It has only taken a month of play to already impact the job security of numerous coaches throughout college football.
For some, a big win or two has eased the pressure and increased the optimism that they'll make it to another season in 2027.
For others, a disastrous loss has ratcheted up the heat and outside noise, making it clear that change is needed.
Unlike last year's wildly active coaching carousel that began in mid-September, there hasn't been a head coach firing yet as we enter October. Don't get too comfortable, though, as change could be around the corner.
After speaking with numerous industry sources over the last week, here's a status update on the coaches whose job security has improved and those who may need to start packing soon.
Seats are heating up
Mike Norvell, Florida State
Since the season started, Florida State has fired its AD, suffered a bizarre power outage in its home opener, and has stumbled to a 2-2 record. There's a path to Mike Norvell keeping his job, but it almost certainly needs to include a win over Virginia this weekend. Norvell needs to be in that 7-win range and still has games against Louisville, Miami and Florida on the schedule. With an athletic department in transition, a $46.7 million buyout is still a huge sum to pay out, and it could help Norvell's cause if he can get a few more wins. If Norvell can win two of the next three (UVA, Louisville, Miami) before the bye, there's a viable path to survival.
Mike Locksley, Maryland
After consecutive 4-8 seasons, Mike Locksley entered this season on one of the hottest seats in the country. Long one of the least-resourced schools in the Big Ten, Maryland stepped up its financial efforts to get it out of the Big Ten roster spend cellar. A disappointing 2-2 start, which included last weekend's embarrassing 54-3 loss to UCLA, has raised those temperatures to a scorching level. Industry sources continue to say it is a matter of when, not if, Locksley is let go rather than returning for a ninth season. His only path to survival is a miraculous turnaround, which feels beyond unlikely with Nebraska and No. 5 Ohio State up next. Locksley, who is 39-51 in eight seasons at Maryland, would be owed nearly $10 million if fired.
Dave Doeren, NC State
Before the season started, there were rumblings that Dave Doeren could retire at the end of the year. Doeren has had a lot of success in his 14 seasons at NC State, but 2026 is shaping up to be a disappointing one for the Wolfpack. Beyond the most inexcusable loss of the season to Vanderbilt, NC State hasn't capitalized on quarterback CJ Bailey's potential. This likely wouldn't be an outright firing, but could end similarly to the Wake Forest situation with Dave Clawson, with a mutual retirement decision.
Greg Schiano, Rutgers
No one has had more success at Rutgers than Greg Schiano. He had Rutgers rolling until he left for the NFL to take over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Schiano 2.0 era hasn't had the same highs, as Rutgers struggles to compete in the NIL/rev-share world. Schiano won 7 games in back-to-back years (2022-23), but that'll likely be the highlight of this second marriage. Coming off a 5-7 season, Rutgers is 1-3, including losses to UMass and Boston College. Barring a noticeable turnaround, industry sources feel like Rutgers could open this cycle.
Shane Beamer, South Carolina
The walls seem to be closing in on South Carolina's Shane Beamer. A program that just missed the cut from making the 2024 College Football Playoff has slumped ever since, to the chagrin of Gamecocks fans. Dylan Stewart's recent suspension for out-of-control behavior in a loss to Alabama only amplified the criticism that something is awry in Columbia. There is growing frustration at South Carolina, according to sources, and the next two games (No. 24 Kentucky, at No. 8 Florida) could be key for Beamer holding on to his job through the bye week. Beamer's buyout would be approximately $22.5 million if South Carolina fires him before the end of the season.
Lincoln Riley, USC
Another loss to Oregon (playing a backup quarterback) further inflamed a situation that has been bubbling underneath the surface. Can Lincoln Riley ever be the guy at USC? The answer increasingly looks like no. The next important question: Would USC really pay a $70 million buyout to dump him? There's naturally a lot of industry skepticism there, though CBS Sports' Matt Zenitz reported earlier in the week, "there's a real chance that the Trojans could part ways with Riley." Should USC move on from Riley -- I'd still put it as more unlikely than not -- the industry speculation has been that AD Jen Cohen could try to reunite with Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer after they had a good working relationship together at Washington.
Other situations to keep an eye on: Deion Sanders (Colorado), Fran Brown (Syracuse) and Sonny Dykes (TCU).
Seats are cooling
Dave Aranda, Baylor
Dave Aranda entered this season with CBS Sports' hottest-of-hot-seat ranking, and yet is doing what he needs to do so far to throw cold water on it. Baylor dropped a close Week 1 game to Auburn but has otherwise won its last three games, including last Saturday's win over Colorado. It hasn't looked entirely pretty, but wins are wins. The next five-game stretch will be critical for Aranda. With Arizona State, TCU, Kansas, UCF and Iowa State up next, Aranda would put himself in a good position if he can go 4-1 or better.
Jeff Lebby, Mississippi State
Jeff Lebby's seat was never particularly warm, but there was no question that the 2026 season was critical for proving his program's proof of concept. So far, so good. The Bulldogs are one of the revelations of the early part of the season with a ranked win over Missouri and a perfect 4-0 record headed into their showdown with No. 7 Alabama this weekend. The future looks bright in Starkville with Lebby and star quarterback Kamario Taylor.
Bill Belichick, North Carolina
Chaos may surround Bill Belichick's UNC program, but the Tar Heels have improved on the field this season. UNC (2-1) should be 3-0 and has a big opportunity coming up this weekend against No. 3 Notre Dame. Belichick has lost his two top lieutenants this season -- GM Mike Lombardi and defensive coordinator (and son) Steve Belichick -- but sources indicate he hasn't yet lost the support of UNC chancellor Lee Roberts. What once felt like a potential foregone conclusion at the end of the season could now end with Belichick returning for a third season. The one question that looms over the situation is whether UNC wants to enter what could be a relatively quiet coaching carousel and be one of the most desirable openings.
Luke Fickell, Wisconsin
No coach on the hot seat has secured a bigger win than what Luke Fickell did in Happy Valley on Saturday with a shocking win over No. 13 Penn State. Like Aranda, Fickell entered the season as one of the four coaches on the hottest seat in CBS Sports' preseason rankings. Since then, Fickell has gone 3-1, and the Badgers look noticeably better on the field. New AD Shawn Eichorst isn't itching to make a move, either, according to sources, which plays into Fickell's favor. With approximately $21 million still due in a buyout, Fickell looks more likely to keep his job through four games than he did before the season started. He can't slip up in Big Ten play, though, which continues this weekend against Michigan State.
