joey-aguilar-tennessee-volunteers.jpg
Imagn Images

The biggest game of the year in the state of Tennessee takes place on Saturday, and the Volunteers have the chance to spoil the College Football Playoff hopes of one of the top surprises of the 2025 college football season with Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee taking place on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET. Vanderbilt has already secured its first winning regular season since 2013, and as the No. 14 team in the current College Football Playoff rankings, the Commodores still have a chance to be one of the 12 teams in the CFP. However, a loss to No. 19 Tennessee sinks that possibility. But the Vols don't care about Vanderbilt's CFP hopes; they are looking to win this intra-state rivalry matchup for state supremacy. The Vols are the host on Saturday, and with that, the SportsLine Projection Model likes Tennessee's chances to win and cover as 2.5-point favorites, making the Volunteers one of its best bets to build a Tennessee parlay that pays nearly 6-1 at FanDuel Sportsbook. 

The model also likes a pair of Overs for Tennessee football teams, taking Over 52.5 points in Middle Tennessee vs. New Mexico State on Saturday and Over 41.5 points in Titans vs. Jaguars on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET to complete its Tennessee parlay at FanDuel. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 13 on a 49-33 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. It is also profitable on its top-rated money-line and over/under picks since the beginning of the 2024 season. Anybody following its NFL betting picks and college football betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Three Tennessee betting picks for NFL and college football (odds subject to change): 

  • Tennessee (-2.5) vs. Vanderbilt
  • Middle Tennessee vs. New Mexico State: Over 52.5 total points
  • Titans vs. Jaguars: Over 41.5 total points

Combining the model's three picks into a parlay at FanDuel would result in a payout of +570 (risk $100 to win $570).

Tennessee (-2.5) vs. Vanderbilt (-114, FanDuel)

Tennessee is 79-33-5 all-time against Vanderbilt, including winning each of the last four meetings. The Vols defeated Vanderbilt, 36-23, on the road last season, and they will host in Knoxville on Saturday. No. 14 Vanderbilt (9-2, 5-2 SEC) has a better record and ranking than No. 19 Tennessee (8-3, 4-3), but all three of the Volunteers' losses have come to teams currently in the top 10 of the CFP rankings. Vanderbilt has only played one team currently in the top 10, which resulted in a 30-14 loss to Alabama. Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar is ninth in the nation in passing yards (3,145), and the Vols haven't lost to a team currently outside of the top 10. The model projects Tennessee to win and cover in 58% of simulations.

Middle Tennessee vs. New Mexico State: Over 52.5 total points (-115, FanDuel)

Middle Tennessee is 108th in the nation in scoring defense, allowing 31.3 ppg this season, including allowing 34 ppg over its last five contests. However, its offense has been respectable, especially lately, averaging 27.2 ppg over those same five contests. That resulted in the Over hitting in three of five games, as a trend the model expects to continue on Saturday. New Mexico State's defense isn't much better, allowing 29.7 ppg this season, which ranks 93rd in the country, and it has allowed 33 points over its last four games. Both Middle Tennessee and New Mexico State are coming off scoring more than 30 points, leading the model to project offensive success on both sides. The Over hits in 57% of the model's simulations.

Titans vs. Jaguars: Over 41.5 total points (-110, FanDuel)

Cam Ward had one of the best games of his rookie season last week, completing 28 of 42 passes for 256 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 37 yards and a score as the Titans fought the Seahawks tough in a 30-24 loss. Ward has gone three straight games without an interception, which is a promising sign of a rookie progressing later into his first NFL season. He's thrown for more than 220 yards in five of his last seven games, as without an upper-tier group of playmakers at the skill position, the No. 1 overall pick has shown signs of why he was the top pick. Meanwhile, the Jacksonville offense has also performed better in recent weeks, averaging 30.3 ppg over its last four games, while allowing 26.2 ppg over its last five contests. This Over has hit in three of the last four Jaguars games, leading the model to project the Over to hit in 57% of simulations.