Predicting biggest overreactions for college football Week 9: Vanderbilt going to Atlanta, goodbye Brian Kelly

The 2025 college football season is past the halfway point, as we're hurtling towards the first College Football Playoff rankings release of the year. What a year it's been. 

The chaos and unpredictability rivals that of any season we've seen since the turn of the century. For instance, Indiana, Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt all landed inside the top 10 of the latest AP Top 25 poll. 

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BYU is creeping close at No. 11. No. 16 Virginia is within earshot of the playoff and No. 18 USF has a better strength of record than some legacy programs like Michigan, Notre Dame and Texas. 

So it felt appropriate to try and wrangle the unpredictable. Such a weird season, naturally, lends itself to overreactions. While we here at CBS Sports have been overreacting to each college football weekend for a while now. 

Let's try and manifest some into existence for a change ahead of the ninth week of the season. 

Vanderbilt is going to the SEC Championship Game 

Vanderbilt has never been to the SEC Championship Game. In fact, the Commodores have not made it to a conference title game, period, since 1923, a decade before they joined the newly formed Southeastern Conference. 

Vanderbilt will break that 100-year plus dry spell this season. The stars are aligning for the Commodores to make it to Atlanta. 

They've got a huge test Saturday against No. 15 Missouri, but they'll also have home-field advantage, where they have yet to lose this season. They do have to travel to Texas and Tennessee over the last month of the regular season,  but Vanderbilt should be able to outplay this year's rendition of the Longhorns and the Vols are fairly beatable. 

Clark Lea's squad is capable of taking care of business in both instances. 

The Commodores will also need some help. Though it's too early to get into the complex tiebreaker scenarios, it's safe to assume that Alabama, Georgia and Ole Miss would each need to lose at least one more time for Vanderbilt to feel good about its chances. Admittedly, that's a lot that needs to happen, but this feels like Vandy's year. 

Ty Simpson pulls ahead in Heisman Trophy race

Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson has already played well enough to earn his spot in the Heisman Trophy race. He's third in the SEC in completion percentage (70.2%), second in yards passing (1,931) and first in touchdowns passing (18). Saturday against South Carolina is where he pulls ahead as the runaway favorite for college football's top individual award. 

The Gamecocks have had their fair share of struggles this year, but it's not the defense's fault. South Carolina has allowed just one quarterback -- LSU's Garrett Nussmeier -- to surpass 250 yards passing in a game this season. Even then, Nussmeier threw two interceptions. 

Opponents are averaging just 186.1 yards through the air per game against South Carolina, and they have more interceptions as a team (eight) than touchdowns passing surrendered (seven). That's why a strong Simpson performance in a tough Williams-Brice Stadium will resonate. 

Simpson's already showed tremendous poise in road trips to Georgia and Missouri, where he produced a combined 476 yards and five touchdowns. He's also thrown one interception all year and has surpassed the 250-yard passing mark in three out of Alabama's last four SEC contests. 

This is Brian Kelly's last year 

Add another major opening to the growing list of FBS coaching vacancies. It certainly won't happen this weekend, nor will it happen at any point during the regular season, but this will be Brian Kelly's last year on the bayou. 

Maybe he doesn't get fired. LSU would have to pay a buyout north of $50 million to move on from him. The Tigers can cobble that money together, though, and other schools like Penn State haven't shied away from a massive monetary figure to make necessary change. 

And change, of some sort, will be necessary for LSU after it drops to 5-3 in a Week 9 loss to Texas A&M. With that, the Tigers' College Football Playoff hopes will officially be six feet under. 

That also means a fourth year of Brian Kelly with absolutely nothing to show for it. He's had a Heisman Trophy winner and a litany of NFL Draft picks -- this year's team is no exception -- and no team trophies added to the case. 

If LSU wants to stop spinning its wheels, moving on in some form or another is a necessity. 

We're in for another 'Black Sunday' 

Sundays have been a coach's worst nightmare this season. There's been a new Power Four opening almost every week since Sept. 14, and those firings tend to happen the day after college football Saturdays. 

We've come to dub the last Sunday of the regular season "Black Sunday," since that's when a majority of moves tend to happen. Now teams have decided to spread it out over the course of the year. This Sunday will be no exception. 

While Florida State and Wisconsin have reaffirmed their faith in their embattled coaches -- for now, at least -- other bosses like Michigan State's Jonathan Smith and Auburn's Hugh Freeze remain in hot water. 

They also both have to contend with crucial games this weekend. Michigan State plays rival No. 25 Michigan. Looking uncompetitive in that game may force Michigan State's hand. 

It should go without saying that a loss to an Arkansas team that already fired its coach should be the nail in the coffin of Freeze's tenure.