The Six Pack: Picks for Texas vs. Texas A&M, Ohio State vs. Michigan and Tom Fornelli's lock of the week

The thing about the truth is that no matter how far you try to run from it, eventually you have to face it. And the truth is this: the 2025 season has been an unmitigated disaster for The Six Pack. After a 1-5 showing last week, this column sits at 34-44 on the season and down 14.66 units.

It's easily the worst year in the history of the column, and I've been writing it on CBSSports.com for 16 seasons. I've had losing years before, but the worst of them finished down roughly four units (that was before I started applying actual juice from sportsbooks, so it's an estimate). Even that is 10 units better than where things stand now. So even if I go 6-0 this week, this will still go down as our worst season.

So why keep going? A couple of reasons. One is that my editors are exacting revenge for having to deal with me all these years and are reveling in my weekly embarrassment. I don't blame them. The other is that you can still make money off this column by fading every pick I make.

And also, there's still time. Yes, this is the final week of the regular season, but we still have conference championships, bowl season and the College Football Playoff. There's a chance to save ourselves yet. That's right -- I've run from the truth once again. It won't catch me this time. I can feel it.

Games of the Week

No. 1 Ohio State at No. 15 Michigan: I know the recent history between these two. I also know what's on the line. If Michigan wins, it can knock Ohio State out of the Big Ten Championship and play its way into the CFP. There's also the pure satisfaction of beating the Buckeyes again. But none of that changes how I feel. It's not as if Ohio State wants this game any less than Michigan, and the fact is, I think the Buckeyes are simply better. Yes, that was true last year, too, but that Michigan defense was loaded with NFL talent. There are still a few pros on this year's unit, but not to the same level. I'm far less confident in its ability to get stops against this version of Ohio State's offense.

Ohio State spent the last two years trying to be TOUGH and PHYSICAL against Michigan to prove some point. This year's team hasn't run the ball particularly well, but it doesn't need to. It has one of the best passing quarterbacks and some of the best receivers in the country -- and I expect all of them to play.

As for Michigan's offense, there's no question the Wolverines have upgraded at quarterback and have the makings of an alpha receiver in Andrew Marsh. What they may not have -- and what they need far more than Ohio State -- is a reliable run game. Justice Haynes has missed four of the last five games with no sign of returning. His replacement Jordan Marshall is banged up and didn't play last week against Maryland. His outlook is more optimistic this week, but Michigan could still be without fullback Max Bredeson, who left the Maryland game on crutches.

Michigan has faced three defenses in the same universe as Ohio State's -- Oklahoma, USC and Wisconsin -- and the latter two aren't nearly as good as Oklahoma or Ohio State. The Wolverines scored 36 total points in those three games. Ohio State has allowed more than 10 points only twice this season (14 to Penn State, 16 to Illinois). I'm not saying Michigan isn't capable of breaking through. It's a rivalry game, and rivalry games get weird. But the more likely outcome is Ohio State winning by double digits. The Pick: Ohio State -10.5 (-104) at Fanduel

No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 16 Texas (Friday): This is a tricky spot for Texas A&M. The Aggies are on the road, facing an old rival, and they have far more to lose. At 11-0, they're one win away from the SEC Championship Game and a shot at both the conference title and possibly the No. 1 overall seed. But if they slip, they won't make it to Atlanta even if Georgia and Alabama win. A&M lacks tiebreaker advantages over either program thanks to a far easier SEC schedule -- yes, every SEC slate is tough, but some are undeniably softer than others.

Texas, meanwhile, has to win just to keep a puncher's chance at the playoff -- and to ruin its rival's perfect season. The Longhorns clearly haven't lived up to preseason expectations after opening at No. 1 and falling three times. It's hard to argue that qualifies as a good season. Still, the early hype has exaggerated the reaction to those losses. The Florida loss was brutal, but falling to Ohio State and Georgia is hardly disqualifying. That happens to just about everyone.

