Missouri vs. Vanderbilt prediction, pick, odds, spread: Tigers meet Diego Pavia, Commodores in key SEC battle
Expert picks, prediction and preview as No. 15 Missouri and No. 10 Vanderbilt meet in SEC showdown
By
Will Backus
•
3 min read
No. 10 Vanderbilt hosts No. 15 Missouri Saturday afternoon in a game with major implications for both the SEC and the College Football Playoff races. This will be the 17th meeting all-time between the two former SEC East foes and the last between the two until 2027 when the SEC expands to nine conference games.
Missouri holds a 12-4-1 all-time record against Vanderbilt. The Tigers have not lost to the Commodores since 2019 and have won three of the last five matchups by at least two possessions. But this is a different Vanderbilt team.
The Commodores took Missouri to two overtimes last season and they're favored as they return home to Nashville. They're coming off of a 31-24 win against LSU, which was their second triumph against a top-15 team -- LSU ranked 10th entering the Week 8 slate -- this season. Vanderbilt is also undefeated at home.
Missouri, meanwhile, faced one of its biggest tests of the season in Week 8. The Tigers triumphed in overtime at Auburn, avoiding a disastrous loss to an unranked opponent and keeping both their SEC and playoff hopes alive in the process. Saturday marks just the second away game Missouri has played all season, as the Tigers went 5-1 in a six-game homestand to open the year.
Missouri vs. Vanderbilt: Need to know
Vanderbilt continues making history: There are no doubts about it -- this Vanderbilt team is legit. Not only are the Commodores good, but they continue setting new bars of historical success under coach Clark Lea. Vanderbilt is seeking its third win against an AP top-15 opponent this season. This is already the first time that the Commodores have defeated multiple top-15 foes in the same year. Their own No. 10 ranking is the highest they've ascended in the AP poll since Week 2 of the 1947 season. Not to be outdone, Vanderbilt's 6-1 record is its best seven-game start since 1950.
Missouri finding success on both sides of the ball: Missouri is a complete football team. The Tigers are one of just three FBS programs to rank top-10 nationally in both total offense (486.6 yards per game) and total defense (243 ypg). The others? No. 2 Indiana and No. 6 Oregon. Missouri is also allowing just 16.7 points per game while scoring 39 on average. The Tigers have an elite rushing attack to thank for most of their offensive success. Star running back Ahmad Hardy is leading the way in a ground game that's tallied 840 yards rushing this season, which is third-most in the FBS.
Third downs will be crucial: Third downs are always important, but Saturday's clash pits two of the best third-down teams against one another. Vanderbilt ranks second in the FBS with a 55.7% conversion rate on third downs. Commodores quarterback Diego Pavia is particularly excellent in crucial situations with his ability to improvise. He'll have his hands full against a Missouri defense that allows other teams to convert on just 27.5% of first downs, which is seventh in the FBS.
Where to watch Missouri vs. Vanderbilt live
Date: Saturday, Oct. 25 | Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: FirstBank Stadium -- Nashville, Tennessee
TV: ESPN | Live stream: Fubo (Try for free)
Missouri vs. Vanderbilt prediction, picks
This will be a very tightly contested game. Missouri and Vanderbilt are fairly even in most metrics. Both have play-making quarterbacks that can cause nightmares for a defense. Both have defenses that rank in the upper half of a tough SEC. That's especially impressive for a Vanderbilt team that has played three top-15 teams thus far. The Commodores get homefield advantage in an improved FirstBank Stadium and they'll pull out a thrilling win to continue on their march toward the College Football Playoff. Pick: Vanderbilt -2.5 (-118)
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