Heisman Trophy 2025 odds Week 5: John Mateer, Fernando Mendoza headline favorites

The Heisman Trophy odds have seen a lot of movement over the last couple of weeks. Preseason favorite Arch Manning is now a +4000 longshot, while Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza and TCU quarterback Josh Hoover have shot up the odds board. 

The four favorites at Caesars Sportsbook entering Week 5 are Oklahoma QB John Mateer (+700), Mendoza (+950), Oregon QB Dante Moore (+1000) and Miami QB Carson Beck (+1000).

We will see some significant movement come next week with a massive Saturday on deck, headlined by Oregon vs. Penn State and Alabama vs. Georgia. This is a good time for bettors to try and get ahead of the Heisman Trophy betting market.

Here is a look at how to approach the Heisman Trophy favorites and a few players to bet before the Week 5 results.

Heisman Trophy Odds ahead of Week 5 (odds via Caesars)

Favorites

John Mateer, Oklahoma QB (+700)

Mateer moved to the Heisman favorite after LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier saw his odds drop from +650 to +1600 over the last couple of weeks. Mateer has wins over Michigan and Auburn under his belt, although Oklahoma still has a monster schedule moving forward. 

The Sooners face Kent State next then close the season with Texas, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri and LSU. Ouch. The good thing about facing those teams is Mateer still has plenty of big games to lock down the Heisman. The bad news is if Oklahoma loses a couple, he might be out of the race. 

I'll say this much: Oklahoma has one of the toughest schedules I've seen in recent years. If the Sooners end with two losses and are in position to make the College Football Playoff, Mateer should win the award.

Fernando Mendoza, Indiana QB (+950)

Mendoza opened around +6000 to win the Heisman Trophy but moved to the second favorite at Caesars Sportsbook after Indiana drilled Illinois by 53. Mendoza had a huge game, throwing for 267 yards and five touchdowns. 

Mendoza could win the Heisman but I'm not a fan of these big swings after one game. Indiana has beaten three inferior opponents and Illinois all at home. The Hoosiers have yet to play a road game but that will change when they travel to Iowa and Oregon the next two weeks. Indiana also goes to Penn State on Nov. 1. 

It's a pretty simple scenario. Indiana has to beat either Oregon or Penn State for Mendoza to win the Heisman. If you think that might happen, then he is worth a shot at +950. While I believe Indiana is a good team, Mendoza is too overvalued at this number for me to bite right now.

Dante Moore, Oregon QB (+1000)

This one is easy. If you think Oregon beats Penn State on Saturday, bet Moore now. If you think the Nittany Lions win, hold off for better odds. 

There is a scenario where Oregon suffers a close loss to Penn State and Moore still wins the Heisman if he plays well. The Ducks will be favored in every game for the rest of the season and if Moore continues to pile up big stats, he will be in the conversation. 

I like Penn State to win on Saturday, so I would wait on betting Moore. If he plays poorly, he's out. If he plays well in a loss, you can probably snag him around +1600 next week.

Carson Beck, Miami QB (+1000)

Beck is interesting because Miami played one of its toughest games in Week 1. That can hurt a Heisman contender when they don't have more marquee games on the schedule. 

That's the case with Beck. He already played two of his biggest games against Notre Dame and Florida in September. Miami has one more high-profile matchup against Florida State on Oct. 4. After that, nothing really moves the needle. 

When betting on these awards, narratives matter. I feel like by the time we get to November, Beck will be in the hunt but there will be other flashier options that catch the attention of voters. When I look at Beck, I see a solid third-place finisher for the Heisman Trophy. He is a pass for me at +1000.

Player to avoid

Josh Hoover, TCU QB (+1200)

I love Hoover. I spent all summer going on shows saying Hoover is the most underrated quarterback in college football and TCU is a good longshot bet to make the CFP. But Hoover isn't winning the Heisman Trophy. 

A couple of weeks ago, I said the exact same thing about Devon Dampier. I took Utah to win the Big 12 but I wouldn't bet Dampier +1600 to win the Heisman with your money. Too many things had to go right for Dampier to win the award to bet him at those odds. Guess what? Dampier is out of the race in September. 

Hoover is in the same situation. Love the player. Love the team. There is no way I'm betting Hoover at +1200 to win the Heisman.

Bets to make now

Thomas Castellanos, Florida State QB (+1600)

In my preseason Heisman Trophy article, I gave out Castellanos as my favorite longshot bet at +6000. Castellanos had no room for error. He had to beat Alabama in Week 1 or his Heisman hopes were over. He cleared the first hurdle.

Looking ahead, Castellanos still has three games against Miami, Clemson and Florida to really make a strong case. Assuming FSU doesn't get upset in its other games, Castellanos would need to play well and win those three games to have a shot. I'd have FSU favored in two of those games and a slight underdog at home to Miami, so it's not out of the question. 

I still see value on Castellanos at +1600. I like him more than some players with shorter odds like Mendoza and Hoover. I think Castellanos is the best bet on the board right now. 

Gunner Stockton, Georgia QB (+1400)/Ty Simpson, Alabama QB (+2200)

This is the same scenario as Oregon-Penn State. The winning quarterback of Alabama-Georgia will see his odds drop dramatically next week. That is especially true for Stockton. If he plays well and Georgia wins, Stockton will move to one of the Heisman favorites. 

Simpson is interesting because the Florida State loss came in August and he has played well versus two inferior opponents since. Should Alabama win and Simpson has a big game, he jumps right into the Heisman conversation. The Crimson Tide still have a bunch of higher-profile games left on their schedule, so Simpson can make a strong case over the final month of the season. 

Drew Allar, Penn State QB (+2800)

I don't think Allar will win the Heisman but he does have a path. If he has a strong performance against Oregon and Penn State wins, Allar drops to around +1500 next week. Then he still has games against Indiana and Ohio State to build his resume. 

Allar is similar to Beck for me. I can see a scenario where he finishes third in the voting. However, if you are looking for a longer shot on the board with a path to winning the Heisman, Allar isn't a bad bet.