The Six Pack: Picks for Alabama vs. Oklahoma, Georgia vs. Texas and Tom Fornelli's lock for Week 12

It's November. The sun is going down earlier, the clouds are more prominent, and this week, there was suddenly a few inches of snow dumped on the ground where I live, north of Chicago. As if seasonal affective disorder isn't enough to get me feeling down, there was also what happened in The Six Pack last week.

It was another 3-3 week, but it was one in which it felt like I had my heart ripped out. Oregon and Iowa both had red zone turnovers in a game that finished with 34 points when we needed 41 to hit our over. Oregon State outgained Sam Houston State 474 yards to 157, yet somehow found a way to not only cover the spread but also lose the game outright. Then there was Auburn, our Upset of the Week. The Tigers led Vanderbilt 20-10 at halftime, and held a 30-24 lead after the third quarter. They lost in overtime.

It's enough to make me wonder if The Six Pack is cursed this year. No matter what we do, we're going 3-3. There's no escaping it.

Don't worry, I'm not letting it impact my picks for this week (though maybe I should because positivity sure hasn't worked), even if it feels that way when you see my picks. We're not picking a bunch of unders because we're sad and want the world to be sad with us. We're picking them for the same reason we make every pick here: we like the chances of it winning.

Games of the Week

No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 4 Alabama: This feels like a must-win situation for Oklahoma to keep its playoff hopes alive, and going on the road to face Alabama is not the kind of must-win situation anybody should be excited about. Even if you did go on the road to beat Tennessee the last time out. There was a lot of hype about John Mateer's transfer to Oklahoma in the offseason, and early in the year, he lived up to it. Then SEC play began, and, well, you don't hear much about John Mateer's Heisman chances anymore, do you?

If Oklahoma is to pull off the upset here, they'll need Mateer to be at his Mateer-est. He'll need to hit big throws and do the kind of scramble-y things that many QBs have done against Alabama in the past to pull off those upsets. However, I don't know that he can. My gut instinct here is that the Oklahoma offense will struggle to move the ball consistently and put points on the board unless Alabama makes mistakes.

That does not mean I expect Alabama to run away with this one, though. Quite the contrary. The Alabama offense is one-handed. The Tide can't run the ball at all and has been overly reliant on Ty Simpson and the passing attack to be successful on offense. The unit has been successful enough, as Alabama is 8-1 on the season. But have you noticed how the Tide offense has scored 30 points or more in only two of its six conference games? Both came at home against Tennessee and Vanderbilt, and Oklahoma's defense is a bit better than both. So it's hard for me to predict the Tide run away with this one, even if it is possible. All of which makes me think if Alabama wins by multiple scores, it's more likely to be a 24-10 result than a 34-23 kind of game. This matchup screams under to me. The Pick: Under 46.5 (-115) at Fanduel

No. 10 Texas at No. 5 Georgia: The Texas Longhorns have scored 79 points in their last two games, but I will not be counted among the group that believes this team has figured things out on offense. I think they just played Mississippi State and Vanderbilt, two defenses that have given up plenty of points lately. Auburn, one of the worst offenses in the country, put up 38 on Vandy last week.

Now, the sticking point here is that this Georgia defense isn't nearly as good as we're used to seeing. If you don't believe me, here's an incredible stat. In two games against Texas last season, the Georgia defense had 13 sacks and 25 tackles for loss. In nine games this season, the Georgia defense has 11 sacks and 35 tackles for loss. Yes, that's right, the Dawgs had more sacks against Texas last year than they have all of this season so far.

