Oregon survives Iowa: Late FG lifts No. 9 Ducks to key victory in Big Ten, College Football Playoff races

For Iowa, Saturday's loss to Oregon was another gut-wrenching chapter in a running struggle against ranked opponents. The Hawkeyes have now dropped 12 straight games to top 25 teams, including four consecutive losses at Kinnick Stadium. Coming into the game, this matchup presented a prime opportunity for Iowa to solidify its own College Football Playoff aspirations, but they came up just short despite a strong defensive effort through much of the contest.

Iowa's pass defense disrupted Oregon's passing attack for long stretches, keeping the Ducks largely in check through the air. But, despite holding the Ducks to 3-for-10 on third downs, the Hawkeyes couldn't find a stop when it mattered most, particularly against Oregon's ground game. Iowa, which had allowed just 83.8 rushing yards per game entering Week 11, gave up 261 yards on the ground to a top-10 rushing offense, including seven runs of at least 10 yards.

That inability to slow the run in critical moments and keep Dante Moore contained on the final drive ultimately left Iowa unable to protect its late lead.

Dante Moore once again proved he can deliver in the biggest moments for Oregon, even with his top pass catchers sidelined. Early in the game, Gary Bryant Jr. exited after a 22-yard reception, leaving Moore to adjust with a depleted receiving corps that was already without Dakorien Moore and Kenyon Sadiq to start the game. Despite the challenges, Moore finished 13 of 21 for 112 yards and an interception, but he was almost flawless when it mattered most, going 5 of 7 for 47 yards on the final drive to put Oregon in position for the game-winning field goal.

This marked the second time this season Moore has come up clutch in a tight road game. Earlier, he spearheaded Oregon's overtime win at No. 3 Penn State, demonstrating an ability to thrive under pressure -- even as a sophomore in his first year as a full-time starter -- and lead the Ducks in high-stakes situations.

Oregon's road win at Iowa provides a much-needed lift for the Ducks as they begin the November stretch. Up to this point, Oregon's only real test came in a home loss to Indiana, leaving questions about their ability to beat top-tier opponents. Saturday's victory not only gives the Ducks a marquee résumé win against a ranked team but also extends their nation-leading 11-game road win streak.

With three critical November games ahead -- Minnesota, No. 19 USC at home, and a season-ending trip to No. 23 Washington -- Oregon now has momentum and a signature win to lean on. While the offense ground out yards in the run game and executed in clutch moments through the air, the defense made timely stops that still gave Oregon a chance late, setting the stage for a pivotal month that will define the Ducks' College Football Playoff hopes.

End 4Q: Oregon 18, Iowa 16

Dante Moore hadn't completed a pass in the second half until connecting on five straight during the final drive, including an absolute money throw to Malik Benson for a 24-yard gain to get Oregon into field goal range with 23 seconds remaining. Atticus Sappington hit the 39-yarder to put the Ducks up with just three seconds remaining.

Late 4Q: Iowa 16, Oregon 15

Iowa put together a gutsy, game-changing touchdown drive. Facing third-and-5 early, Mark Gronowski stood tall in the pocket against a five-man rush and found DJ Vonnahme for a 40-yard strike that put the Hawkeyes into Oregon territory -- the biggest play of the game for Iowa.

Later in the drive, Iowa went for it on fourth-and-3, with Gronowski connecting downfield to Reece Vander Zee, followed by a 16-yard run from Kamari Moulton to keep the march alive. On third-and-goal, Gronowski's jump pass fell incomplete, but on fourth down, he took the ball himself, rushing it in on a shotgun snap to give Iowa its first lead of the game with 1:51 remaining. The two-point try was not successful.

Mid 4Q: Oregon 15, Iowa 10

Oregon marched into Iowa territory with four consecutive runs, gaining 40 yards, but a holding penalty pushed the Ducks back to third-and-12. That forced Dante Moore to attempt just his second pass of the half, both falling incomplete. The penalty took Oregon out of field goal range and led to a punt, giving Iowa the ball back midway through the fourth quarter with a chance to take the lead.

