College football Week 8 betting notes: Spread trends and betting angles from proven expert

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With non-conference games all but finished for the season and few FBS vs FCS matchups to worry about any longer, it's time to pay a lot more attention to recent performances, point spread streaks, etc. -- especially those handful of teams that have fattened up on soft non-league schedules and are now finding the going a bit more treacherous in conference play against upgraded opposition.

By the midway point of the season, some patterns are well-defined, but others are still about to emerge. This is why we pay particular attention to a couple of our weekly calculations, specifically the point spread streaks and "away from spread" calculations. Now is the time when many teams historically begin to ascend in the second half of the season; correspondingly, now is often the starting point for steep descents for several sides. This is why we would pay particular attention to the last couple of results, especially vs. the spread, as any number of current two-game spread streaks, win or lose, could grown into something much more significant down the stretch.

By identifying the teams in the earliest stages of streaks, within those collections are the "streakers" for the second half of the season. We will elaborate further upon team to keep an eye upon when we conclude this piece with our weekly Fade/Shade alert.

We also remind you to pay attention to the following point spread reversal listing, introduced within this space last week, wherein we identify teams off a spread result, win or lose, different from at least its two preceding spread results. Again, this is another potential indicator of teams perhaps ready for a turnaround, good or bad.

Point spread reversal plus (+)

The teams: Arkansas, Arkansas State*, BYU, Charlotte, Colorado State, Georgia Tech, Houston, LSU, Middle Tennessee, New Mexico State*, Purdue, Sam Houston, Southern Cal, SMU, UCF, UTSA, Washington, West Virginia and Wyoming.

*Subsequent midweek game this week not included.

Within the above grouping, several of those might not be candidates to reel off a long win streak, their inclusion reflective of only one result last week. That grouping might include lowly Charlotte (off of a last second backdoor cover vs. Army, a game in which the 49ers should have been trailing by more than 24 into the last minute), Middle Tennessee (a narrow spread cover in an outright loss to Missouri State), and underachieving Sam Houston (which played a subsequent game this midweek). Of those listed above, a couple to perhaps watch might be Arkansas, which, temporarily at least, seemed more energized under interim HC Bobby Petrino in last week's 34-31 loss at Tennessee, and UTSA, which has made late-season rallies in the past for HC Jeff Traylor and played its best game of the season in last week's 61-13 drubbing of Rice at the Alamodome.

Point spread reversal minus (-)

The teams: Arizona State, Ball State, Central Michigan, Cincinnati, Illinois, Louisiana Tech, Michigan State, Mississippi State, North Texas, Ole Miss, San Jose State, South Carolina, UNLV and Utah State.

Similarly, the above grouping invariably includes several teams after nothing more than one-off results. Yet there might be signs of pending trouble at Michigan State and perhaps the MAC entries (Ball State and Central Michigan) in what is rapidly becoming a very defined league this season. We would keep an eye on sorts such as La Tech, Utah State, and UNLV, which were punching considerably above their wight in the first half of the season, and in some cases taking advantage of soft scheduling (UNLV).

Point spread win streaks

6: Memphis, Texas Tech

5: Iowa, Alabama 4-0-1 last five

4: Colorado, Kennesaw State, Notre Dame, San Diego State, Virginia, Western Michigan

3: Duke, Eastern Michigan, Hawaii, Kansas State, Kent State, Maryland, Miami-Ohio, South Florida, Temple, Troy; UCLA, Wake Forest, Western Kentucky*

2: Air Force, Appalachian State, Clemson, FAU, Georgia, Liberty*, Miami-Fla, Northwestern, Pittsburgh, Texas A&M, UL-Lafayette, Utah, Washington State.

*Subsequent midweek game this week not included.

We'll be making extra note of a few of those listed above in the "Shade" portion of this feature. The teams on the longest streaks obviously bear scrutiny as they continue to overachieve vs. the spread. It might surprise some to see Iowa now trending at the top tier of this list on five straight spread covers, rather quietly so, for HC Kirk Ferentz. The Hawkeyes get the serial underachiever of the season, Penn State sans HC James Franklin, this weekend at Iowa City. Also, Deion Sanders has rather quietly (yes, quietly and Sanders usually don't mix) steered his Colorado to four straight spread covers. We also might make special note of Maryland, which is working on three straight covers but has also blown its last two games outright in galling fashion at home vs. Washington and Nebraska, kicking away late leads vs. both the Huskies and Huskers...perhaps not the sign of any endorsement based upon inclusion in the above list.

Point spread losing streaks

6: Penn State

4: Baylor, Boston College, Minnesota, Texas State

3: Florida State, Fresno State, Jacksonville State*, Kentucky, Navy, Nebraska, South Alabama, Stanford, Tennessee, UTEP*; East Carolina 0-1-2 last three, Minnesota 0-2-1 last three

2: Boise State, Florida International*, Iowa State, James Madison, Michigan, Missouri State, North Carolina, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Oregon State, Rice, TCU, Tulsa, UAB, ULM, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech.

