Kansas vs. Fresno State prediction, props, odds: Model's best free college football picks for Week 0, 2025

SportsLine's computer model simulated Fresno State vs. Kansas 10,000 times and released its college football picks for Week 0

By Owen OBrien

Aug 23, 2025 at 4:40 pm ET • 4 min read

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The Kansas Jayhawks host the Fresno State Bulldogs on Saturday in the Week 0 college football schedule in non-conference action. Kansas went 5-7 overall last season, including 4-5 in the Big 12, after going 9-4 in 2023. Fresno State went 6-7 overall, including 4-3 in the Mountain West Conference, under interim coach Tim Skipper. Matt Entz takes over in his first year as Fresno State head coach, and Saturday's showdown will be the first meeting between these teams in program history.

Kickoff from David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium on Saturday is set for 6:30 p.m. ET. Kansas is favored by 13.5 points in the latest Kansas vs. Fresno State odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 49.5. Before making any Fresno State vs. Kansas picks, be sure to see the Week 0 college football predictions from SportsLine's proven model and check out the latest college football odds. The latest FanDuel promo code offers new users $300 in bonus bets if their first bet of at least $5 wins.

The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a betting profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college spread football picks, and was a profitable 27-16 combined on money-line and over/under college football picks in 2024.

Anybody following its college football betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns, especially when paired with the latest BetMGM promo code and DraftKings promo code, just to name a few. Speaking of DraftKings, you can get $200 in bonus bets after new users bet at least $5 with their first wager, in addition to more than $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV. Claim that offer here:

Here are the model's three best bets for Kansas vs. Fresno State:

Fresno State +14
Over 49.5 points
Fresno State Over 17.5 team total

Fresno State +14

After winning two FCS national championships over five seasons at North Dakota State, Entz was hired as the USC assistant head coach last year in pursuit of an FBS head coaching position. Entz went 60-10 at North Dakota State, and although coaching at the FBS level certainly comes with different challenges, Entz appears ready for the task heading into a matchup of two coaches who made their names in lower college football levels before rising to FBS head coaching jobs. The Bulldogs lost the majority of their offensive production last year, including their starting quarterback, but they return Bryson Donelson, who was the team's second-leading rusher at 462 yards on 6.0 yards per carry, which led all players with at least 20 attempts.

Fresno State returns talent on the defensive side though, led by Jahzon Jacks, who has played 29 games over his first three years. Defensive linemen Korey Foreman had three sacks last year for Fresno State after transferring from USC, and Finn Claypool, a Duke transfer, is expected to play an impact role as well. SportsLine's model is backing Fresno State to cover in well over 50% of simulations.

Over 49.5 points

Kansas returns one of the most experienced quarterbacks in the nation in Jalon Daniels, who is set for his sixth season with the Jayhawks. Daniels threw for 2,454 yards and rushed for 447 yards with 20 total touchdowns last season. He enters his fourth year as Leipold's Week 1 starting quarterback, so he should have a strong grasp of the offense to put up points against Fresno State.

Defensively, Kansas allowed 249.3 passing yards per game last season, which ranked 105th in college football, and as you'll see in the section below, Fresno State is introducing a recognizable quarterback with an NFL pedigree to take over its offense. SportsLine's model is projecting the Over to hit in well over 60% of simulations.

Fresno State Over 17.5 total team points

E.J. Warner, the son of NFL Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner, takes over as Fresno State's quarterback this fall. Warner threw for 2,710 yards at Rice last season after two years with more than 3,000 passing yards at Temple. He averaged 307.6 passing yards per game in 2023 as a sophomore at Temple, and the model expects Warner to lead the Bulldogs to a strong offensive start in his Fresno State debut.

Complimented by Donelson, who averaged 6.0 yards per carry last season, Fresno State could have an improved passing and running game from last year's offense, which ranked 112th in college football in total yards. Kansas allowed more than 35 points in two of its final four games last season, and the model predicts Fresno State to score 24 points on Saturday. You can find this prop listed at -105 odds on Fanatics Sportsbook, where new users can get up to $100 back in FanCash each football game day through October 12: