Navy vs. Memphis prediction, odds: 2025 Thanksgiving college football picks by proven model

The Navy Midshipmen look to keep their AAC titles hopes alive when they battle the Memphis Tigers in the only FBS game on the college football Thanksgiving schedule. Navy is coming off a 41-38 win over South Florida in Week 13, while Memphis dropped a 31-27 decision to East Carolina. The Midshipmen (8-2, 6-1 AAC), who are tied for first in the league, are 2-2 on the road this season. The Tigers (8-3, 4-3 AAC), who are tied for sixth in the conference, are 4-1 on their home field.

Kickoff from Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis, is at 7:30 p.m. ET. Memphis leads the all-time series 6-4. The Tigers are 4.5-point favorites in the latest Navy vs. Memphis odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 57.5. Before making any Navy vs. Memphis picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

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The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, and it is profitable on its top-rated money-line and over/under picks since the beginning of the 2024 season. Anybody following those college football betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Navy vs. Memphis. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and trends for Navy vs. Memphis:

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How to make Navy vs. Memphis picks

SportsLine's model is going Over on the total (57.5). The Midshipmen have gone over the total in eight of their past 10 games, including two in a row. The Tigers, meanwhile, have gone over the total in each of their last four, and six of the past 10. The teams have also combined to go over the total in each of their last two meetings.  

The model has Navy quarterback Blake Horvath passing for two touchdowns and rushing for another, while Memphis quarterback Brandon Lewis throws for more than 240 yards and two scores. The teams combine for 61 points as the Over clears in more than 50% of simulations. 

The model also says one side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time. You can only get that pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Navy vs. Memphis, and which side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Navy vs. Memphis spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that finished up over $2,000 on its FBS college football picks since its inception, and find out.