Georgia Tech's stunning loss at NC State likely ends the ACC's multi-team College Football Playoff outlook

After several close ACC wins this season for unbeaten Georgia Tech, the dam finally broke defensively during Saturday night's 48-36 loss at NC State, the second stunner in conference play to highlight Week 10 following SMU's overtime triumph over Miami.

The Wolfpack had the Yellow Jackets on the ropes throughout the second half, countering every punch with uppercuts in the form of touchdowns of their own through red-hot quarterback CJ Bailey and a big-play offense playing without two of its top talents -- tailback Hollywood Smothers and tight end Justin Joly.

NC State piled up 583 yards of total offense -- including a career-best 196 yards rushing from Duke Scott -- and sent Georgia Tech (8-1, 5-1) to a resounding first setback. Virginia (8-1, 5-0) is the ACC's lone remaining unbeaten in conference play and clinches a spot in the conference championship game with wins over Wake Forest, Duke (5-3, 4-1) and Virginia Tech to finish out the regular season.

With Georgia Tech's unexpected loss, the ACC likely will not have a team inside the top 10 of the College Football Playoff Rankings when the selection committee unveils its first top 25 on Tuesday night unless the Hurricanes (6-2, 2-2) get the benefit of the doubt since they've posted three wins over ranked teams.

Louisville (7-1, 4-1) and SMU each have one loss in conference play, but one of those two will be eliminated from reaching the title game when they meet on Nov. 22 in Dallas. That leaves one-loss Virginia and Duke, who play one another on Nov. 15, to try and fill the other side of the equation in the first weekend of December.

The best Georgia Tech can finish is in a multi-team tie for first, and then it would come down to various tiebreakers under the ACC's policy, that was enacted in 2023 with conference expansion.

With the selection committee's new strength of schedule metric set to debut this week, the ACC will be far lower than the SEC and Big Ten in the pecking order and likely the Big 12, as well. Virginia's lone ranked win this fall came against Florida State, while Georgia Tech beat Clemson for its quality win and Louisville beat Miami.

The ACC champion gets an automatic bid to the playoff, but those in the mix for one of seven available at-large spots will be battling against the likes of the SEC and Big Ten's runner-up, others within those leagues with double-digit victories and a potential 10-win Notre Dame. 

Best-case for a two-bid scenario for the ACC would be Georgia Tech beating Georgia in Atlanta during rivalry weekend, but losing the following weekend against one of these one-loss in conference challengers. That would mean the Yellow Jackets are 11-2 overall with a pair of ranked wins, and could let the chips fall where they may with the selection committee during at-large deliberations.

SMU earned the ACC's second bid in last year's first year of expansion after losing its second game of the season to Clemson in the league title game, but this time around, it's going to take mass chaos the rest of the month outside of the conference to warrant inclusion for a league's second selection.

This is partly why ACC commissioner Jim Phillips was a strong advocate for further expansion over the summer, knowing his league was a bit top-heavy and needed strong showings from its preseason elites to get there. Instead, Clemson has flatlined, Florida State has struggled and Miami has lost two of its last three games after starting 6-0.

There will be no microphone holding this time around for the conference it appears, unless much falls in the ACC's favor over the final weeks.