Miami vs. Louisville prediction, pick, odds, spread: No. 2 Hurricanes meet Louisville in Friday ACC action

No. 2 Miami returns to action out of an off week with a Friday night home game against one of the ACC's top programs, welcoming Louisville to town in the latest test for the Hurricanes' unbeaten start to the 2025 season. With a huge rivalry win against Florida State in the rear view, Mario Cristobal's squad is now focused on finishing strong and securing a spot in the ACC Championship Game, which is the first step to winning the first ACC title in program history. 

Louisville also had last week off but entered its break on a far different note, falling in overtime at home to Virginia back in Week 6. The Cardinals got 329 yards passing and three total touchdowns (two passing, one rushing) from quarterback Miller Moss in the effort, but lost the turnover battle and gave up a walk-off touchdown on the second possession of overtime. At 4-1 overall, Louisville can still accomplish its goals of similarly competing for an ACC title, but that likely requires taking down the top-5 Canes in their own house on Friday night. 

Miami leads the all-time series with a 12-4-1 record, though Mario Cristobal and Jeff Brohm have split their meetings since taking over as head coaches at their respective alma maters. Louisville won 38-31 in 2023 en route to locking up a spot in the ACC title game, then last season Miami got revenge with a 52-45 win in Louisville last year. 

Miami vs. Louisville: Need to know

Carson Beck's resurgence drives the Miami offense: Trying to fill the shoes for Cam Ward was going to be no easy task, but Carson Beck has found similar success without trying to replicate Ward's game. Beck ranks in the top five nationally in completion percentage and has done a great job of staying patient behind one of the best offensive lines in the country to dissect opposing defenses. The Hurricanes aren't putting up the same eye-popping offensive numbers as they did in 2024, but when Beck needs to take over he has shown he is capable of doing so like his 4 touchdown, no interception performance in the win against Florida State.  

Miami defense boasting one of the best DE tandems in the country: The combination of Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain Jr. have taken Miami's defense to a terrifying new level in 2025. The group needed a reset as new defensive coordinator Corey Heatherman took over a unit that was falling short of expectations, and with a new scheme and some healthier weapons the defense has become an absolute strength this season. Mesidor and Bain are among the best in the country when it comes to pressuring the quarterback, and their unique advantages change the way offenses have to adjust their play-calling particularly in key downs. Miami ranks second in the ACC and 14th nationally in third down defense, with that pass rush playing a key part. 

Chris Bell stepping up in ACC play for Louisville: Louisville wide receiver Chris Bell has been one of the best pass catchers in ACC play, totaling 22 receptions for 305 yards and three touchdowns over the last two games. Bell was a machine in the loss to Virginia, racking up 12 receptions for a career-high 170 yards and two scores, becoming the first Louisville player since 2020 to have 170+ receiving yards in a game. Quarterback Miller Moss has been tasked with shouldering more of the offensive load as the Cardinals have dealt with some nagging and minor injuries in the running back room, and he's responded by elevating his production with the help of Bell's outstanding work at wide receiver. 

Where to watch Miami vs. Louisville live

Date: Friday, Oct. 17 | Time: 7 p.m. ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium -- Miami Gardens, Florida
TV: ESPN | Live stream: Fubo (Start watching, save $20!)

Miami vs. Louisville prediction, picks

Miami has a major matchup advantage here when Louisville tries to block one of the best defensive fronts in the country. The Hurricanes don't do anything too exotic, they just have elite players who pin their ears back, win battles in the trenches and get after the quarterback. That's going to make for a long evening for Miller Moss so even if Miami's offense is a little slow out of the gates over the course of the game the Hurricanes should be able to cover the two-touchdown spread. Pick: Miami -13.5