Mapping out 2025 SEC Championship Game scenarios: Paths for Alabama, Georgia, Texas A&M and more contenders

Heading into college football's final month of the regular season, the race to the SEC Championship Game has never been more exciting. With No. 3 Texas A&M and No. 4 Alabama out front, only one game separates six teams in the league standings, most of which play each other down the stretch with College Football Playoff implications.

If the SEC produces four teams in the 12-team playoff bracket, that would match the Big Ten's record number of entries last fall. That would equate to three of the playoff's seven at-large entries given to the SE≥C, leaving hopes of leagues outside of the Big Ten expecting multiple bids waning.

NO. 5 Georgia, No. 7 Ole Miss, No. 9 Vanderbilt and No. 20 Texas will have a say over the next few weeks leading up to rivalry weekend, which could decide the pair who fight for a conference title.

It should be noted that two-loss No. 14 Tennessee and No. 18 Oklahoma are still part of the Atlanta discussion, but substantial help is needed. Saturday's game at Neyland Stadium eliminates one of those teams from contention with a Sooners victory commencing a chain reaction-like sequence of results that need to happen for Oklahoma to play in the SEC title game. 

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Brad Crawford

In short, if Oklahoma and Texas A&M win out, the Sooners would need an LSU win over Alabama, a South Carolina upset of Ole Miss and Texas beating Georgia to finish in a four-way tie with Alabama, Georgia and Ole Miss. Then, by virtue of leading conference opponent win percentage (0.531) and a head-to-head win over Alabama by winning out, Oklahoma earns the tiebreaker.

The path is similar for Tennessee, with a few more things that need to happen for the Vols, which starts with winning out since they've suffered head to head losses to Alabama and Georgia -- two teams ahead of them in the current standings.

Here's a comprehensive look at each team's path to the 2025 SEC Championship Game  entering the final month of the regular season:

Texas A&M (8-0, 5-0)

Clearest path: Wins over Beau Pribula-less Missouri, South Carolina and Texas get the Aggies to Atlanta and likely a first-round bye in the playoff. Texas A&M's humming through nine weeks and is coming off its biggest SEC win in Baton Rouge after humiliating LSU. The Aggies' toughest conference win up to this point was a 16-10 victory against Auburn at home on Sept. 27.

Chaos scenario: Coming out of this week's open date, Texas A&M's trip to Missouri could get tricky if the Tigers are able to half Marcel Reed's progress in the Heisman picture and stun the Aggies. Keep an eye on the regular-season finale on Black Friday at Texas. That potentially sets up for a winner-take-all outcome like last season's tilt if the Longhorns beat Vanderbilt, Georgia and Arkansas over their next three games.

Tiebreaker talk: Texas A&M had the luxury this season of not having to play Alabama, Georgia or Ole Miss in conference play, but the likelihood is high one of those fellow elites will be awaiting the Aggies in December. None of the five SEC teams Texas A&M has beaten up to this point has a winning record in conference play this season.

Alabama (7-1, 5-0)

Clearest path: Win out against LSU, Oklahoma and Auburn. One of only two teams in the SEC with an unblemished league record up to this point, the Crimson Tide control their own destiny like the Aggies. Saturday's comeback win at South Carolina was pivotal coming off four consecutive league wins over ranked teams. Losing to the Gamecocks would've tossed a wrench into everything SEC title-related.

Chaos scenario: Surely, the Crimson Tide won't lose to LSU under an interim coach in two weeks, right? If it happens, that kicks into play various threats currently behind Alabama in the SEC standings, namely Vanderbilt, Tennessee and Georgia. The home bout with Oklahoma next month could be a top-15 showdown if the Sooners win in Knoxville this weekend.

Tiebreaker talk: Alabama's in great position to reach its end game of appearing in the SEC Championship Game for the first time under Kalen DeBoer. That three-point win at Georgia in September looms large at this point, along with those victories over Vanderbilt and Tennessee.

