The Six Pack: Picks for Oregon vs. UCLA, Alabama vs. Georgia and Tom Fornelli's lock of Week 6

The parity in college football seems to exist in tiers.

A few weeks ago, in this column, I shared data showing that underdogs were winning games at a lower rate than at any time in recent history. That same separation exists between teams ranked in the AP Top 25 and those who aren't.

It's fun to call anyone who votes in the poll an idiot and tell them what they got wrong, but overall, they seem to know what they're talking about. Ranked teams are 85-6 against unranked teams so far this season. That .934 win percentage is easily the highest rate in the College Football Playoff Era. The next-highest was 0.852 in 2014.

And it extends further than straight-up winning. Ranked teams have gone 47-43-1 against the spread against unranked teams, too. That's a .522 win percentage, which may not seem very high, but it's the highest since the 2019 season, when they finished with a cover rate of .547.

Only three other seasons saw ranked teams finish over .500 ATS (2021, 2022, 2023), and none of those seasons was higher than .514.

Obviously, there's a lot of season left to go, and things could even out, but it is interesting that all five of the 12 seasons in which ranked teams finished (or are currently) above .500 ATS have come in the last seven seasons. We may be seeing more parity at the top of the sport among title contenders, but there's evidence that the gap between the elite and the next tier is widening.

Games of the Week

No. 21 UCLA at No. 13 Oregon

UCLA has been one of the bigger surprises to start the season. Many people pegged the Bruins as a potential sleeper before the year began due to Bob Chesney taking over the program and an infusion of talent and investment. Plus, the schedule wasn't overly taxing compared to what others in the Big Ten might face. So far, the Bruins have lived up to their potential.

They get their biggest test of the year this weekend, though. A road trip against Oregon -- even an Oregon that's been underperforming -- is never easy, and the Ducks pose a far bigger challenge than any of UCLA's first four opponents.

My concern for UCLA here is that, as successful as they've been, they're a bit one-dimensional on offense. Now, if you're going to be one-dimensional, be great at that dimension. UCLA has been so far. This is the best rushing attack in the country from a success-rate and EPA-rate perspective. It's also one of the most explosive rushing attacks going. The problem UCLA faces is that it hasn't found itself in a position where it has to drop back and pass, which is beneficial because its passing offense hasn't been nearly as sharp.

Oregon's defensive line is the best they've seen by far and could limit what the Bruins do on the ground, putting them in more adverse situations. At the same time, Oregon has questions of its own. Dante Moore is back at practice. We do not yet know his status for this game, as he recovers from a concussion sustained against USC. Signs point to a possible return, but Dylan Raiola was outstanding in relief.

We don't know which direction Dan Lanning will go, and those questions lead to some skepticism about what the Ducks' offense will look like. So when I add up questions about how effectively UCLA will run the ball against Oregon, with questions about who will be at QB for the Ducks, it leads me in one direction. The Pick: Under 58.5 (-114) at Fanduel

No. 2 Georgia at No. 6 Alabama

The biggest question about this game is the weather. As I write this, Tropical Storm Isaias is heading toward the Gulf Coast and is expected to intensify into a hurricane. The forecast calls for heavy rainfall and gusty winds in central Alabama from Friday into Saturday. That's why the total for this game has plummeted from an opening number of 56.5 to 52.5.

That's a lot, but it's not enough to scare me away from the pick.

I have questions about both teams. Alabama is certainly more tested than Georgia to this point, but it hasn't gone up against a front seven like Georgia's. Nor has Georgia faced many offenses that can test its defense, particularly an offense with a quarterback like Keelon Russell. Also, we saw Georgia's offense struggle against Oklahoma. They scored 41 points thanks to defensive scores and short fields created by turnovers, but on a per-play basis, it was Georgia's worst performance of the season by far. That's not unexpected against Oklahoma, but while this Alabama defense isn't to the level of the Sooners, it's proven to be pretty good.

So the unanswered questions for both offenses, combined with the weather that won't help either offense, make this one an easy call. Frankly, I won't be shocked if this number continues to plummet as we get closer to kick. The Pick: Under 52.5 (-110) at DraftKings

Lock of the Week

No. 10 LSU at Kentucky

This will surprise many of you, but contrary to popular belief, I don't like to be the "well, actually" guy. I want Kentucky fans to just be able to enjoy the fact that they've already secured two unexpected road wins this year and are 4-1 despite entering the season with a projected win total of 4.5. And they should be happy! Winning is fun, and it's even better when nobody expected it from you.

