College football may be a sport defined by blue-blood dominance, but the programs atop the sport can change in an instant.
Just think about the 2025 College Football Playoff.
Texas Tech made the bracket. Ole Miss reached the semifinals. Miami, lost in the wilderness for years, reached the national title game. Indiana won a national championship! College football's always seen volatile year-by-year swings, and it's happening more frequently than ever in the era of the transfer portal and NIL.
The drastic turns go both ways, too.
Penn State was a drive away from playing for a national title in 2024. It won just seven games the following year and James Franklin was fired after a 3-3 start. Clemson played Texas close in the first round and had national title hype going into 2025. The Tigers went just 7-6 as a follow up despite a roster with nine draft picks.
Rosters turn over quickly, which means teams can see their records vary wildly from year to year based on who they lose and how they recruit.
Look at what it's been like to be a Northwestern fan since 2018:
- 2018: 9-5
- 2019: 3-9
- 2020: 7-2
- 2021: 3-9
- 2022: 1-11
- 2023: 8-5
- 2024: 4-8
- 2025: 7-6
That's at least a two-game swing every season!
That leads us to potential risers and fallers entering 2026. Using our insider knowledge of programs, returning production numbers and some common sense, CBS Sports is projecting this upcoming season's big risers (a two-plus win jump) and fallers (two or more losses) from each Power Four conference.
Rise: Virginia Tech Hokies
2025 record: 3-9 | FanDuel 2026 win total: 6.5
Here's a good reason to believe the Hokies will make at least a two-win jump in 2026: James Franklin's never won fewer than six games in a full season as a head coach. That includes when he took over a two-win Vanderbilt in 2010. In this era with NIL (and Virginia Tech invested), the transfer portal and Franklin's history of success? It'd be a shock if the Hokies didn't at least double their win total and reach bowl eligibility.
The schedule is favorable other than road trips to SMU, Miami and Clemson. Frankly, when a team is trying to stack wins, it's in some ways better to have the tough games on the road. It makes the home games that you should win easier.
Also, Virginia Tech returns a ton of experience. Fourteen starters are back and reinforced with 27 transfers, including a bounty of talent that came with Franklin from Penn State.
Could you question Virginia Tech's unproven quarterback situation? Sure. Will it take Franklin some time to get his program built? Absolutely. But five wins should be considered a lock for the Hokies. Anything less than six would be a massive disappointment.
Tumble: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
2025 record: 9-4 | FanDuel 2026 win total: 6.5
Brent Key has set an incredibly high floor – at least when considering Georgia Tech's history – in his three seasons with the Yellow Jackets. He's won seven-plus games in three straight seasons, which hadn't happened for the program since 2012-14. But it should be noted that Georgia Tech's only won eight or more games seven times this century, so another eight-win campaign would buck history.
It doesn't help that Georgia Tech returns just seven starters – including just two on offense – and will have one of the most difficult schedules in the ACC. That slate includes 11 games against Power Four competition, including matchups with Colorado and Tennessee in nonconference play. Georgia Tech does avoid Miami and SMU, but it will still play six bowl teams from last season in its eight conference matchups.
On top of everything else, the Yellow Jackets are replacing both coordinators, their quarterback and are still searching for a defensive answer after three straight seasons of worse-than-average units in terms of yards per play.
Rise: Oklahoma State Cowboys
2025 record: 1-11 | FanDuel 2026 win total: 6.5
It almost feels like cheating to include Oklahoma State. They won only a single game last year, and the Cowboys haven't won fewer than four games in a two-season stretch at any point in their 112-year history.
But I'm willing to go further than just calling for Oklahoma State to jump two wins in 2026. This is a bowl team.
The Cowboys have the best collection of skill talent in the Big 12. Drew Mestemaker is a legitimate first-round talent. Caleb Hawkins was the best running back in the G-5 last year for North Texas. At receiver the Cowboys have one of the deepest rooms in the country with Wyatt Young, Chris Barnes, Israel Polk, Justin Bowick and Miles Coleman. Are there some questions about the o-line? A few. But Eric Morris' offenses come with an incredibly high floors, and it's hard for that combination of skill talent not to produce, especially in a league like the Big 12 where the defensive lines aren't overwhelming.
Oklahoma State's defense has a lot to prove. It will, however, be a veteran-heavy unit that will rotate a lot of pieces. And you have to believe in defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity, who transformed the defenses at Sam Houston and North Texas in back-to-back seasons. He'll get the most out of the Cowboys in 2026.
Tumble: Iowa State Cyclones
2025 record: 8-4 | FanDuel 2026 win total: 4.5
It could be a tough first season for the Cyclones under Jimmy Rogers. He's done nothing but win in his career. But he's stepping into Year 1 in Ames as the only program in the Power Four with zero returning starters. Worse still, the Cyclones drew a schedule that includes trips to Iowa, BYU and Arizona along with tough home games against Utah, Kansas State and Oklahoma State.
