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No. 18 Michigan had a hiatus from the College Football Playoff last season, but the Wolverines have made three of the last four -- including a 2023 national championship. Heading into the home stretch of the season, the program still has an outside shot to reach the postseason again. 

The Wolverines are 7-2 and on a three-game winning streak since losing to USC. However, they're also coming off of a mediocre performance against Purdue and need every break to go their way in the final weeks. With that said, here's how Michigan stands in November with only weeks until College Football Playoff Selection Sunday. 

Michigan's College Football Playoff path

Remaining path

Michigan's resume comes down to a one-game playoff against No. 1 Ohio State. The remaining games are against bottom-half teams in the Big Ten that won't earn the Wolverines many style points. But Ohio State has been completely unblemished to this point.

If Michigan beats Ohio State, they will still need some help to reach the Big Ten Championship Game. USC has a head-to-head tiebreaker, so they would need to lose another game to open the door. Oregon also needs to lose to either Minnesota or Washington, as they could end up in a separate three-team tiebreaker that Michigan would lose. 

Vegas says

Michigan's odds to make the College Football Playoff are rough, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. The Wolverines feature only +680 odds, which is worse odds than Tulane and nearly on par with Pittsburgh. The odds for the Wolverines to miss the CFP are at -1200. Ohio State is an early 5.5-point favorites against Michigan. 

We think ...

There's only one pathway for Michigan to even have a shot to make the College Football Playoff: Beat No. 1 Ohio State. And even then, that might not be enough. 

Perhaps the greatest complication for Michigan will be its specific losses, neither of which were close. A 31-13 loss to USC means the Wolverines are dependent on the Trojans losing another game. Losing 24-13 against No. 11 Oklahoma means that Michigan is in trouble if compared to either Oklahoma, or a Texas team that beat OU by 17 points. 

And then, Michigan's best wins -- Washington and Nebraska -- have fallen apart down the stretch. The Huskies horrifying loss against Wisconsin means they have no shot to get ranked. The Cornhuskers will finish with a decent record, but any upside from the victory is gone after Dylan Raiola suffered a season-ending injury. Frankly, beating plucky New Mexico 34-17 might be their next-best win. 

Michigan is on a four-game winning streak against Ohio State, the program's longest against the Buckeyes since 1991. A far worse Wolverines team was able to pull the upset last season. If they pull it off, it could be enough to shake up the conversation. But there's no guarantee. 

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