The problem for Texas is, matchup-wise, I don't think they'll give Georgia the same kind of problems we've seen Ole Miss and Tennessee give them. Those teams can stretch you vertically, while Texas hasn't shown much ability to do that. As for the Georgia offense, the Dawgs have been better than Texas, but they aren't explosive, and this Longhorns defense remains one of the best in the country. All of this makes me like the under, but what I love is the first-half under. Both of these teams are notoriously slow starters. We also have two coaching staffs that are excellent with halftime adjustments, so instead of sweating the whole 60, let's try to win this one in 30. The Pick: 1st Half Under 23.5 (-108) at Draftkings

Lock of the Week

Colorado State at New Mexico: One of the nice things about November college football is the ease of finding dead teams. There are plenty to be found. Colorado State is one of those dead teams. The Rams fired coach Jay Norvell following a 31-19 loss to Hawaii that dropped them to 2-5 on the season. Sometimes you will see this rally a team, whether it's because they loved or hated their coach. Then there are times when the team completely checks out. Colorado State seems to be in the latter group.

The Rams have lost their two games since, and were outscored by Wyoming and UNLV 70-10 in the process.

This is not a team harboring hopes of doing much the rest of the season. They look like they just want it to end. Meanwhile, New Mexico is coming off an impressive road win against UNLV and still has some control of its fate in the Mountain West should it win out. The Pick: New Mexico -14.5 (-108) at Draftkings

Rock Fight of the Week

North Carolina at Wake Forest: The North Carolina Tar Heels have turned a bit of a corner under Bill Belichick, and it's not hard to see the formula for their success. They're trying to win games with defense and by moving slower than molasses on offense. The only team moving at a slower pace offensively than the Tar Heels this season is Minnesota (more on the Gophers shortly), and Carolina has slowed things down even more in recent games.

Wake ranks 117th in my pace ratings itself, so the Demon Deacons are all too happy to oblige Carolina's pace with their own. However, early in the season, Wake was far more efficient on offense. It may have moved slowly, but it scored 2.06 points per possession in its first six games. In the last three, the Deacons' offense is scoring 0.71 points per possession. UNC is allowing only 0.97 points per possession on defense in its last three games. There's a reason this total is as low as it is, and my suspicion is it's not low enough. The Pick: Under 38.5 (-108) at Draftkings

Team Total of the Week

Minnesota at No. 8 Oregon (Friday): I mentioned the pace at which the Gophers offense has moved this year when discussing the Tar Heels. This is the slowest-moving team in the country, which doesn't come as much of a surprise if you've followed P.J. Fleck's squad over the years. Now this glacier has to fly across the country to face Oregon on a Friday night, and is facing an Oregon offense that could once again be without key players on offense in receiver Dakorien Moore, Gary Bryant Jr. and tight end Kenyon Sadiq. So we might see Oregon lean into its rushing attack the same way it did against Iowa last week.

That could slow the game down even further, but Oregon has also shown an ability to be explosive at home, so I don't want to mess with the Ducks' offense. Instead, I'll rely on the Ducks' defense (1st nationally in explosive play rate) to stymie a Minnesota offense that moves slowly and has been horrific on the road all year. The Gophers' offense has a success rate of only 33.9% on the road and is averaging an abysmal 0.61 points per possession in those games. The Pick: Minnesota TT Under 8.5 (-115) at Draftkings

Upset of the Week

Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern: Coastal is a team the market has been slow to adjust to lately. The Chanticleers got off to a 2-3 start to the season that had me wondering if coach Tim Beck might find himself on the unemployment line soon. They've won four straight since, including three straight games where they've scored at least 40 points. That has this team right back in the thick of the Sun Belt race, as they're a game behind James Madison in the standings, and will have a chance to play the Dukes for a division title in the final week of the season should they win this game.

So there's no questioning that Coastal will bring its A-game to Statesboro, and I think that A-game is enough to beat the Eagles. Southern is 3-1 at home this year, but the wins have come against Maine, Jacksonville State and Georgia State. They lost at home to Southern Miss, which is a Sun Belt team on a similar tier to Coastal. I think the wrong team is favored, and I'm happy to get the Chants at plus-money. The Pick: Coastal Carolina (+125) at Draftkings

Who will win and cover in each Week 12 college football game? Legendary Vegas expert Bruce Marshall is on a 29-17 roll on college football picks. Visit SportsLine now to see all his college football picks.