*Subsequent midweek game this week not included.

Obviously, a lot of the go-against sides to this stage of the season are listed above. In some case, like Navy and James Madison, it might be more a case of the team simply being a bit overvalued, as the Mids and Dukes have also been winning outright. As for Florida State, it was being overvalued, too, but unlike Navy and JMU, the Seminoles are now losing outright. Sides with new coaches such as Rice and Tulsa might be worth monitoring as it's often hard for a new regime, simply trying to gain some traction, to regain momentum after losing steam at midseason.

Away from spread past two decisions ... plus (+)

UCLA +31.75
Duke +26.00
Northwestern +23.25
Pittsburgh +23.00
San Diego State +20.75
Washington State +20.75
Western Michigan +19.50
Iowa +18.50
Kennesaw State +17.50
Wake Forest +17.50
Kent State +17.25
Memphis +17.00
Colorado State +16.50
Marshall +16.25
Hawaii +15.75
UConn +15.75
Clemson +15.50
New Mexico State +14.00*
FAU +13.00
South Florida +13.00
UTSA +12.75
Virginia +12.50
App State +12.00
Texas Tech +11.50
Troy +10.00
Kansas State +9.75
Temple +9.50
Eastern Michigan +7.75

*Subsequent midweek game this week not included.

As noted, one particularly good (or bad) result away from the spread can prove distorting and include a team in any two-week calculation for the above list. What we always try to seek are teams that continue to appear in above list; San Diego State makes an appearance for a third consecutive week, suggesting that the Aztecs' improvement aren't a one-off for HC Sean Lewis. Western Michigan, a surprise leader in the MAC entering mid-October, is another with three straight weeks of inclusion on the "+" side.

Away from spread past two decisions ... minus (-)

Florida International -29.00*
Penn State -27.00
Boston College -26.00
Rice -23.50
ULM -18.00
North Carolina -16.00
Michigan State -15.50
Wisconsin -15.50
Texas State -15.00
Oregon State -14.00
Ole Miss -13.75
Arkansas -13.50
Syracuse -13.50
UAB -12.75
North Texas -12.50
UTEP -12.00*
Arizona State -11.75
Sam Houston -11.00*
James Madison -10.00
La Tech -9.75
Michigan -9.25
Iowa State -8.50
Kentucky -8.50
Florida State -7.75
Nevada -7.75
Oklahoma State -7.75
Georgia Tech -7.50
Navy -7.50
TCU -7.50
Tulsa -7.50
Old Dominion -7.25
West Virginia -7.25

*-Subsequent midweek game this week not included.

Though one bad spread result can distort the above list as much as one positive result on the plus, there's also nowhere to hide for a side that's going bad. Penn State's well-publicized recent troubles are reflected in rare back-to-back outright losses favored by 20 points or more (ouch!), with the result being Franklin walking the plank last Sunday. Boston College wasn't favored in its last two games, but severe beatdowns administered by Pittsburgh and Clemson put the Eagles right near the top of a list that no team wishes to reach.

Shade/Fade alert this week

Clemson

Is it too late for the Tigers to salvage this season?

Well, those national title talks cooled considerably by mid-September when the Tigers dropped three of their first four games outright, ranking alongside Arch Manning's Heisman hype as one of the biggest false alarms of the season. And the last-second, Sept. 13 loss at Georgia Tech makes any route to the ACC title game look very treacherous, as Clemson would lose a tiebreaker vs. the Yellow Jackets (who have yet to lose) as the most-likely foe to get a shot at Miami, whose path to Charlotte seems fairly clear.

Still, there's lots of pride at Death Valley, and a veteran roster was never likely to pack it in for Dabo Swinney, who was able to keep most of his roster out of the portal and committed to the Tiger cause, and used a bye week after the Sept. 20 loss to Syracuse to effectively rally the troops for one last stand. Clemson has often closed a season fast, such as two years ago without any sort of playoff carrot, and recent road wins in dominating fashion over North Carolina and Boston College (admittedly two of the season's biggest disappointments) seems to indicate that if nothing else, the Tigers have back some of their mojo.

There's also senior QB Cade Klubnik, whose Heisman campaign derailed in September but burnishing his NFL stock with recent good efforts (including 8 TD passes the past three games), though check Klubnik's status for this weekend, as he has been limited in practice this week by an ankle tweak suffered late in the BC romp. The rest of the schedule isn't a picnic, but three straight home games vs. SMU, Duke, and Florida State give Dabo a chance to impact the ACC race, and a decent bowl bid should probably suffice in lieu of a very unlikely playoff invite.

Next game: Saturday vs. SMU.