Rogers does have experience turning over a roster and producing right away. Washington State returned just three starters last year, brought in 28 transfers and still managed to win six games. But it's a much different test in the Big 12 and the overhaul is even bigger with 75 new signees.
That's just too much new to avoid a drop in the win column.
Rise: UCLA Bruins
2025 record: 3-9 | FanDuel 2026 win total: 6.5
As we saw in the case of Curt Cignetti at Indiana, sometimes a good coach is all it takes for a program to make a rapid leap. So may I present Bob Chesney, who is 132-52 in his career with only a single losing season on his resume – and even that 2018 campaign saw Holy Cross finish second in the Patriot League.
Chesney, who took over for Cignetti at James Madison, used Cignetti's Indiana blueprint upon transitioning to Los Angeles. He took almost his entire Dukes staff and also brought 10 key contributors with him as well. That group is the foundation of a Top 25 transfer class, a 42-player group that resets the talent level of UCLA's roster, which will be MUCH more expensive in 2026 than 2025.
It helps that the Bruins already have an answer at quarterback. Nico Iamaleave proved to be a bright spot for UCLA last season, playing much better than his traditional stats might indicate.
There's no truly easy schedule in the Big Ten. But the Bruins have a favorable non-conference slate (Cal, San Diego State, Nevada) and only have to play Oregon of the Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana triumvirate atop the league.
A bowl should be very much in reach for UCLA this season.
Tumble: Illinois Fighting Illini
2025 record: 9-4 | FanDuel 2026 win total: 6.5
Illinois hasn't won eight-plus games in three plus seasons since 1903.
That's the history the Illini are up against in a quest to hit the eight-win barrier for a third straight season. Bret Bielema has clearly raised the floor of Illinois football. He's the only Illini coach in the last 100 years to have a better than a 55% win rate.
But it's going to be difficult with Illinois' schedule and its returning production to keep up its nine-win pace from a season ago.
The Illini return the fourth-fewest starters in the Big Ten (seven). It must replace its entire front seven and the program's most productive quarterback since Juice Williams. While the schedule is reasonably favorable by Big Ten standards – Illinois will only be a heavy underdog against Ohio State and Oregon – it will still be a slog.
Seven wins would be a better result than all but eight seasons for Illinois this century. Bielema and his coordinators are too good for Illinois to fall off the map, but it's going to be difficult to win eight-plus games once again.
Rise: Florida Gators
2025 record: 4-8 | FanDuel 2026 win total: 7.5
Florida is going to be better than most people think.
The schedule is once again extremely difficult. But the Gators quietly have an excellent roster. Florida's defensive line will be among the nation's best with multiple draft-quality players littering that unit. Florida also brings back starters from its back seven and fortified that unit with a quartet of defensive backs from the portal.
Offensively, Florida is loaded. Jadan Baugh is arguably the best running back in the country. Dallas Wilson, Vernell Brown III and Eric Singleton Jr. form one of the best wide receiver trios in the FBS. The Gators also bring back a pair of starters on the offensive line and another four players in from the portal. The big question mark for Florida is at quarterback. If Aaron Philo can be even an average SEC starter, the Gators should make a big jump offensively from the unit that ranked 91st nationally last season in yards per play. It certainly helps that new offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner, who comes from Georgia Tech, is a big play-calling upgrade over what the Gators have had in recent years.
Florida needs to hit the five-win barrier to increase its win total from a season ago. That should be the minimum jump for a team this talented.
Tumble: Vanderbilt Commodores
2025 record: 10-3 | FanDuel 2026 win total: 5.5
Vanderbilt has been consistently underestimated by the media the last few seasons. But it's somewhat telling that the Commodores were the only team in the preseason all-SEC team to not have a single player selected among the three teams.
Some of that is a lack of voter awareness. Junior Sherrill is a future draft pick at receiver, for example. But it is fair to question how the Commodores will overcome the talent deficit gap in the post-Diego Pavia era, especially when a true freshman (albeit a talented one in Jared Curtis) is likely to take his place.
Vanderbilt would have to win nine games this season to avoid a two-game drop off. That's only happened four times for the program since 1915. The schedule doesn't help. They have a non-conference game against NC State, have to travel to Georgia and draw Ole Miss, Alabama and Tennessee at home.
The Commodores could win seven games with a true freshman quarterback and have a successful season. Winning nine would instantly cement Clark Lea as one of the best coaches in the country.
Independent with national title ceiling: Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2025 record: 10-2 | FanDuel 2026 win total: 11.5
The Irish won 10 games a year ago, which means they need to win at least 12 games in order to reach that win total. I think that's a good bet. The Irish are going to win at least 11 games in the regular season and I expect them to make a playoff run.
Notre Dame, which returns 14 starters, is well equipped to make a deep playoff run. An easy schedule along with a deep and talented roster will carry the Irish far in 2025. By the way, Notre Dame plays only three teams that will begin the season ranked in the regular season. Two of those three games (Miami, SMU) will take place at home. Of the preseason top-10 teams, the Irish are the team I'm most confident will make an upward swing in 2026.