Noah Whittington leads the Ducks on the ground with 111 rushing yards, while Jordon Davison has added 52. Dierre Hill Jr. and Moore have contributed more than 40 yards each, giving Oregon a balanced rushing attack.

Early 4Q: Oregon 15, Iowa 10

Iowa opened the fourth quarter with a 7-yard gain from Mark Gronowski for a first down, but two strong stops by Oregon's front and an incompletion forced the Hawkeyes to settle for a 58-yard field goal. Drew Stevens drilled it through the uprights, cutting the deficit, but Iowa still needs a touchdown to take the lead.

End 3Q: Oregon 15, Iowa 7

Iowa needs to string together a sustained drive to start the final quarter if it hopes to get back into this game. The Hawkeyes are near midfield after a pass interference penalty on Oregon. Iowa has shown it can move the ball against the Ducks' defense at times, but the red-zone fumble earlier has left them playing catch-up.

Late 3Q: Oregon 15, Iowa 7

Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein dialed up the perfectly designed keeper for Dante Moore, who went 49 yards before easing out of bounds. There were certainly more yards for Moore to gain but seemed a bit hobbled while avoiding a hit. Iowa was able to hold the Ducks to another field goal when Moore got tripped up by his own offensive lineman on third down. Oregon is up to 206 yards rushing on 28 carries and has completed just eight passes for 65 yards -- fewer than Mark Gronowski has for the Hawkeyes.

Mid 3Q: Oregon 12, Iowa 7

Oregon's defense forced a huge takeaway, stripping the ball from Kaden Wetjen. Iowa had been threatening to take the lead with a ground-and-pound attack, featuring a heavy dose of Kamari Moulton and Mark Gronowski on a keeper. A 12-yard completion to Sam Phillips along the sideline -- followed by an illegal hands-to-the-face penalty on Oregon -- had the Hawkeyes moving deep into Duck territory. Two plays later, Wetjen lost control of the ball, and Oregon's Bear Alexander recovered.

Half: Oregon 12, Iowa 7

Iowa had a chance to take the lead before halftime but saw its drive stall when Oregon dialed up the perfect third-down blitz, resulting in a sack and a punt with 1:43 left. The Ducks capitalized quickly, flipping the field with 38 yards on back-to-back Noah Whittington runs. Oregon methodically moved into field goal range, where Atticus Sappington drilled a 46-yarder into the wind and through the rain.

Outside of the bad punt snap that led to a safety, Iowa has to feel good about how the first half unfolded. But Oregon is dominating on the ground with 137 yards on 18 carries, averaging 7.6 per attempt. The Ducks are winning in the trenches -- notching three tackles for loss and two sacks on defense while allowing zero negative plays offensively.

Early 2Q: Oregon 9, Iowa 7

What a response from Iowa. Mark Gronowski capped a 10-play, 75-yard drive with a 3-yard touchdown pass to DJ Vonnahme to put the Hawkeyes on the board. The power run game had been Iowa's only consistent weapon before Gronowski connected deep with Jacob Gill for a 38-yard gain to spark the drive. Iowa chewed up more than six minutes on the march and has already run the ball 20 times for 71 yards, averaging 3.6 per carry.

Early 2Q: Oregon 9, Iowa 0

Oregon finally found its rhythm, rattling off three straight explosive plays on an 82-yard drive capped by a 19-yard touchdown run from Dierre Hill Jr., who broke multiple tackles on his way to the end zone. The spark came when Dante Moore hit Jamari Johnson on a sail route, followed by Jordon Davison breaking loose for a 19-yard gain.

End 1Q: No. 9 Oregon 2, Iowa 0

Iowa had a promising drive going before Mark Gronowski called for the snap too early, leading to a broken play and an 8-yard sack. His third-down pass fell incomplete, forcing the Hawkeyes to punt. At the end of the first quarter, both quarterbacks are 1-of-5 passing, and the offenses have combined for just seven first downs.

