Heisman Trophy 2025 odds: Fernando Mendoza slightly favored over Ty Simpson ahead of Week 10
SportsLine college football expert Thomas Casale breaks down the latest Heisman Trophy odds ahead of Week 10 of the 2025 college football season

The Heisman Trophy odds didn't move much after Week 9 with the same four players remaining the favorites. The only change is Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is now the lone favorite at +310 odds. Last week, Mendoza and Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson were co-favorites at +325.
The top four Heisman Trophy favorites at Caesars Sportsbook entering Week 10 are Mendoza (+310), Simpson (+325), Ohio State QB Julian Sayin (+350), and Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed (+575).
Here is a look at how to approach the Heisman Trophy favorites and players to bet before the Week 10 results.
Heisman Trophy Odds ahead of Week 10 (odds via Caesars)
Favorites
Fernando Mendoza, Indiana QB (+310)
Mendoza became the favorite a couple of weeks ago after Indiana hammered Illinois and John Mateer got injured. He has been hovering around the top of the odds board since and became the sole favorite again after his odds moved to +310 this week.
Mendoza's path to the Heisman is to put up huge numbers the rest of the way. He doesn't have the same schedule as Simpson to woo Heisman voters with his toughest game behind him. The thing that really hurts Mendoza is Penn State no longer being a top team. The Hoosiers' remaining games are against Maryland, Penn State, Wisconsin and Purdue.
The Heisman is a narrative-based award and voters could move on to someone else with Indiana having by far the easiest remaining schedule of the favorites. Mendoza is in the running, although he is almost in a no-win situation over the next month because big performances against those four opponents don't really move the needle. I think Mendoza needs Alabama to lose a game to take home the award.
Ty Simpson, Alabama QB (+330)
Simpson jumped to the top of the list last week after wins over Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee. Alabama was in a tough spot on Saturday facing South Carolina after four big games and I am surprised to see Simpson's odds drop a bit after he led the Tide to a late comeback win.
I still believe Simpson is in the driver's seat to win the Heisman. Alabama has some big games left on the schedule for Simpson to pad his resume. There is a road matchup at rival Auburn, along with home games against Oklahoma and LSU.
If Alabama goes unbeaten the rest of the way, I believe Simpson edges out Mendoza for the Heisman.
Julian Sayin, Ohio State QB (+350)
Sayin moved from +1400 to +400 after he threw for 393 yards and four touchdowns against Wisconsin two weeks ago. Now, he is down to +350. Sayin is having a strong season with 19 touchdown passes and just three interceptions. However, I don't agree with him having the third-shortest odds to win the Heisman.
I have been saying for weeks I don't like betting on Sayin to win the Heisman because he plays with Jeremiah Smith. Smith is sitting at a juicy +4000 right now. I would rather take a shot on Smith right now. I still believe if Smith has a huge game against Michigan on Thanksgiving weekend with all the voters watching, he has a puncher's chance to steal the award. Meanwhile, Sayin has to battle it out with a few other quarterbacks and I give Simpson the edge out of the top candidates.
Ohio State has a favorable schedule the rest of the way with Penn State struggling. Michigan is really the only big game left. Sayin would need to have a big performance that day without Smith doing the same to overtake Simpson in my opinion. Sayin is a pass for me at these odds.
Player to avoid
Haynes King, Georgia Tech QB (+2200)
I actually think King should have shorter odds to win the Heisman based on performance and team success. So, why is he a player to avoid? Georgia Tech doesn't have the schedule for King to win the award.
Georgia Tech's best win is at home over Clemson with remaining ACC games against NC State, Pitt and Boston College. King really needed one of those games to be against Miami to catch the attention of Heisman voters.
There is one caveat here. The Yellow Jackets close the season with Georgia. King needs to play well, Georgia Tech has to pull the upset and a couple of the favorites would have to falter for him to take home the award. I'm saying there's a chance. However, it's not a very good one.
Bet to make now
Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt QB (+800)
Pavia is interesting because he has the emotional angle going for him. Vanderbilt has been an SEC bottom-feeder for years and no big schools recruited the undersized Pavia to play quarterback. Both Pavia and Vanderbilt play with a chip on their shoulders with an "Us against the world" mindset that appeals to voters.
I think Pavia is the best value on the board and if you are going to bet him, do it now. Vanderbilt plays Texas on Saturday. If Pavia plays well and the Commodores pull the upset on the road, Pavia moves from +800 to one of the favorites next week.
It's now or never to bet Pavia to win the Heisman Trophy.
Gunnar Stockton, Georgia QB (+1200)
Not many people are talking about Stockton but he is sneaking around with a chance to rise up the odds board in the next few weeks. Stockton is coming off his best game of the season against Ole Miss two weeks ago where he accounted for 348 total yards and five touchdowns.
November is when Heisman voters really start paying attention, so late-season schedules matter. Georgia faces Florida on Saturday and still has games against Texas and Georgia Tech. If there is one player who can come from the middle of the pack and steal the Heisman late in the season, I think it's Stockton. He is worth a look at +1200 odds.















