How is Diego Pavia not the Heisman Trophy frontrunner? Star QB at forefront of Vanderbilt's CFP push

During a week in which Fernando Mendoza was on a bye and Julian Sayin had a reasonably pedestrian effort in a blowout over Rutgers, Diego Pavia took control of the Heisman race. Except predictive betting markets don't agree, with FanDuel Sportsbook tabbing Pavia as No. 4 in the race. 

The flaw with markets for voter-based awards is they have no information on what voters are going to do, and can only hope to predict the narratives will gain steam during the closing stretch of the season, which is when Heismans are won or lost. 

We know the voting process for the Heisman Trophy is beyond flawed. There are 930 voters from coast to coast. The voters who cover individual teams are unable to watch as many of the games and players they'd like to. So here's some help.

There hasn't been a more transformational presence in college football this year than Vanderbilt's QB1. He's the most important player in the sport and could take Vanderbilt (VANDERBILT!) to the playoff. 

Diego Pavia strikes Heisman pose, asserts award candidacy as Vanderbilt takes down LSU in program-defining win

Carter Bahns

The Commodores rolled past Kentucky last weekend thanks to a 484-yard, five-touchdown effort from Pavia, and I didn't even mention his 48 yards and rushing touchdown that helped power Vanderbilt to a program record-tying ninth win. 

If you just want to go by stats, check out Pavia head-to-head with Mendoza and Sayin (the two odds-on-favorites) through 11 games: 

• Pavia -- 2,924 yards, 26 TDs, 6 INTs, 71.8 CMP%, 9.4 YPA | 661 yards rushing, 5 YPC 8 TDs
• Mendoza -- 2,641 yards, 30 TDs, 5 INTs, 73 CMP%, 9.5 YPA | 216 yards rushing, 3.5 YPC, 5 TDs
• Sayin -- 2,832 yards, 27 TDs, 4 INTs, 79.4 CMP%, 9.4 YPA | 20 yards rushing 

Yep, Pavia's accounted for more yardage than the other two with similar yards per attempt and accuracy numbers. Advanced metrics love Pavia, too. He ranks fifth in ESPN's QBR ratings and second for PFF among quarterbacks. 

Sayin's completion percentage is historic. If he finished the season today it'd be an NCAA record. Sayin also has the great benefit of playing within the Buckeyes' talent infrastructure. He hasn't really been stressed. Ohio State is yet to trail in the second half of a game, and its only current ranked win (Illinois will drop out this week) is over Texas at home in Week 1.

Mendoza is certainly impactful for Indiana. He's had the Heisman moments voters fall in love with, including a come-from-behind drive against Penn State that will live in Indiana lore. He, like Pavia, is also lifting a historically downtrodden program to new heights. At the same time, Indiana is a program with a talent infrastructure that reached the playoffs last year. Mendoza is an upgrade over Hoosiers 2024 QB Kurtis Rourke. He'll be a Day 1 draft pick. But the offensive results from Rourke to Mendoza aren't really all that different: Indiana ranked 15th in yards per play last year and sits at 13th in 2025. 

Pavia, for all intents and purposes, is Vanderbilt's offense. He's the maestro of college football's No. 1 attack in terms of yards per play (Ohio State and Indiana rank outside the top 10). It's a system that works through Pavia. He passes with extreme accuracy, keeps teams accountable with his legs and is like an eel in the face of pressure -- he just slips away. Vanderbilt was a nice story when it won seven games last season. Pavia bucked the NCAA to return in 2025 and made the Commodores a legitimate playoff threat. 

Remember, this is Vanderbilt we're talking about. It's a program that's long been the butt of SEC jokes. The team every SEC fan hoped to see on their schedule. Pavia's changed that completely. 

The Heisman isn't an MVP award. It goes to the most outstanding player in the sport. So I understand the argument for others. I just ask this: What's more outstanding than helping Vanderbilt navigate an SEC schedule and leading the nation's top-ranked offense? 

Maybe Mendoza, Sayin or even Marcel Reed make a statement in huge games down the stretch and change my mind. But when I think of the 2025 season and the player who defined it, I have a hard time looking anywhere else than Nashville. 

Pavia's willed the Commodores to a place nobody thought possible, doing so in style. He's a deserving Heisman frontrunner.