James Madison vs. Troy prediction, pick, odds, spread: Dukes seek Sun Belt title as CFP path emerges
Don't overlook Friday's Sun Belt title game and the impact it could have on the College Football Playoff
By
Cody Nagel
•
3 min read
Don't overlook the Sun Belt Championship Game and the impact it could have on the College Football Playoff. No. 25 James Madison and Troy meet Friday night at Showker Field at Bridgeforth Stadium, in Harrisonburg, Virginia, with more than a conference crown on the line -- a victory for the Dukes could put them in position for an automatic CFP bid, depending on what happens Saturday in the ACC title game. For the Group of Six, this is a rare opportunity to get two teams into the 12-team playoff field.
Then there's the added subplot for James Madison: coach Bob Chesney is set to take over at UCLA, sources confirmed to CBS Sports. While the timing of the move could be a distraction, Chesney's focus remains on guiding the Dukes toward their first conference championship since joining the FBS in 2022.
Winners of the Sun Belt East Division, James Madison enters the title game 11-1, with its only loss coming at Louisville. Troy, meanwhile, finished 8-4 and captured the Sun Belt West Division, returning to the conference title game for the third time in four years. The Trojans won back-to-back Sun Belt championships in 2022 and 2023, giving them experience on the big stage.
James Madison vs. Troy: Need to know
CFP implications: This isn't a simple win-and-in scenario for James Madison. If Virginia defeats Duke in the ACC Championship Game, the Dukes won't make the playoff. And even if Duke pulls off the upset, there's no guarantee the selection committee won't still favor a five-loss ACC champion over what could be a 12-1 Sun Belt champion. The major knock on James Madison is its weak strength of schedule -- currently well outside the top 100 in the FBS -- which makes it harder for the committee to justify a spot over a Power Four champion with a tougher path.
Matchup to watch: Troy's veteran linebacker Jordan Stringer (104 tackles, 11 for loss, 2.0 sacks) ranks 27th nationally in total stops and faces arguably the toughest test of his career against James Madison's dual-threat quarterback Alonza Barnett III (2,440 yards passing, 20 touchdowns; 459 yards rushing, 13 touchdowns) and 1,000-yard rusher Wayne Knight (1,051 rush yds, 8 touchdowns). Stringer will be in the middle of everything as Troy's defense -- 89th nationally at 4.46 yards allowed per rush -- tries to slow down a James Madison ground attack that ranks 15th in the FBS at 5.40 yards per carry.
Balanced dominance: James Madison is one of four FBS teams that rank inside the top 10 nationally in both scoring offense and scoring defense. The Dukes average 37.8 points per game on offense and allow just 16.0 points per game on defense -- both 10th in the country. That balance has led to a dominant overall performance, ranking sixth in both point margin (+227) and spending the least amount of time trailing opponents all season (1:27:29).
Where to watch James Madison vs. Troy live
Date: Friday, Dec. 5 | Time: 7 p.m. ET
Location: Showker Field at Bridgeforth Stadium -- Harrisonburg, Virginia
TV: ESPN | Live stream: Fubo (Try for free)
James Madison vs. Troy prediction, picks
James Madison won't be letting its foot off the gas in this one as it goes for style points to try and impress the selection committee just in case its path to the CFP opens up. The Dukes are a massive favorite over Troy, but they've blown the doors off essentially every Sun Belt opponent this season by an average of 27.38 points per game -- second-most by any FBS team in conference play. Coaching move distractions aside, James Madison should roll to its first Sun Belt title. Pick: James Madison -23.5
Who will win and cover in each conference championship game? Legendary Vegas expert Bruce Marshall is on a 43-36 roll on college football picks. Visit SportsLine now to see all his college football picks.
