BYU v Texas Tech
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BYU ranks as one of only 10 Power Four teams with one loss or fewer, but the Cougars are sitting on the outside looking in of the College Football Playoff bracket after Week 12. The Cougars lost their first game of the season 29-7 against No. 6 Texas Tech, and now lead only Georgia Tech among one-loss teams. 

However, the Cougars are far from dead in the CFP race, even if they need some help. Certainly, making the Big 12 Championship Game and winning would lock up a spot. Even so, an at-large spot is well within reach if things break right. Here's how BYU's playoff outlook looks heading into the home stretch, including the storylines Cougars fans should keep an eye on. 

BYU's College Football Playoff path

Remaining path

The power of the remaining schedule has fluctuated for BYU as TCU has flopped after high expectations. However, the emergence of Cincinnati gives the Cougars a key opportunity for an important road victory that could keep them in the mix. TCU -- like Iowa State and Arizona -- rates as a top 40-ish team, and would be taken seriously by the committee. 

Additionally, if BYU wins out, the Cougars would likely set up a rematch with No. 6 Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship Game. In Lubbock, the game was noncompetitive. If BYU plays better in the rematch, that would go a long way to establishing credibility. 

Vegas says

Oddsmaker give BYU reasonable odds to reach the College Football Playoff at +350, according to FanDuel. However, the Cougars trail even rival Utah -- which lost a head-to-head matchup and already has a second loss. The -480 odds to miss the playoff seems to imply that Vegas expects BYU to falter down the stretch. 

We think ...

Last season, SMU entered the ACC Championship Game at 11-1 and lost a close game against Clemson. Regardless, the Mustangs still made the College Football Playoff as the final at-large as the committee opted not to punish them for a conference title game. 

By most metrics, this BYU team has a better resume than the 2024 Mustangs. While they have a big loss, Texas Tech is one of the nation's elite teams. And perhaps more importantly, the two teams ahead of BYU -- No. 10 Texas and No. 11 Oklahoma -- play difficult road games against No. 5 Georgia and No. 4 Alabama, respectively, this week. If the board goes chalk, BYU should largely control its own destiny. 

BYU coach Kalani Sitake has a penchant for managing games instead of laying the hammer; that won't cut it anymore. Style points matter.