The Six Pack: Picks for Florida vs. Ole Miss, USC vs. Oregon and Tom Fornelli's lock of Week 4

Where are the upsets?

We're still early in the season, and there has been a surprising lack of upsets so far, and I don't just mean the big ones that nobody saw coming. I mean, in general.

On the season, underdogs are 25-132 in games between FBS opponents. That's a win percentage of only .159, which trails way behind recent seasons. As you can see in the table below, last year underdogs won at a .265 clip.

While that table only goes back to 2021, I have data dating back to the 2014 season, the beginning of the College Football Playoff era. From 2014 through 2025, underdogs had a win percentage of .261 overall. Only once did they finish any season with a win percentage worse than .249. It was the 2015 season when the dogs went 165-600 for a win percentage of .216.

And these results don't seem to be due to much larger spreads earlier in the season, given all the nonconference games. If we limit the data to games that featured a spread of 7.5 points or less, underdogs are 20-39 for a win percentage of .339. From 2014 to 2025, the win percentage in such games was .393. The only season that finished with a worse percentage was, you guessed it, the 2015 season at .327.

So what's going on? I wish I knew. It's possible that we're still early in the season, and the small sample size is skewing the results. Maybe we're due for a generational run of underdogs winning outright from here on out. Or maybe there's something to be said about the top of the sport pulling away from the bottom, even if things have flattened a bit at the top. Or maybe, like 2015, this will prove to be an outlier of a season.

I don't know, but considering I include an "Upset of the Week" pick in this column, and I'm coming off a 1-5 week, I'd really appreciate it if some of these underdogs would start pulling their weight and help me dig out of the hole I've dug myself.

Games of the Week

No. 4 Ole Miss at No. 21 Florida

Another week, another big game for Ole Miss, which has knocked off two ranked teams in Louisville and LSU already. Obviously, last week's win over LSU meant a bit more to the Rebels than a typical top-10 win, and that's what leads me to my biggest concern heading into another difficult game.

You know this team put a lot of time and energy -- both physical and emotional -- into the LSU game last week. How do they avoid a letdown? Because if you overlook this Florida team, you're going to find yourself 3-1 real quick. It's easily the biggest challenge of Pete Golding's career as a head coach so far, because I doubt it took much to get the team focused on LSU.

So that fear will likely lead plenty of you to lay the points with Florida, even if Jon Sumrall doesn't understand how his team is favored. I'm opting to avoid the spread, though. No, the one thing I find to be clear about this game is that it's likely to be high-scoring.

We've seen Ole Miss' defense allow 62 points in those wins against Louisville and LSU. Last week, the Auburn team that could barely muster 17 points against Baylor put up 39 on Florida, and if you look at Florida's overall defensive numbers, they aren't as impressive as they should be considering their competition. The Pick: Over 58.5 (-105) at DraftKings

No. 20 Oregon at No. 12 USC

Every offseason, there's talk that a Lincoln Riley team may have finally fixed its defense, but then the year begins, and it's pretty clear they haven't. You can point to USC having to fly across the country last week and the injury report all you want, but this team still allowed a Rutgers team that lost to UMass and Boston College to score 35 points and rush for 268 yards. There's no way to spin that positively.

Now, Oregon is coming to town, and it's not just a normal Oregon. It's a pissed-off Oregon. An Oregon that has heard nothing but how disappointing it's looked, and sees an opportunity to remind people of the team everyone thought it would be before the season began. The problem for Oregon is I'm still not convinced its defense is all that good, either. If Boise State and Oklahoma State can put up points against you, what might USC do?

Then there's the history between these two. They don't exactly play low-scoring rockfights. They've met 10 times since the 2009 season, and their average game has featured 74.6 points. None have finished with fewer than 54 points, and that was the case in the 2020 Pac-12 Championship Game. Yes, clock rules have changed and led to lower-scoring games, but last year's meeting still saw 69 points put on the board. The Pick: Over 61.5 (-115) at Fanduel

Lock of the Week

No. 17 Iowa at No. 18 Michigan

Iowa is off to a 3-0 start, but how trustworthy is it? The fact that Iowa State gave the Hawkeyes a much tougher fight than I expected tells me more about the Hawkeyes than it does the Cyclones, and it doesn't say much that's positive. At least not from an offensive perspective.

