The Six Pack: Picks for Ohio State vs. Texas, Oklahoma vs. Michigan and Tom Fornelli's lock for Week 2

How can you not love college football?

The NFL is starting this week, and the big talk around the league is primarily centered around questions like, "do you think he'll be listed on the injury report," or "are the Rams waiting too long to travel to Australia?" Meanwhile, in college football, we're only a week into the season, and we've already had one officiating controversy/conspiracy over a mysterious clock only a select few people can see, and the SEC threatening to kick LSU out of the conference.

As for that clock controversy, while I believe what happened to Western Michigan in their 13-12 loss to Michigan was horrible, the incident should also serve as a lesson. Now, I'm not going to swim in the "the Big Ten protected Michigan and it's all one big conspiracy" waters. That seems far too complicated an operation to pull off on the spot. I prefer to buy into the "refs blow calls all the time, and they simply screwed up this process the same way they screw up multiple replay reviews every week."

But the lesson is that replay reviews need to be totally transparent in this day and age. You are reading a column at this very moment in which I give you gambling advice. You are doing this because you are probably looking to bet on college football games this weekend. Leagues, conferences, and the networks that broadcast them all accept money from the places where you're looking to bet. You cannot afford to have any hint of impropriety when there's so much on the line financially for everybody involved.

If the refs are going to get a call wrong, the whole world needs to watch them get it wrong in real time. If they are using a mysterious clock you'd never heard of until last week, despite watching football your entire life, you need to see it in real time. You need to hear them talking about how they're about to blow this call and screw over one of the teams by pure incompetence, without malice.

And, you know, you'll see them get a lot of calls correct, too. At the end of the day, the more everybody knows about the process, the less controversy and questions there will be. The ACC has been doing this for a while, and the Big Ten announced it would do do the same from here on out. 

Every league has to do it for every game. It will be annoying at times, but reviews already are. Perhaps this way we'll all learn to be a bit more empathetic and understanding of mistakes and why they happen.

Speaking of being empathetic and understanding, the column got off to a 3-3 start last week. Honestly, I'll take it. This week, the trick is to take what we've learned from everybody so far and figure out what was real and what was just dumb luck.

Games of the Week

No. 1 Ohio State at No. 4 Texas: Here's a stat you're likely to hear if you haven't heard it already: in the last 10 years, when the No. 1 team in the AP Top 25 is an underdog, not only is it 0-5 against the spread, but it's 0-5 straight up as well. That doesn't bode well for Ohio State here! However, that's not really a trend I care much about, and I don't think it holds much weight here. The trend I care far more about is this:

Since taking the Texas job in 2021, Steve Sarkisian has faced a top-10 team 14 times. He's 5-9 straight up and against the spread in those games. As a favorite, he's 3-4 and 2-5 ATS. Now, there's some additional context needed here. A .357 win percentage in these games might not seem great, but compared to the 60 teams that have played at least five top-10 opponents in that span, it ranks 20th. So it's well above the .282 average win rate.

Still, it speaks to my questions about this iteration of Texas. The program is in a great spot, but against the elite, it continues to come up short. Ohio State does not. Ohio State is 12-8 against top-10 teams since 2021. That .600 winning percentage trails only Georgia, the other team that has tormented Texas in recent years.

That is not my way of saying Texas cannot win this game. The Longhorns very much can. They are one of the most talented teams in the country, and even if they have lost to Ohio State each of the last two seasons, it's not as if the Buckeyes have blown the doors off them. Plus, this game is in Austin, which certainly plays to Texas' favor. It's just, at this point, in games like this, Ohio State has inspired more trust than Texas has. The Pick: Ohio State +1.5 (-108) at DraftKings

No. 11 Oklahoma at Michigan: It feels like the whole world ran to their phones to place a bet on Oklahoma after watching Michigan struggle to beat Western Michigan last week. The spread moved quite a bit in the Sooners' favor and while I understand the impulse, I'm not particularly interested in following everybody else's lead.

