Did Penn State jump the gun in firing James Franklin? Matt Rhule's extension further complicates coach search

Penn State cast the first major stone of the college football season when it fired James Franklin only six weeks into a highly anticipated campaign. The Nittany Lions decided that Franklin reached his ceiling with the program, and it was time to look for a new voice -- less than halfway through the season. 

After two other Big Ten coaches signed extensions to rebuff Penn State's interest, the emotional decision to fire midseason suddenly looks like a gaffe. 

Indiana coach Curt Cignetti, a Pennsylvania native, quickly signed a contract extension that will likely keep him in Bloomington for the rest of his career. On Thursday, projected top candidate Matt Rhule did the same at Nebraska, keeping him in Lincoln through 2032. 

And suddenly, for a program that hoped to impose its will on the coaching market, the top candidates are gone. There are potential options on the way up, but few that will move the needle nationally. In the shadow of LSU and Florida swinging for sitting Big Ten and SEC coaches, Penn State seems to have already -- and very publicly -- struck out. 

Granted, moving on from Franklin is a defensible decision on its own. He was in the midst of his 12th season, but holds a 2-21 record against AP top-six opponents, the second-worst mark in FBS history among coaches with at least 20 matchups. Penn State was tired of never breaking through, and it's worth seeing if someone else can turn the tide. 

And furthermore, the nearly $50 million buyout actually isn't as onerous as it sounds. The contract is believed to be subject to offset language, which means that Penn State could ultimately pay a much smaller amount if he takes another job. The finances could become negligible. 

But after getting publicly turned down by the two most obvious candidates on the board, the risk is greater than just replacing a coach. By making a change nearly three months before the coaching carousel got into motion, it opened the door for expectations to rise through the roof. 

Franklin was 104-45 at Penn State, including a 2016 Big Ten title. He won 34 games in his final three full seasons with two AP Top 10 finishes. There are few coaches on the market that are clearly positioned to replicate that. Frankly, Florida and LSU are finding themselves in somewhat of the same position, especially if Lane Kiffin decides to stay at Ole Miss. 

Letting Franklin finish out the season would have both stabilized the roster, and continued recruiting momentum. Since his firing, at least 10 Class of 2026 recruits have decommitted. There won't be a recruiting class to maintain when the next coach arrives. 

At the end of the year, Penn State could have still made a measured decision to fire Franklin. And furthermore, with the writing on the wall, the university could have encouraged Franklin to search for other opportunities. Virginia Tech, Arkansas and Florida would have happily engaged -- and still might. 

While the dynamics of college basketball are different, think back to the John Calipari situation at Kentucky. The program was frustrated with him, and both sides were ready to move on. Arkansas got to sell poaching one of the greatest coaches of the 21st Century. Kentucky got to move on, but went through a normal coaching cycle instead of a prolonged one. After striking out on their top choices, Mark Pope was a reasonable -- if not spectacular -- addition. In year one, he made the Sweet 16. Everyone won in a way that feels more complicated for Penn State now. 

There are still a few big names left on the board. Texas A&M coach Mike Elko has ties to the Northeast; he also probably has a better job right now, and certainly won't leave before the College Football Playoff. Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea is a rising star and Penn State would be a step up, but he's also coaching at his alma mater. Ditto for Louisville's Jeff Brohm. Missouri's Eli Drinkwitz has been a popular name across the coaching landscape, but he could easily decide to stay in the SEC, or at Mizzou. 

Will fans applaud taking Duke coach Manny Diaz? Ohio State offensive coordinator Brian Hartline? Dipping into the NFL for Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady, who has one total year of experience as an on-field FBS assistant coach? 

Or, will Penn State athletic director Pat Kraft tune out the noise and try to make an unorthodox hire? Could coordinators get into the mix, or rising non-power stars like James Madison's Bob Chesney? There are plenty of good coaches, but half the job is selling them to the community, and the donors. 

Penn State is one of the most unique jobs in the country. It was defined for nearly 50 years by Joe Paterno, one of the greatest coaches in history. After Bill O'Brien stabilized the program, Franklin lasted a dozen years. This job hasn't been on the market in normal circumstances since 1966 -- and even Paterno was an internal promotion. 

The program tried to send a message by firing Franklin midseason, setting the expectation that the next coach would expect to compete for championships. But after Rhule and Cignetti decided to stay put, that extra runway could prove a liability for a fanbase growing impatient for results.