Iowa managed only 16 points in that win, and it had to fight like hell for all 16 of them. Now it's on the road for the first time this season, facing a Michigan defense that hasn't allowed more than 17 points all year. I could be wrong, but it's hard to imagine a world in which Iowa marches down the field for touchdowns in this game without some serious help from its defense and special teams, which, to be fair, is very possible! It's what Iowa does, but this program's recent history doesn't suggest it's overly likely.

Iowa has been the underdog in 10 conference road games against ranked opponents since the 2014 season. It's 1-9 in those games, but what's more important to our interests is that Iowa has averaged only 12.5 points in those 10 games. Their listed team total for this game is 16.5, and Iowa has only scored 17 or more three times in those 10 games. Even with their defense and special teams, they don't often clear this bar. The Pick: Iowa Team Total Under 16.5 (-106) at Fanduel

Principle Play of the Week

Nebraska at Michigan State

A lot of the picks I share in this column every week use numbers as their foundation, but sometimes you have to throw the numbers out the window. This is one of those times. Based purely on my own personal ratings, Nebraska being favored by 5.5 points in this spot is perfectly fine. I don't see an edge on either side based solely on looking at the data.

But I'm also a man of principle, and today I take a stand. You want me to bet on the Nebraska Cornhuskers as a road favorite in the year 2026? Matt Rhule has been at Nebraska since 2023, and he's 4-10 on the road with the Cornhuskers. Now, while he's 6-7-1 ATS in those 14 games, he's been the underdog in 10 of them. As a favorite, he's only 2-2 straight up and 1-3 ATS, with the lone cover coming in 2024 against a Purdue team that finished 1-11. Purdue went 0-9 in Big Ten play that season, and lost each game by an average of 29.2 points. Maybe 2026 Michigan State proves itself to be every bit as bad as that Purdue team was, but I doubt it. So, no, I'm sorry, I cannot in good conscience back Nebraska as a road favorite in this spot. If I'm wrong, at least I went down standing for something. The Pick: Michigan State +5.5 (-108) at DraftKings

Fade of the Week

Colorado at Baylor

Does Colorado strike you as a team that's in a good spot right now? After opening the season with a surprising 14-13 win, the Buffaloes made headlines for all the wrong reasons last week. The team was caught on video talking about the atmosphere at Northwestern's makeshift stadium, then had its doors blown off, losing 41-7. After the game, Deion Sanders said some players had been kicked off the team for detrimental conduct.

Now that the same Colorado team that looked lifeless and checked out last week is back on the road to face Baylor. The same Baylor that is likely to get QB DJ Lagway back from an ankle injury. Now, if we look at Colorado's two road games against P4 opponents this year, the Go-Go Offense hasn't done much going. It's averaged 0.95 points per possession with a success rate of 41.4%. The few times it's managed to reach the red zone, it's scored only 2.4 points per trip. These are all bad numbers. In other words, the Buffs haven't shown much reason to trust them on the road against another Power Four opponent this weekend. The Pick: Baylor -9.5 (-118) at Fanduel

Upset of the Week

UMass at Sacramento State

Listen, I've enjoyed the UMass story as much as anybody to this point. It's not often you see teams coming off a 0-12 season begin the year 3-0 with a win over a Big Ten team, even if that Big Ten team is Rutgers. But, you know what? That Big Ten team was Rutgers, and Rutgers hasn't won a game yet this season. And UMass' other two wins have come against Sacred Heart and Stonehill. I'm not trying to diminish anything UMass has done, but I can't help but wonder if they're being a little overvalued right now.

Sacramento State has had a rough introduction to FBS life. It's 1-3, but it's lost three games you'd expect it to lose. This is a spot where they're likely to be more competitive, and we shouldn't overlook the fact that UMass has to fly across the entire country to play this game. We've seen a lot of teams struggle with travel games like this the last few years. Hell, just ask USC about its trip to play the same Rutgers team UMass beat last week. The Pick: Sacramento State (+155)