Is Penn State in danger of missing a bowl game? Path to six wins murky after latest loss, Drew Allar injury

The last time Penn State missed a bowl game -- excluding the shortened COVID season and when the program was ineligible for the postseason due to sanctions -- you would have to go back to 2004. The Nittany Lions finished 4-7 and failed to reach the six-win mark for the second consecutive season under coach Joe Paterno.

After entering the 2025 season with lofty expectations of getting back to the College Football Playoff and being ranked No. 2 in the preseason AP Top 25 poll, Penn State is closer to missing a bowl game than getting back to that stage after suffering its third consecutive loss to Northwestern on Saturday. 

To make matters even worse, Penn State will be without quarterback Drew Allar for the remainder of the season after he suffered a season-ending injury in the fourth quarter against the Wildcats.

Penn State became the first FBS team in the last 30 years to lose consecutive games as an outright favorite of at least 20 points. The disaster started with a loss to UCLA on the road as a 24.5-point favorite. The 42-37 loss to (at the time) a winless UCLA squad was the signal of the beginning of the end of the program's hopes of reaching the CFP. 

The Nittany Lions are also the fifth team since 1950 to start the season 3-3 after being ranked in the top two of the preseason poll. The last team to start 3-3 after being ranked in the top two of the preseason poll was Oklahoma in 1964.

Drew Allar injury update: Penn State QB suffers season-ending injury in loss to Northwestern

Austin Nivison

The path to six-wins looks bleak

Sitting at 3-3 with six games remaining, Penn State will have to find three wins the rest of the way to avoid missing out on a bowl game. Penn State has two games against ranked opponents (Ohio State and Indiana) and road games against Michigan State and Rutgers. 

Here is Penn State's full remaining schedule.

The next three games, in particular for Penn State, should be challenging. Iowa is coming off a 37-0 statement win over Wisconsin, while Ohio State has played like a team that ran the table in last year's CFP to capture a national title. On top of that, Indiana owns marquee wins over Oregon and Illinois heading into the second half of the season.

There is still a path to six wins and a berth in a bowl game for Penn State, but imagine reading that sentence less than two months ago. The best chance for Franklin and Penn State to become bowl eligible will be picking up wins over Michigan State, Nebraska and Rutgers.

Penn State turning to backup QB after Allar's injury

Speaking of Allar's injury, Penn State will have to turn to a backup quarterback for the second half of the season. Ethan Grunkemeyer, a former four-star prospect in the 2024 recruiting class, will be forced into action to salvage the season.

Grunkemeyer had appeared in two games before being inserted late against Northwestern and finished 8 of 11 for 105 yards and a touchdown. He played in one game last season -- Penn State's win over SMU in the first round of the CFP -- and completed one pass for 9 yards and also threw an interception.

This season appears to be a lost cause for Franklin and company, but playing Grunkemeyer could prove valuable to see what Penn State has at the position for this season and beyond. Penn State had a capable backup quarterback last season in Beau Pribula, who ended up transferring to Missouri before Penn State played in the CFP.

With Allar's college career over, Penn State's program now has more questions than answers for the rest of this season and beyond. The Nittany Lions have already failed to deliver on preseason national championship-or-bust expectations and find themselves in a tough position down the stretch to become bowl eligible.