Late 1Q: Oregon 2, Iowa 0

Oregon's offense looks disjointed early, missing several key receivers. Gary Bryant Jr. exited after a 22-yard grab, and three plays later Dante Moore forced a throw into the end zone that Deshaun Lee intercepted. So far, Moore's lone completion is the one that sent Bryant to the sideline.

Early 1Q: Oregon 2, Iowa 0

A rare special teams mistake by Iowa leads to the first points of the game and a safety for Oregon. A bad snap on a punt sent the ball flying back to Iowa's end zone where punter Rhys Dakin kicked it out of the back of the end zone, resulting in an illegal touch penalty and points on the board for the Ducks.

Early 1Q: Oregon 0, Iowa 0

The rain is coming down in Iowa City. It's cold. It's wet. But nothing either side can't handle. Both offenses go three-and-out on their first possessions with Oregon unable to take advantage of great field position following a partially blocked punt. 

Kinnick Stadium has been somewhat of a nightmare for top 10 teams, a place where rankings often melt under the roar of the crowd. This Saturday, No. 9 Oregon faces a dangerous No. 20 Iowa in a matchup with College Football Playoff implications. But the Ducks don't necessarily fit the mold of previous top 10 teams that have stumbled in Iowa City, and they appear ready to turn one of college football's toughest environments into just another venue.

Built for Kinnick: How Oregon's road dominance under Dan Lanning could silence Iowa's hostile environment

Cody Nagel

Oregon star wide receiver Dakorien Moore will not play against Iowa after suffering an injury during practice this week. The Ducks' top receiver leads the team in receptions (28) and yards receiving (443) with three touchdown catches this season. 

In addition to Moore being inactive, Oregon tight end Kenyon Sadiq is listed as questionable on the availability report and was not going through initial warmups, according to Erik Skopil. Sadiq leads the Oregon offense with five touchdown receptions.

Oregon WRs Dakorien Moore, Gary Bryant Jr. expected to miss Friday night matchup vs. Minnesota due to injury

Will Backus

There are similarities between these two defenses, but the offenses couldn't be more different. Iowa remains a run-heavy operation with few explosive plays (9.9%, eighth-worst among Power Four teams), while Oregon features one of the nation's top young quarterbacks in sophomore Dante Moore and produces a far higher big-play rate (16.9%, fourth-best in the FBS). The Ducks have also proven they can handle hostile road environments, including an overtime win at Penn State before the Nittany Lions' late-season collapse. What might appear on paper to be a difficult matchup for Oregon isn't really that at all -- Iowa's conservative approach actually plays into the Ducks' strengths. Pick: Oregon -6.5

If common opponents offer any insight, Oregon holds a narrow edge. The Ducks are plus-56 combined against Rutgers, Indiana, Wisconsin and Penn State, compared to Iowa's plus-43. Both teams lost at home to Indiana but handled the other three.

Iowa and Oregon have a combined seven non-offensive touchdowns this season. The Hawkeyes have produced three special teams scores and a pick-six, while the Ducks have returned three of their nine interceptions for touchdowns, showcasing two of the nation's most opportunistic units.

No defenses in the Power Four are better at keeping everything in front of them than Iowa and Oregon. The Ducks own an FBS-best 5.92% defensive explosive play rate and the Hawkeyes close behind at third nationally (6.61%) -- a fitting strength for two teams built on defense-first principles.

No. 20 Iowa (6-2) has a chance to strengthen its College Football Playoff case Saturday when it hosts No. 9 Oregon (7-1) in a matchup that could define the Hawkeyes' season. Kinnick Stadium has been a proving ground for upsets over the past decade, with Iowa notching four home wins over AP top-10 opponents since 2016 -- tied for ninth-most in the FBS. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.

It's a potential résumé-builder for Dan Lanning and the Ducks, who don't have a win over an FBS opponent currently above .500 this season. Their playoff profile needs substance, and this is the first of four chances in November to add it.

Oregon vs. Iowa prediction, pick, spread: Ducks visit hostile Kinnick Stadium in pivotal Big Ten clash

Cody Nagel