Ohio State knew its margin for error would be thin this season against one of the nation's most treacherous schedules. That comes with the territory for a program armed with an elite roster, endless resources and College Football Playoff expectations.

Now, the No. 1-but-not-for-long Buckeyes must prove they can absorb an early punch and get back in the ring stronger than ever.

Ryan Day's squad let Texas hang around in the second half before Arch Manning and the Longhorns hit the afterburners with 21 fourth-quarter points to stun Ohio State. The early-season loss is narrative-setting for the Buckeyes, who approach Big Ten play later this month in need of style points -- and a bunch of remaining wins -- to guarantee a return trip to the 12-team bracket.

The trickiest remaining games are:

There is enough on the table to potentially even absorb a three-loss season (though I see that as unlikely unless one of those losses occurs in the Big Ten Championship Game) and there are enough wins to bolster the Buckeyes' credentials. Paths to the CFP vary for a team that is capable from winning out from here, but the likelihood that happens with several more marquee matchups on the docket is daunting.

The Buckeyes remain firmly in the national title conversation, but the problem is what comes next. 

Clear playoff path: 11-1

Tighten the screws, run the table and win the Big Ten

There's no need to panic, Buckeyes fans. Ohio State knows exactly what it needs to do to get back to the CFP this season. However, with four games left against nationally-ranked competition — likely five if Michigan jumps back in this week — it's not getting any easier from here. Ohio State has battled through the conference slate unbeaten previously under Day, but there's more pressure this time around.

Likeliest path: 10-2

Take one more loss, play for a Big Ten title 

Day can authentically sell his team on one truth following the road loss to Texas: they're still in this, but need to ensure their best is brought every game the rest of the way. There's still margin for error, but it diminishes quickly with each loss in the Big Ten. And don't sweat getting there with multiple losses to unranked competition, a harsh reality Ohio State shouldn't have to worry about given the talent discrepancy against most in the conference.

This is my most likely scenario, which puts them at around the 8-seed range. Ohio State is still -145 to make the CFP, sixth-best among all college football teams. 

Danger scenario: 9-3

No 3-loss team has made the CFP without appearing in a conference championship game

The schedule is certainly beefy enough to have an argument, but the Buckeyes need Texas to stay elite and compete near the top of the SEC for its quality loss to stay put. A 7-2 finish in the Big Ten means nine wins overall, but with Oregon faltering in Week 2, perhaps an expected win over the Ducks may not hold as much water as it did, say, a month ago (the good news, ironically, is that Michigan could be a marquee win). The offseason conversation has been greased for a 9-3 team to make the CFP, but most prognosticators think that candidate would need to come from the SEC, where more ranked foes 

Day does not want to be in a situation that he's unfamiliar with unlike other elite coaches. He's never had to politick for a spot in the playoff at Ohio State, but if the Buckeyes finish 9-3 without a bid in the Big Ten Championship Game, he's going to be in a logjam of good teams vying for those final slots in the bracket. It may come down to Ohio State's collection of wins and losses, which is where a difficult schedule is a double-edged sword. 

Biggest game remaining: at Iowa

Ohio State has a bye this upcoming weekend, then games against Kent State and Illinois. The Buckyes should be 3-1 headed into Kinnick Stadium with their season on the line, really: if the Buckeyes fail to beat Iowa on the road on Oct. 3, chances are low that Ohio State beats Indiana, USC and Oregon down the stretch heading into the regular-season finale against Michigan.

We don't see a scenario in which Ohio State loses to Iowa and still gets to the CFP this season. The Buckeyes still control their postseason path, but the cushion is deteriorating and conference play hasn't started yet.

A win over Iowa, though, is a ranked win in Ohio State's pocket and some needed confidence before a daunting stretch gets going mid-October. 

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