The smarter attack angle here is the total. Say what you want about Michigan's offense last week (and last season), but the defense looked mostly fine. Yes, they let Western Michigan go on a 20-play drive in the fourth quarter, but the unit had been on the field damn near the entire game because the offense hadn't done anything since its opening possession. They were tired. I still believe the Wolverines can do a decent job of slowing down Oklahoma's offense, particularly at home.

I'm also extremely confident that Oklahoma's defense, which might be the best in the country, can slow down Michigan. We know Oklahoma uses John Mateer in the run game a lot, and I suspect we'll see Bryce Underwood use his legs more than we've seen in the past here, too. So two good defenses and two offenses that could look to rely on their run game tells me this game isn't likely to be high-scoring. The Pick: Under 43.5 (-105) at DraftKings

Lock of the Week

Washington State at Kansas State: If you watched the Apple Cup on Sunday like I did, first, know that I feel your pain. It was not a fun game to watch. Second, you should know not to be fooled by the final score. Yes, Washington State hung around, but the 24-10 score doesn't tell the story. Washington did far more to keep the Cougars in that game than anything. Frankly, Wazzu looked like it could be the worst team in the new Pac-12 this season based on what I saw.

And I'm putting that belief to the test here. Kansas State looked terrific in a 71-3 win over Nicholls last week, and while I'm not reading too deeply into anything that happened there (it was Nicholls), I trust Collin Klein and this offense to do a much better job of moving the ball consistently than Washington did last week. I also believe the Wildcats' defense won't commit like four billion penalties on defense to keep Washington State drives alive as the Huskies did. The Pick: Kansas State -19.5 (-108) at DraftKings

Rebound of the Week

Southern Miss at Auburn: Auburn won the first game of the Alex Golesh Era, but it didn't feel like much of a victory. Golesh came in promising to bring an exciting offense from South Florida, but the Tigers were stymied by Baylor, managing only 17 points. Byrum Brown was particularly ineffective and turned the ball over three times.

It should be a much cleaner operation this week against Southern Miss. The Eagles are coming off a 49-3 win over Alcorn State, but this is still a brand-new team. When Charles Huff left for Memphis, he took damn near the entire roster with him. As a result, no team in the country returns less production than Southern Miss, and I don't know that they have the horses on defense to slow down Auburn. The combination of Southern's inability to stop Auburn and Auburn wanting to reassure the home crowd after last week has me believing we'll see the Tigers light it up this weekend. The Pick: Auburn Team Total Over 44.5 (-120) at DraftKings

Under of the Week

Memphis at Boise State: Boise State has received a lot of deserved praise after giving Oregon hell last week, and what we saw in Eugene is something I expect will continue for the Broncos throughout the season. In the end, Oregon's talent advantage won out, but I was extremely impressed by what I saw from Boise State's defensive line. Oregon was working in new starters on its offensive line, but even so, the Broncos' front did an effective job of making life difficult for them in the run game.

We've seen Memphis play twice now, and their defensive line has stood out as well. Both teams look like they could be stronger in that area than most of their competition at the Group of Six level, which is why they're both legitimate threats to reach the College Football Playoff this year, and why this game has such major implications for both -- even if it's not a conference game. I'm betting on both of those defensive lines to win out here, making it difficult for either team to move the ball consistently. The Pick: Under 54.5 (-105) at Fanduel

Upset of the Week

Wake Forest at Purdue: Picking upsets is not for the faint of heart, so here I am telling you to believe in Purdue. For this week, at least. Jake Dickert did a great job at Wake Forest last year, and I suspect he'll do it again this year. I totally understand why they'd be favored here, given how they performed last season, and how Purdue has performed the last few years.

But I also think this line is underestimating the Boilermakers a little bit. Listen, I'm not going to tell you that Purdue is going to surprise you this season and win a bunch of games. I will tell you, though, that while the Big Ten struggled overall last week (particularly outside the top five teams), Purdue didn't. Yes, it was Indiana State, but the Boilermakers looked competent in a way that they haven't in a couple of years. The defense looked a lot more cohesive, particularly in the run game. This game is far closer to a coin flip than the line suggests. The Pick: Purdue (+128) at Fanduel