Miami's path to College Football Playoff field: What Hurricanes must do to earn berth in 2025 CFP bracket
The two-loss Hurricanes keep inching closer to the at-large field
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2 min read
After rising three spots in last week's College Football Playoff Rankings, Miami has surged again with a two-spot move to No. 13 on Tuesday night, pushing closer to the "last team in" designation as an at-large selection. The playoff picture within the ACC is messy with two weeks left in the regular season, and for the Hurricanes to be in the hunt for an auto-bid, they're going to have to win out -- and get help -- the rest of the way.
The Hurricanes (7-2) are the selection committee's favorite in the ACC for the second straight week, but probabilities suggest it'll be Georgia Tech and Virginia playing in Charlotte for a conference title -- not Miami -- the first weekend of December.
Under playoff protocol, five highest-ranked conference champions receive auto-bids in the 12-team bracket, so Miami is vying for one of seven at-large spots. Still four spots behind Notre Dame this week, the Hurricanes could use some assistance from teams ahead of them, including Oklahoma and Alabama, with preferred losses over their final games.
Miami's College Football Playoff path
- College Football Playoff ranking: No. 13
- Playoff seed: No. 11 (committee's projected ACC champion)
- Best wins: No. 9 Notre Dame
- Losses: Louisville, SMU
Remaining path
- at Virginia Tech (Nov. 22)
- at No. 22 Pitt (Nov. 29)
No playoff berth starts without convincing wins over the Hokies and Panthers over the next two weeks. If that happens, the Hurricanes can let the chips fall where they may and be in potential mix for an at-large bid. Getting to the ACC final is a bit more complicated.
Miami reaches ACC Championship Game if ...
- Beats Virginia Tech and Pitt
- Virginia beats Virginia Tech
- Pitt beats Georgia Tech, Duke beats North Carolina, SMU beats Louisville
- Cal beats SMU, Wake Forest beats Duke
In this scenario, Virginia (7-1 in ACC) and Miami (6-2) go to Charlotte with four-way tiebreaker advantages over Georgia Tech/Pitt/SMU.
- Beats Virginia Tech and Pitt
- Virginia beats Virginia Tech
- Pitt beats Georgia Tech, Duke beats North Carolina, Louisville beats SMU
- SMU beats Cal, Wake Forest beats Duke
In this scenario, Virginia (7-1 in ACC) and Miami (6-2) go to Charlotte with four-way tiebreaker advantages over Georgia Tech/Pitt/SMU.
Vegas says ...
In Miami's case, odds are stacked against the Hurricanes, but they have improved in the last week at +290 (yes) and -385 (no), per FanDuel. Those numbers will be further enhanced if Miami finishes 10-2.
We think ...
Miami moved up two more spots in Tuesday's update, but there's a hint of false hope there. As the ACC's highest-ranked team, the Hurricanes were the spot-filler at No. 11 in the projected bracket if the season ended today -- but it doesn't and there's work to be done from others within the ACC who need to toss a few alley-oops in Miami's direction. Oklahoma beating Alabama and USF losing to Navy did not help last week, but Texas falling at Georgia appears beneficial.
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