James Madison vs. Texas State prediction, odds: 2025 college football Week 10 picks from proven model

The James Madison Dukes (6-1) square off against the Texas State Bobcats (3-4) in a Sun Belt matchup on Tuesday night. The Dukes are rolling, as they've won five consecutive games. On Oct. 18, James Madison beat Old Dominion 63-27. Meanwhile, the Bobcats are on a three-game skid. In its last outing, Texas State lost 40-37 to Marshall in a double-overtime contest. 

Kickoff from UFCU Stadium in San Marcos, TX., is at 8 p.m. ET. The Dukes are 7-point favorites in the latest James Madison vs. Texas State odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 55.5. Before making any Texas State vs. James Madison picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

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The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a betting profit of over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college spread football picks, and it enters Week 10 on a profitable 47-33 combined run on money-line and over/under college football picks since the beginning of 2024. Anybody following its college football betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on James Madison vs. Texas State. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and trends for James Madison vs. Texas State:

Why James Madison can cover

James Madison's offense comes into this game fourth in the conference in scoring (32.3) and third in total offense (432.3). Junior quarterback Alonza Barnett III has 1,252 passing yards and nine passing touchdowns. He's added 266 rushing yards and nine scores on the ground. In his last outing, Barnett III had 295 passing yards, 153 rushing yards and six total touchdowns.

Defensively, the Dukes are first in the conference in total defense (237) and scoring defense (15.6). Senior safety Jacob Thomas has 34 total tackles, four pass deflections, two sacks, and two interceptions. James Madison is 4-2 ATS as the favorite and 5-2 ATS in regular-season games in 2025. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

Why Texas State can cover

The Bobcats' offense ranks first in the Sun Belt in total yards (36.1) and total offense (487.9). Freshman quarterback Brad Jackson has 1,786 passing touchdowns and nine passing touchdowns. In his previous outing versus Marshall, Jackson threw for a season-high 444 passing yards and two passing scores.

Junior receiver Beau Sparks has reeled in 47 catches for 674 receiving yards and six touchdowns. The Texas native has two games with more than 150 receiving yards. On the ground, senior running back Lincoln Pare is fourth in the conference in rushing yards (608) with a Sun Belt high of nine rushing touchdowns. See which team to back at SportsLine.

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How to make James Madison vs. Texas State picks

SportsLine's model is going Over on the total, projecting 67 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins James Madison vs. Texas State, and which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the James Madison vs. Texas State spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that finished up over $2,000 on its FBS college football picks since its inception, and find out.