Lean: Shade

Kansas State

It could be a tale of two seasons for the Wildcats, who were already on three losses by mid-September before a bye week allowed HC Chris Klieman to recalibrate in an tempt to salvage the season in Manhattan. So far, mostly so good, as the Cats are almost back to .500 with wins in two of three, and probably should have swept that trio of games that included a bitter one-point loss at Baylor, when the Cats, thanks in part to disastrous 66-yard pick-six thrown by QB Avery Johnson with under five minutes to play turned out to be a pivotal play in what became a 35-34 loss, with the Cats getting a long FG try blocked on the last play of the game.

It was still a spread cover for K-State, however, as was the subsequent 34-20 win over UCF and last week's 41-28 success vs. TCU. The offense has come alive in recent weeks, as QB Johnson has shaken off an indifferent starts and, reportedly upon insistence from his coaches, is now running more and making plays on the move after seeming to camp out in the pocket a bit too long (too perhaps impress NFL scouts?) in the first month of the season. Making the Big 12 title game looks out of reach, and K-State still has to scramble just to get bowl-eligible, but the DNA of Klieman's program is related to success, and we suspect the Cats will continue to provide value in the second half of the season.

Next game: Oct. 25 at Kansas.

Lean: Shade

Michigan State

The vultures are starting to circle at Spartan Stadium as the natives are getting justifiably restless at the lack of progress made by MSU under second-year HC Jonathan Smith, who arrived from Oregon State amidst much fanfare but to this point hasn't provided much improvement from the rubble inherited from the disgraced Mel Tucker regime, which unraveled early in the preceding 2023 with assistant Harlan Barnett serving in an interim role for the duration of a 4-8 disappointment.

Smith was given a partial mulligan by the fanbase for last year's 5-7 mark, though the grumbling was beginning as aside from a midseason upset of Iowa, Sparty looked nothing like the dynamic Beaver teams that Smith had coached previously in Corvallis. It was dull and boring, as MSU ranked 110th in total offense and scored just 19.3 points per game. A soft pre-league slate helped Smith break 3-0 from the gate this season, but the fanbase wasn't fooled, angered by more poor point spread performance (the spread losing streak reached eight in a row after an uninspired win over Youngstown State on Sept. 13), and MSU has plumbed new depths in conference play by opening up 0-3 with a trio of double-digit losses, none more humbling than the 38-13 beatdown courtesy underdog UCLA last week at East Lansing.

Among other things, the fanbase is angered that Smith didn't do more in the portal regarding his QB situation, mostly entrusted to Aidan Chiles, who moved to MSU along with Smith from Corvallis (where Chiles saw only limited action) and fell apart in recent losses to Nebraska and the aforementioned Bruins, who KO'd him last week. What has really angered the fanbase is that Curt Cignetti arrived at Indiana from James Madison at the same time Smith came to East landing from OSU, and Cignetti has done nothing but push the right buttons with the Hoosiers, including shrewd work in the portal market for his QBs, last year Kurtis Rourke (via Ohio U) and this year Fernando Mendoza (via Cal), now among the Heisman favorites. Further differences between the state of the programs at IU and MSU will come this Saturday at Bloomington, as more and more Spartan backers wonder if they need to cut ties with Smith sooner rather than later.

Next game: Saturday at Indiana.

Lean: Fade

Northern Illinois

For the most part, the Huskies have been a tough out, if nothing else, under the stewardship of HC Thomas Hammock, who has kept NIU generally competitive in his six previous seasons that have featured bowl wins the past two years as well as that memorable upset win at Notre Dame last September. Hammock's teams have usually been able to keep opposing defenses honest by conscientiously running the ball (ranking an impressive 16th in national rush stats a year ago), but the formula isn't working nearly as well this season in DeKalb.

Most of the blame falls on the QB position, where Hammock has gotten basically nothing from holdover Josh Holst or frosh Brady Davidson, who took over last week vs. Eastern Michigan but could only pass for 94 yards in an unsightly 16-10 loss in Ypslianti. Holst and Davidson have combined for just two TD passes at the halfway point of the campaign, and as the infantry isn't working nearly as well this season (a very modest 70th in national rush stats at 157 yards per game), NIU's offense has become stuck in the mud. National stats tell the story: the Huskies rank 132 (out of 134) in total offense at just 257 yards per game, ahead of only option teams Rice and Army in passing offense (only 99.8 yards per game), and above only UMass in scoring at a paltry 10.8 points per game. Sheesh!

NIU has also lost five straight since struggling for a 19-17 win over FCS Holy Cross in the opener, with those 19 points vs. the Crusaders also the high-water mark for scoring in 2025. NIU is only 1-5 vs. the line, and has been Under in five of six games, the only exception landing on 39 points vs. Miami-Ohio in a game with a posted a total of 38.5.

Next game: Saturday at Ohio U.

Leans: Fade vs. spread and shade the Under

Other possible Shade teams: Texas and Miami-Ohio

Other possible Fade teams: Wisconsin and Kentucky