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We have a new betting favorite to win the Heisman Trophy heading into Week 8. Miami quarterback Carson Beck tops the odds board at +325. Beck has moved from +1100 to +325 over the last two weeks.

Beck was the co-favorite with Oregon quarterback Dante Moore last week. However, after the Ducks lost to Indiana at home, Moore dropped to +1800 and Beck claimed the top spot even though Miami was on bye. Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza saw his odds move from +1400 to +600 following the Hoosiers' impressive win.

The top four Heisman Trophy favorites at Caesars Sportsbook entering Week 8 are Beck (+325), Alabama QB Ty Simpson (+350), Mendoza (+600), and Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith (+1000).

Here's a look at how to approach the Heisman Trophy favorites and players to bet before the Week 8 results.

Heisman Trophy Odds ahead of Week 8 (odds via Caesars)

Favorites 

Carson Beck, QB Miami (+325)

Beck saw his odds drop from +1100 to +550 after Miami defeated Florida State two weeks ago. The Miami quarterback is now the favorite even though the Canes didn't play last week. I'm not sure that will last, though. 

The problem with Beck is it's only October and Miami played all of its tough games early in the season. The Hurricanes' biggest remaining regular season game is at SMU. A strong effort against the Mustangs isn't really going to move the needle. Beck might be worthy of the award, but he isn't a flashy pick and my concern is people will fall in love with another candidate.

I would pass on Beck at this number. He's having a great season, but I think he comes up just short in the voting. 

Ty Simpson, QB Alabama (+350)

Simpson's Heisman odds continue to fall after Alabama defeated Missouri on Saturday. The Alabama quarterback has seen his odds drop from +2200 to +350 over the last three weeks, and I believe he should be the clear favorite right now. 

Alabama still has some big games left on the schedule for Simpson to pad his resume. There are still road challenges at South Carolina and Auburn, along with home games against Tennessee, Oklahoma and LSU. 

I'm not sure Alabama will run the table with that schedule, but if they go unbeaten the rest of the way, Simpson likely wins the Heisman. 

Fernando Mendoza, QB Indiana (+600)

Mendoza became the favorite a couple of weeks ago after Indiana hammered Illinois and John Mateer got injured. He then saw his odds drop back to +1400 last week, but Mendoza is back in the hunt after Indiana's upset over Oregon. 

Mendoza's path to the Heisman is to put up huge numbers the rest of the way. He doesn't have the same schedule as Simpson to woo Heisman voters with his toughest game behind him. The thing that really hurts Mendoza is Penn State no longer being a top team. Now the Hoosiers' toughest remaining game is…UCLA? Maryland? 

My concern with Mendoza is similar to Beck. The Heisman is a narrative-based award and voters could move on to someone else with Indiana having by far the easiest remaining schedule of the Heisman favorites. 

Jeremiah Smith, WR Ohio State (+1000)

Smith is pound-for-pound the most dominant player in college football, so he is always a threat to win the award. Writers have also changed the way they vote for the Heisman Trophy in recent years with two receivers -- DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter -- winning the award since 2020. 

Smith's path to the Heisman comes down to Michigan. Like Mendoza, Smith is hurt by Penn State's freefall. However, the Michigan game is key because it's the final week of the season with all the Heisman voters paying attention. I believe Smith can win the award that day with a huge performance. 

Smith's odds have moved between +750 and +1000 since August. I don't expect that to change unless he has back-to-back weeks with little production.  

Players to avoid 

Julian Sayin, QB Ohio State (+1400)

Some guys are really good players but don't have a realistic chance to win the Heisman Trophy. Sayin is one of those players.

The main reason to avoid Sayin is he plays with Smith, one of the Heisman favorites. It's hard to see a scenario where Sayin overtakes Smith for the Heisman. The only way it happens is if Sayin has three or four huge games without Smith being much of a factor. That's unlikely. 

I wouldn't touch Sayin at +1400. I think his odds should be closer to +3000. 

Dante Moore, QB Oregon (+1800)

Moore is likely out of the running after he struggled against Indiana last week. I think his only path is all the favorites falter and Moore puts up monster numbers in his final two games of the season against USC and Washington. 

While that is certainly possible, it's tough to win the Heisman when your worst performance is in the team's biggest game of the season. I would need closer to +2500 to take a shot on Moore right now. 

Bet to make now

Jayden Maiava, QB USC (+2200)

The players I put in this section aren't necessarily bets I am making personally. They are sometimes wagers based on timing. Maiava falls into that category. 

Maiava has two marquee games coming up, starting this week against Notre Dame. He also faces Oregon on Nov. 22. That is perfect scheduling for someone to win the Heisman. Ideally, you want your toughest games at the end of the season when more voters are paying attention and Maiava checks that box. 

The problem for Maiava is USC already lost a game. The Trojans would likely need to beat both Notre Dame and Oregon as road underdogs for Maiava to take home the Heisman. I don't see that happening, although Maiava at +2200 is good value compared to some other players around those same odds. If you think he has a chance, bet him now.