Georgia (6-1, 4-1)

Clearest path: The Bulldogs need help in their quest to win their second straight SEC crown under Kirby Smart. Control what you can control is a staple of this program during his tenure, and that'll be the message this weekend when Georgia entertains Florida at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville. The Bulldogs must win that game, then beat Mississippi State and Texas to stay alive.

Chaos scenario: With nationally ranked wins this season over Tennessee and Ole Miss, this team's resume speaks for itself. There's a couple paths for Georgia to Atlanta, but the most straightforward is winning out and Alabama losing two of its final three SEC games against LSU, Oklahoma and Auburn. 

Tiebreaker talk: If Georgia finishes in a tie for second place with Ole Miss, the Bulldogs will be playing during championship weekend ahead of final playoff selections since they beat the Rebels in Athens on Oct. 18. And if Texas A&M and Alabama each drop one of their final three games resulting in a four-way tie for first, Georgia's in based on conference opponent win percentage (0.484) and would have a rematch with the Crimson Tide.

Ole Miss (7-1, 4-1)

Clearest path: It's cut and dry for the Rebels. They need to handle South Carolina, Florida and Mississippi State, then hope Georgia and Alabama finish 6-2 in conference play. That would take one loss from the Bulldogs the rest of the way and two from the Crimson Tide.

Chaos scenario: Taking a league title appearance out of the equation for a second, Ole Miss is trying to avoid what happened last season at this junction -- a catastrophic November that takes one of the SEC's best teams outside of the playoff discussion. Of the current SEC teams slotted inside the top 10 ahead of next week's first selection committee rankings, Ole Miss has the easiest schedule remaining.

Tiebreaker talk: Like Texas A&M, Lane Kiffin and the Rebels have taken full advantage of a favorable SEC slate by league standards this season. Unfortunately, not playing Alabama or Texas A&M means Ole Miss needs one of those two to lose twice the rest of the way to play in Atlanta. The only tiebreaker Ole Miss holds over a possible threat, at this point, is Oklahoma.

Vanderbilt (7-1, 3-1)

Clearest path: Win out and hope for the best under various tiebreaker options? That's essentially where Clark Lea's team is right now since they don't own the head-to-head advantage with Alabama and have not played Texas A&M this season. The Commodores have to beat Texas this weekend, then run the table against Auburn, Kentucky and Tennessee to have a shot.

Chaos scenario: If Vanderbilt finishes in a four-team tie for first with Alabama, Texas A&M and Ole Miss all at 7-1 in league play, the Commodores would be making their first appearance in the SEC Championship Game by virtue of several conference opponent win percentage metrics. All that would take is the Aggies losing one of their final three SEC matchups to Missouri, South Carolina or Texas.

Tiebreaker talk: If Vanderbilt finishes in a tie for second with Ole Mis at 7-1 in conference play, the Commodores would earn the bid over the Rebels based on conference opponent win percentage (0.406). For that to happen, however, they need Alabama to lose twice next month.

Texas (6-2, 3-1)

Clearest path: Like Vanderbilt, the Longhorns do not control their own destiny in getting to the SEC Championship Game. However, winning out virtually guarantees a playoff appearance for the third straight season under Steve Sarkisian. Even beating Texas A&M in the finale doesn't put the Longhorns in Atlanta since they don't own the tiebreaker with Ole Miss, who would also finish 7-1 in conference play.

Chaos scenario: No team -- outside of Oklahoma and Tennessee -- needs more chaos to unfold next month than Texas if the Longhorns want to battle for a conference title. In the event of a three-way tie for first at the end of the season with Alabama and Ole Miss at 7-1 overall, Texas would get the No. 1 seed over both based on record vs. common conference opponents all played one time (Longhorns would've have beaten Georgia, who took out Ole Miss and has a win over Oklahoma, who would need to upset the Crimson Tide on Nov. 15. ... out of breath, yet?)

Tiebreaker talk: If Texas beats Vanderbilt and Georgia, and Texas A&M is upset before these two meet in Austin in late November, then the Longhorns would be playing for a berth in Atlanta. That would put Texas and Ole Miss in a two-way tie for second place behind Alabama, and the Longhorns get the nod since they would have a win over Georgia -- and the Rebels would not.