Heisman Trophy 2025 odds, predictions: Texas QB Arch Manning the favorite ahead of Week 1
College football expert Thomas Casale breaks down the latest Heisman Trophy odds ahead of Week 1 of the college football season

The first full college football weekend starts off with a bang. There are three matchups between the AP preseason Top 10 teams. On Saturday, No. 1 Texas faces No. 3 Ohio State, while No. 4 Clemson hosts No. 9 LSU. The action continues on Sunday when No. 6 Notre Dame and No. 10 Miami square off at Hard Rock Stadium.
With so many huge games in Week 1, we should see more early movement in Heisman Trophy odds than ever before. The four favorites at Caesars Sportsbook entering the season are Texas QB Arch Manning (+500), LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier (+700), Clemson QB Cade Klubnik (+800) and Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith (+1000). Saturday's outcomes will certainly impact the odds of all four players.
Here is a look at how to approach the Heisman Trophy favorites and a couple of players who could join the list when the dust settles in Week 1.
Heisman Trophy Odds ahead of Week 1 (odds via Caesars)
Favorites
Arch Manning, Texas QB (+500)
Manning doesn't ease into the starting job at Texas. He is the Heisman favorite to open the season and has a chance to make this a one-horse race early with a big performance and win at Ohio State. If Texas loses, Manning will still be in the hunt, although we will have a new favorite come Monday.
When betting on the Heisman, I look for narrative and opportunity. We know Manning has the narrative of being related to Peyton and Eli. He also has the opportunity with two massive games against Ohio State and Georgia scheduled perfectly. He faces the Buckeyes on Saturday and Georgia on Nov. 15, giving him the opportunity to start and end strong with voters.
I have Texas ranked No. 1 in my preseason power rankings, and I bet them +3 versus Ohio State. I like the Longhorns to win that game outright. If they do, the hype around Manning will approach Tim Tebow level. I'd bet Arch now instead of waiting.
Garrett Nussmeier, LSU QB (+700)
Nussmeier is in the most interesting spot this weekend. Because LSU faces such a tough schedule, he can play well and lose but still win the award.
With all due respect to Texas vs. Ohio State, I think Clemson vs. LSU could be the best game of the weekend. I am high on both squads entering the season and like them to make the College Football Playoff. I also bet LSU +4, expecting a tight game that goes down to the fourth quarter.
I would roll the dice on Nussmeier. There is no question his odds will shorten if LSU wins on the road. However, the Tigers also have games against Florida, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Texas A&M and Alabama. It's highly doubtful LSU runs the table with that schedule. We could see better odds on Nussmeier later in the year.
Out of the three quarterbacks at the top of the Heisman oddsboard, Nussmeier is in the best position to lose in Week 1 and still win the award.
Cade Klubnik, Clemson QB (+800)
If you like Klubnik, bet him before Week 1. The reasoning is simple. If Clemson loses at home to LSU, Klubnik has virtually no chance to win the award, so getting better odds is irrelevant.
Clemson simply doesn't have the schedule for Klubnik to lose his toughest game of the season and still win the Heisman. After LSU, the Tigers' biggest games are against SMU and South Carolina. That's not enough to move the needle.
Trying to gauge some of the Heisman candidates heading into a monster Week 1 is difficult. Klubnik is the exception. Clemson needs to win for him to have a chance. It's now or never to bet on Klubnik to win the Heisman.
Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State WR (+1000)
Once every decade or so, a special player enters college football. Smith is one of those players.
Receivers aren't likely to win the Heisman, even with Travis Hunter taking home the award last season. While the odds are against Smith winning, there are a couple of things in his favor.
Two of the last five winners have played receiver. There is a chance we are seeing voters change the way they value players over the last few years. There also aren't a lot of established quarterbacks returning to top teams. Title contenders Texas, Ohio State, Georgia, Alabama, Oregon and Notre Dame are all breaking in new, inexperienced quarterbacks. That could open the door for someone like Smith.
The other thing I like about Smith is the quarterback position is typically linked to wins and losses. Receivers aren't held to the same standard. Ohio State can lose to Texas, but if Smith has a huge game, his candidacy won't take a big hit.
I don't hate Smith's odds at +1000 to win the Heisman. He will still be a strong contender even if his team loses in Week 1 based on the position he plays. I could go either way with Smith, but my gut tells me win or lose, we might not see his odds improve much throughout the season. I would go a half unit now and hit it again if Texas beats Ohio State.
Keep an eye on...
Julian Sayin, Ohio State QB (+1600)
I heard a rumor Manning isn't the only quarterback playing in the Texas-Ohio State game this Saturday. Sayin isn't getting much love right now, but we could see a major move in his odds if the Buckeyes win and he plays well.
Again, it comes down to which team you like to win the game, and I lean Texas. However, if you think Ohio State prevails at home, Sayin is worth a look at +1600 odds.
Ty Simpson, Alabama QB (+1600)
Simpson won the starting quarterback job at Alabama, and while his odds probably won't move much if the Crimson Tide beat Florida State, he is a player to watch.
Alabama is a big favorite in Week 1, although not many quarterbacks will be on the national stage as often as Simpson. After FSU, the Crimson Tide still play Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina and LSU. The Georgia game on Sept. 27 is the big one. If Simpson plays well in that game and Alabama wins on the road, he will be right in the Heisman hunt.
CJ Carr, Notre Dame QB (+2800)
Carr is the starting quarterback at Notre Dame, and his first game is in primetime against Miami. Those two things give him a chance to put his name in the Heisman hat right away.
The Notre Dame coaching staff has been raving about Carr, and while he is likely a year away from being a serious contender, a strong performance on national TV against the Canes will put him in the conversation.
The Irish then get Texas A&M at home on Sept. 13. Carr is a longshot right now, but no player in the country can make a bigger Heisman statement with two strong performances in early September. Keep him on your radar.