But I'm not buying in. Not completely. Kentucky may be better than expected, but Texas A&M and South Carolina are much worse than expected, too. Now the Wildcats are back at home to face an LSU team that's banged up but has a pretty clear talent advantage. The line has moved in Kentucky's favor this week, but it's reached a point where I see far too much value on the Tigers to pass it up. Perhaps Kentucky will prove me wrong yet again, or perhaps the market has overreacted a bit to their success and LSU injuries. I know which side I'm leaning toward. The Pick: LSU -8.5 (-112) at DraftKings

Red River Rock Fight of the Week

No. 1 Texas vs. Oklahoma

Here's a fun fact for you (unless you're an Oklahoma fan): Oklahoma has not scored a touchdown against Texas since both schools were still in the Big 12. That's right, the Longhorns have held the Sooners to three field goals each of the last two seasons in 34-3 and 23-6 victories. That's one of the reasons why we see a total this low.

It's wild to think about, considering the history between these two, and how many times this meeting has been a high-scoring shootout, but things have changed. Oklahoma's defense remains elite, but the offense is stuck deep in the mud. John Mateer has been bad and has not been helped by his offensive line. Oklahoma can't run the ball, can't pass the ball, and can't hold onto the ball, either. It's a poor recipe for success.

But it's not as if the Texas offense has been great itself. While they're better than Oklahoma's unit, the Longhorns' offense ranks outside the top 40 in points per drive, EPA per play, and success rate. Their explosive play rate of 10.8% ranks 104th nationally. Their saving grace has been improved play in the red zone, where their 4.74 points per trip ranks only 42nd nationally but is an improvement over recent seasons. Now, in Texas' defense, it's played a tough schedule so far this year. But while that's true, it's not like Oklahoma's defense presents an easier challenge than what the Longhorns have faced. The Pick: Under 39.5 (-110) at Fanduel

Another Under of the Week

San Diego State at Oregon State

Listen, I didn't come into the week saying "I can't wait to pick four unders and root against touchdowns all weekend," but it appears that's what I'll be doing. This pick is a little scary considering how good Oregon State's offense has been to start the season.

Seriously, if you aren't familiar with the 2026 Beavers, you should pay attention. They're a lot of fun. JaMarcus Sheppard has taken the program over, and the QB/WR combo of Braden Atkinson and Jesse LeGree has been lighting it up every week. But this week they're facing a San Diego State defense that's better than its numbers suggest. The Aztecs' offense is bad (which helps with our play) and has put it in pretty tough positions. Even so, the Aztecs have done a decent job of limiting explosive plays, and that should help them here. They've also been respectable in the red zone. In fact, both these defenses have. Oregon State is allowing 3.75 points per red zone possession (28th nationally), and San Diego State is at 3.86 (34th). I can see Oregon State having to settle for more field goal attempts than it has so far, which makes the spread far less desirable, but makes the under pretty intriguing. The Pick: Under 53.5 (-110) at Fanduel

Upset of the Week

Arizona at West Virginia

Arizona is off to a 4-1 start, but last week's 34-7 blowout win over Cincinnati came with a cost. The team's leading receiver, Tre Spivey, is out for the year with a broken foot. We also don't know the status of fellow receivers Gio Richardson and Chris Hunter, who have also been banged up. Losing Spivey is a big blow, and if either Richardson or Hunter is limited or a no-go, that's a problem for an offense heading on the road to face a West Virginia team capable of putting points on the board in a hurry.

If the Mountaineers can turn this game into a tennis match, it will play to their advantage. Arizona's defense has been pretty good on a down-to-down basis, ranking 10th nationally with a 66.7% success rate, but it's also been prone to allowing big plays. Plus, it hasn't exactly faced an offense as deadly as this West Virginia unit can be. So the health questions, defensive questions, and traveling across the country to play at 12 pm ET make West Virginia a very live dog in my estimation. The Pick: West Virginia (+140) at DraftKings