I genuinely believe Texas is capable of pulling the upset. The offense has found real rhythm over the last month and should have some success against the Aggies' defense. The concern is the other side of the ball. As Texas' offense has surged, its defense has faded. The Longhorns have allowed at least 31 points in four straight games and now face one of the most balanced, efficient offenses in the nation. That's a tough matchup.

Which is why I'm staying away from the spread. My instinct says the total is a touch low. It'll take at least 30 points to win, and neither team figures to pull too far away from the other. The Pick: Over 51.5 (-110) at Fanduel

Lock of the Week

UCF at BYU: There are plenty of Big 12 Championship Game scenarios for BYU, but there's also an extremely simple one: win and you're in. Even if BYU were to reach the title game and lose, that defeat would seriously damage its playoff hopes. If the Cougars win here and then fall to Texas Tech again, they could still slip in as an at-large.

So BYU has to win this game -- and it probably will. Have you seen UCF's offense on the road this season? It's horrific. Honestly, it hasn't been good anywhere. The Knights rank 96th nationally at 1.91 points per possession and 113th in success rate at 38.9%. But away from the Bounce House, things get downright bleak. In four road games, they've averaged just 0.91 points per possession and 10.8 points per game.

BYU doesn't have an elite defense, but it's a good one -- and it's a headache to deal with in Provo. The Pick: UCF Team Total Under 14.5 (-125) at Draftkings

Hat Game of the Week

Northwestern at Illinois: The most important rivalry game of the week -- if not of all time. There's a hat on the line here, people. Northwestern found itself in an unexpected shootout last week, beating Minnesota 38-35 to clinch bowl eligibility. Illinois, meanwhile, suffered a shocking 27-10 loss at Wisconsin. But that loss might actually work to our advantage here.

Falling to Wisconsin should serve as a bucket of cold water for the Illini, and this is a better matchup for them, even if Northwestern has the better record. Illinois' offensive line has struggled against the better defensive fronts it has faced, and for all of Wisconsin's problems, that defensive front is still solid. Northwestern, meanwhile, has struggled to stop competent passing offenses, and Illinois is far more effective through the air than on the ground.

And while Illinois' overall defensive numbers don't look great, a lot of that comes from games against Indiana, Ohio State and Washington. Against teams in Northwestern's tier, the Illini defense has been much stronger. The Pick: Illinois -7 (-108) at Draftkings

Over of the Week

Army at UTSA: UTSA's games at the Alamodome are a different animal than their road contests. The Roadrunners are averaging 50.2 points per game at home compared to just 21.7 on the road. Home games have also averaged 75.4 points total, helping the over go 5-0 and finish an average of 17.3 points above the final listed total.

Based on how UTSA has fared offensively against teams like East Carolina, Tulane, Rice, and even Texas A&M (on the road), they should move the ball effectively against Army. And Army, in turn, should have some success against the Roadrunners' defense. The Pick: Over 51.5 (-115) at Fanduel

Upset of the Week

Kentucky at Louisville: I'm 1-11 on these picks this year, so I get if Louisville fans are feeling suddenly confident about this weekend. I doubt it, though. They've been paying attention to their team and know things haven't gone well since the upset win over Miami in October. After following it with two wins, they've dropped three straight. Following a 20-19 loss to Clemson, QB Miller Moss spoke about cultural issues on the team that couldn't be fixed. He then suffered a weight-room injury that caused him to miss last week's 38-6 loss at SMU.

Now, Louisville coach Jeff Brohm says that if Moss is healthy this week, the Cards may still play two quarterbacks. That's not exactly a vote of confidence in Moss, but it could force Kentucky to prepare for two different styles. How much it matters is unclear. The vibes in Louisville are extremely low. Kentucky lost last week but had won three straight entering that game. The Wildcats have won six of the last eight meetings, and there's a good chance they make it seven of nine. The Pick: Kentucky (+124) at Drafkings