodores in a game that was decided when Texas recovered an onside kick in the final minute. While Texas has the advantage of playing at home this time, Vanderbilt has only improved since then, and the Longhorns have failed to meet the standards they set while winning the SEC Championship last season.
Sputtering offense: While the inconsistency of Texas quarterback Arch Manning is a highlight talking point surrounding the Longhorns, it's far from their only issue. Texas' rushing offense, or lack thereof, has only made life more difficult on its passing attack. The Longhorns are 90th nationally in rushing offense at 139.8 yards per game after struggling on the ground in October. Texas surpassed 100 yards rushing just once in four games during the month, and that was when it averaged a pedestrian 3.9 yards per attempt in a win over Oklahoma. In a loss at Florida and in narrow victories over Kentucky and Mississippi State, the Longhorns' rushing attack was nonexistent. That must get remedied soon if Texas is going to salvage its season.
Historic moment: This is a historic moment for the No. 9 Commodores, as they are ranked in the top 10 of the AP poll for the first time since 1947. It's the first time since 1941 that Vanderbilt has started 7-1, and it's also the first time the 'Dores have defeated three ranked teams in a season. That historic success is reflected in a key metric that was recorded in Vanderbilt's game notes for this week: the Commodores are one of just five teams in college football ranked in the top 25 in both rushing offense and defense. In other words, this isn't a fluke operation buoyed by some gimmicky, high-powered offense. Fifth-year coach Clark Lea has built a program that is strong and deep along the lines of scrimmage and more than capable of going on the road to hang with one of the sport's historical powers.
Where to watch Texas vs. Vanderbilt live
Date: Saturday, Nov. 1 | Time: 12 p.m. ET
Location: Darrell K. Royal Stadium -- Austin, Texas
TV: ABC | Live stream: Fubo (Try for free)
Texas vs. Vanderbilt prediction, picks
Texas has been living a risky life the past two weeks in narrow road wins over Kentucky and Mississippi State that have further illustrated its shortcomings. The Longhorns have no running game, erratic quarterback play and are not elite enough defensively to squash quality opponents into submission. Vanderbilt is running the football well and has a quarterback in Diego Pavia who keeps the chains moving. The Commodores are strong on both lines of scrimmage and bring much better vibes into this game than a Texas team that is struggling to meet the expectations associated with being ranked No. 1 in the preseason. Pick: Vanderbilt +3
Who will win and cover in each Week 10 college football game? Legendary Vegas expert Bruce Marshall is on a 21-7 roll on college football picks. Visit SportsLine now to see all his college football picks.
