If you think the AP Top 25 had a rough week, the top four teams and five of the top seven teams in my power ratings lost last week. Overall, seven of the 12 teams I featured last week lost.
Ironically, one of the few teams to win may have taken the biggest loss of them all.
Yes, Ohio State beat Indiana, but it came with a cost. Quarterback Julian Sayin will be out "several weeks," according to Ryan Day, and that's the kind of development that impacts Ohio State's season, and it certainly impacts them in my power ratings.
There is no position on the field more important than QB, and we don't know anything about Sayin's backups to this point. Luke Fahey filled in after the injury and struggled. The good news is the Buckeyes have a bye before returning to action, so Fahey will have plenty of time to prepare for his new role. He will also have Jeremiah Smith at his disposal, which is a plus for any QB.
But how big of a drop-off is it for Ohio State as a whole? That I cannot be sure about, but it's enough of a drop-off that the Buckeyes fall out of the No. 1 spot in my ratings for the first time this season, even though they were one of only two teams in my top five that won last week.
Title odds via DraftKings.
Fornelli Power Ratings
| 1 |  |
| As we've gone over here before with prior results, the scoreboard is what matters when determining who won a game. It's not nearly as important when determining who is more likely to continue winning games, and while Auburn deserves plenty of credit for finally beating the Dawgs in Athens, Georgia outplayed the Tigers in most facets of the game. The problem was they also ran into the back of their center and dropped the football too! Can't be doing that if you want to win games! But while the loss stung, my overall opinion of this Georgia team didn't change much. Last Week: 2 | Title Odds: +500 | |
| 2 |  |
| It's wild that Miami needed double overtime to beat Florida State and that it climbed three spots in the power ratings, but this ascension has more to do with the teams ahead of them being downgraded than it does anything the Canes did. Plus, rivalry games are rivalry games. Weird things happen, so I'm not going to overreact to Miami finding itself in a dogfight for the first time all year. Last Week: 5 | Title Odds: +600 | |
| 3 |  |
| If Luke Fahey comes out against USC and balls out, then the Buckeyes will be right back to the top of the list. For right now, the downgrade at QB was enough to drop the Buckeyes two spots. Last Week: 1 | Title Odds: +470 | |
| 4 |  |
| I had to downgrade Notre Dame's offense a bit after the performance against BYU. It was a very difficult environment, but I do now wonder if the lack of a big-body threat in the passing game limits the overall ceiling of what the offense could be. CJ Carr has to be perfect with his throws in tight areas against good defenses, and it showed up against the Cougars. Meanwhile, Julian Sayin threw a touchdown on Saturday just by chucking the ball to an area and hoping Jeremiah Smith would be too big and strong for anybody to do a damn thing about it. And that's what happened. Man, why doesn't every team get a Jeremiah Smith? Last Week: 3 | Title Odds: +460 | |
| 5 |  |
| This is one of those odd instances where Indiana loses the game, but you feel better about their long-term prospects right now than that of the team that beat them. Sure, the Hoosiers lost, but at least they left the game reasonably healthy, and while Josh Hoover got banged up, he was healthy enough to throw what should've been the game-winning touchdown. Plus, Indiana's finish to the regular season is a bit friendlier than Ohio State's. The Buckeyes are currently favored to win the Big Ten, but I'd argue Indiana's the far better value play at the moment. Last Week: 6 | Title Odds: +750 | |
| 6 |  |
| Alabama became the latest team to head into Knoxville and find itself locked up by the Tennessee defense. As great as Keelon Russell has been for the Tide, Saturday was a reminder of what can happen when you have an inexperienced QB on the road in a difficult environment against a great defense. It was Alabama's worst performance of the year, but after playing Georgia and Tennessee in consecutive weeks, the rest of the schedule should feel less intimidating. Nothing I saw here led me to significantly downgrade the Tide. I genuinely feel it was more about the Vols than the Tide. Last Week: 4 | Title Odds: +1350 | |
| 7 |  |
| OK, so here's the thing about Oregon. The QB situation is a mess. Dylan Raiola led a game-winning drive, but if you stayed up late enough to watch it, you know that it wasn't exactly an Academy Award-winning performance. It was mostly dinking and dunking down the field against a worn-out Nebraska defense. The bigger development here is that Oregon's defense suddenly looks like the unit we expected to start the season, and given the questions every team in the country has right now, having what appears to be a genuinely elite-caliber unit goes a long way. Last Week: 9 | Title Odds: +5200 | |
| 8 |  |
| There is an argument to be made that, outside of the Florida game, which came a week after a very emotional win over LSU, Ole Miss has been the second-best team in the SEC. The wins over Louisville and LSU were impressive, and they blew out Vanderbilt before turning around and absolutely shutting down Missouri this weekend. Seriously, a Mizzou team that was running wild on everybody suddenly couldn't run anywhere. I have real questions about this defense on the back end, but if they can stop the run like they did the last couple of games, they will be extremely difficult to beat. And, remember, they've still got to play Georgia, but Georgia has to come to Oxford. There's a reason this team suddenly has the second-best odds to win the SEC. Last Week: 11 | Title Odds: +1500 | |
| 9 |  |
| I mentioned the value of an elite defense in a season where nobody appears great, and folks, it's time to recognize the possibility that this Tennessee defense is elite. Seriously, who has performed well against it? They allowed only 20 points in their loss to Texas and haven't allowed 20 points in a game since. They did a better job of stopping Keelon Russell than anybody has, even Georgia. The offense is an entirely different story, and one I'm not sure they can solve, but if the defense plays like this every week, the playoff is on the menu. The two toughest games remaining on the schedule (Kentucky and LSU) are in Knoxville. Last Week: NR | Title Odds: +5500 | |
| 10 |  |
| I went into the weekend thinking Arizona State could present problems for Texas Tech and, LOL, nope! It was 21-0 Tech before you could blink, and it didn't stop there. From start to finish, it was the best performance we've seen from the Red Raiders this year and the most they've looked like last season's team. It wasn't the biggest win in the Big 12 on Saturday, but it was certainly a statement. Last Week: NR | Title Odds: +4800 | |
| 11 |  |
| Full disclosure, I was hoping Texas would fall out of the top 12 this week. By every available metric I use to assign these ratings, they belong here, but it definitely doesn't feel like they do. I considered a one-time executive decision to dock the Longhorns three points from their rating "just because," but decided against it. I do think I'll keep that option in my back pocket going forward, though. Last Week: 7 | Title Odds: +2200 | |
| 12 |  |
| No team received a bigger upgrade to their rating this week. While there's some controversy about the end of the game, there's no controversy about which team looked like the better football team in Provo on Saturday night. The defense was terrific, but the biggest surprise to me was the offense. Yes, the Cougars had to use some tricks and misdirection to move the ball, but there's nothing wrong with doing what you need to do. While I still wonder what things will look like if BYU is trailing and Bear Bachmeier has to become a dropback passer, this offense went up against a great defense and did enough to win. And, while I don't normally do this, just as a little reward for BYU fans after a big win, I want you to know that the team you passed to get into the top 12 was Utah. Last Week: NR | Title Odds: +4400 | |
Dropped Out: Utah, Missouri, Nebraska
