Heisman Trophy 2025 odds: Two top quarterbacks now co-favorites for the award entering Week 9

Miami's unexpected loss at home to Louisville on Friday night had a big impact on the Heisman Trophy odds. Carson Beck was the co-favorite last week, but he saw his odds drop from +325 to +3500 after throwing four interceptions versus Louisville. To be honest, Beck's odds should be even longer because he is out of the running.

Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson and Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza are now the co-favorites heading into Week 9. Simpson has seen his odds drop from +2200 to +325 over the last few weeks, while Mendoza has been hovering around the top choices since Indiana blasted Illinois 63-10 on Sept. 20. 

The top four Heisman Trophy favorites at Caesars Sportsbook entering Week 9 are Simpson (+325), Mendoza (+325), Ohio State QB Julian Sayin (+400), and Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed (+850). 

Here is a look at how to approach the Heisman Trophy favorites and players to bet before the Week 9 results.

Heisman Trophy Odds ahead of Week 9 (odds via Caesars)

Favorites 

Ty Simpson, QB Alabama (+325)

Simpson appears to be in the driver's seat to win the Heisman heading into Week 9. There is still a long way to go, but I would make the Alabama quarterback the lone favorite after wins over Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee.

Alabama has some big games left on the schedule for Simpson to pad his resume. There are road challenges at South Carolina and Auburn, along with home games against Oklahoma and LSU. 

If Alabama goes unbeaten the rest of the way, Simpson wins the Heisman. 

Fernando Mendoza, QB Indiana (+325)

Mendoza became the favorite a couple weeks ago after Indiana hammered Illinois and John Mateer got injured. He then saw his odds drop back to +1400, but moved to +600 last week after Indiana upset Oregon. With Beck faltering, Mendoza is now the co-favorite with Simpson.  

Mendoza's path to the Heisman is to put up huge numbers the rest of the way. He doesn't have the same schedule as Simpson to woo Heisman voters with his toughest game behind him. The thing that really hurts Mendoza is Penn State no longer being a top team. Now the Hoosiers' toughest remaining game is … UCLA? Maryland? 

The Heisman is a narrative-based award and voters could move on to someone else with Indiana having by far the easiest remaining schedule of the Heisman favorites. 

Julian Sayin, QB Ohio State (+400)

Sayin moved from +1400 to +400 after he threw for 393 yards and four touchdowns against Wisconsin. Sayin is having a good season with 19 touchdown passes and just three interceptions. However, I don't agree with him having the third-shortest odds to win the Heisman. 

I said last week I wouldn't bet Sayin at +1400 odds because he plays with Jeremiah Smith. We saw Smith's odds drop to +2800 even though he had a good game against Wisconsin, too. I would much rather bet Smith than Sayin right now. 

Ohio State has a pretty favorable schedule the rest of the way with Penn State struggling. Michigan is really the only big game left. Sayin would need to have a big performance that day without Smith doing the same to overtake Simpson, in my opinion. Sayin is a pass for me at +400 odds.

Player to avoid 

Dante Moore, QB Oregon (+1400)

Moore is likely out of the running after he struggled against Indiana two weeks ago. I think his only path is all the favorites falter and Moore puts up monster numbers in his final two games of the season against USC and Washington. 

While that is certainly possible, it's tough to win the Heisman when your worst performance is in the team's biggest game of the season. I would need closer to +2500 to take a shot on Moore right now. 

Bet to make now

Diego Pavia, QB Vanderbilt (+1000)

Diego Pavia is interesting because he has the emotional angle going for him. Vanderbilt has been an SEC bottom-feeder for years and no big schools recruited the undersized Pavia to play quarterback. Both Pavia and the Commodores play with a chip on their shoulders with an "us against the world" mindset that appeals to voters. 

While I do believe Pavia is gaining steam with voters, there is one caveat: Vanderbilt has to keep winning. Pavia's story and style of play can win him the Heisman, but for that to happen, the Commodores likely need to run the table the rest of the season. 

That won't be easy. Vanderbilt still has tough games against Missouri, Texas, Auburn and Tennessee. 

If you believe Vanderbilt has a good chance to win its next two games over Missouri and Texas, bet Pavia now. Two more wins and he will be one of the betting favorites with odds around +350. Pavia at +1000 is the best odds you will get the rest of the year if the Commodores keep winning.