Five unbeatens remain in college football, and now none from the Group of Six after James Madison's 34-31 overtime loss at Appalachian State on Thursday night in a Sun Belt showdown.
Entering Week 8 with the CFP selection committee's first set of rankings set to debut on Nov. 3, the pecking order has changed with various scenarios now coming into play. The highest-ranked Group of Six team at season's end gets an automatic berth in the 12-team bracket, but the possibility of two potential entries has weakened.
However, the Pac-12's introduction of its "flex week" schedule this season in Week 13 now has extreme significance. The eight-team conference plays a seven-game conference round-robin schedule during the regular season before the final weekend is now designated for a "repeat" matchup, which does not count toward conference standings or deciding who reaches the Pac-12 Championship Game.
That flex week is designed to strengthen the Pac-12's playoff hopes by putting the onus on the league to assess its best teams late in the season and which programs have the most realistic paths to the CFP. Dynamically adjusting their schedules would increase odds of earning a CFP berth.
1. Boise State (5-1)
Most important game remaining: vs. Oregon State, Nov. 14
Ranked No. 21 in the AP Top 25, the Broncos have won five straight games since their season-opening loss at Oregon and are doing all they can to win the Pac-12. They're a two-touchdown favorite in Saturday's matchup at Washington State and are coming off a 38-31 victory at Fresno State in the toughest game since that loss to the Ducks.
Boise State was the preseason favorite to be the Group of Six representative (+750) and carried two-thirds of the vote from our panel of experts. It's clear at this point, with the Broncos ranked, winning out would secure the CFP bid. After JMU's loss, Boise State is the only Group of Six team we can confidently say controls its own destiny over the second half of the campaign. The Broncos currently lead the Group of Six in strength of record (25th), strength of schedule (59th) and game control (20th) — all metrics the CFP selection committee looks at.
2. New Mexico (5-1)
Most important game remaining: vs. North Dakota State, Saturday
Like Boise State, the Lobos' only setback came against a quality Power Four opponent early on the road, a 14-6 loss at Oklahoma. What hurts threats in the Mountain West is resume metrics and lack of quality wins. Maybe the CFP Selection Committee has a different opinion of New Mexico than AP voters in a few weeks, but looking the part is critical for Jason Eck's team moving forward. The Lobos hold the highest strength of record (38th) in the conference right now, with North Dakota State (43rd) second, but their strength of schedule is 108th. Those factors were also playing against JMU heading into the week, but the Dukes were unbeaten, and that was their best asset.
3. Oregon State (5-2)
Most important game remaining: at Boise State, Nov. 14
The Beavers needed several dominoes to fall during the second half of the season with two losses, and the first occurred Thursday night in Boone, North Carolina. This week's Group of Six pick in our CFP projections at CBS Sports, Oregon State could run the table in the Pac-12 with a 10-2 finish, win the league title game and be in the discussion for the Group of Six's highest-ranked team since its only two losses came to nationally ranked Houston and Texas Tech from the Big 12.
The Beavers were the last of four Group of Six teams receiving votes in this week's AP poll, just behind New Mexico and JMU. They'll be pulling for North Dakota State this weekend to upend the Lobos. Oregon State's led by the Group of Six's best overall player, Jesse Legree, who leads the FBS in receiving yards and touchdowns through seven games.
4. UTSA (6-1)
Most important game remaining: vs. North Texas, Nov. 14
At the start of the season, most of us assumed the Group of Six bid would come down to Boise State or the American champion, but there are only two teams — UTSA and North Texas — without a loss in conference play during the first three games of the league slate. Already saddled with two losses, Memphis beat ECU in overtime on Thursday night while UTSA will try to make it five straight Saturday at Tulane. North Texas would've made this ranking had the Mean Green not suffered a resume-tanking setback at Texas State on Sept. 19. As it stands, UTSA's only loss came at Texas.
5. North Dakota State (6-1)
Most important game remaining: at New Mexico, Saturday
The Bison would like to have that six-point loss at UNLV back from earlier this month. The metrics were negatively impacted by that stumble, and North Dakota State may not recover from it. Scenarios change considerably for North Dakota State with a win on the road this weekend, but for now, that mark in the loss column is keeping the Bison at arm's length from other contenders for the auto-berth. To be in the conversation next month, they need to win the Mountain West and hope there's chaos at the top of the Pac-12.
