College football Week 7 betting notes: Spread trends and betting angles from proven expert

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Into mid-October we go in the college football season, and it's time to introduce a new weekly calculation into this space.

One of the eternal quests for handicappers, as noted previously, is to find teams in the earliest stages of extended winning and losing streaks. We have listed a couple of potential identifiers in past weeks, including the current point spread streaks and AFS (away from spread) calculations, which appear below.

Added to the mix this week are what we refer to as point spread reversals, where we seek to identify teams that might be ready for a turn in spread fortunes...both win and lose. Though hardly an absolute indicator, we have seen enough teams reverse course in the past and often kicked ourselves for not jumping on the emerging trend a bit sooner.

What the point spread reversal list highlights will be teams that have recorded a spread result in their last game that is different from the spread results of at least two previous games. Thus, a team that has failed to cover two or more in a row, then covers the number in its last game, will appear on the plus (+) side of the calculation. Conversely, teams that lose a spread decision after covering at least two or more in a row in preceding games will be including in the minus (-) side. This exercise is not meant as a go-with, or go-against, recommendation for any of the included teams -- rather, it's a simple guide to look within these lists for potential point spread streaks that might be upcoming. Usually, there's at least one ascender and one descender in the reversal list.

The following are the teams to be included after their last games/spread decisions.

Point spread reversal plus (+)

Air Force, Army, Appalachian State, Arkansas State, Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Florida Atlantic, Georgia, Georgia State, Nevada New Mexico State, Pittsburgh, Washington State, West Virginia, Wisconsin. Also UConn (Huskies were 0-2-1 their previous three vs. line).

Point spread reversal minus (-)

Boise State, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Delaware, Georgia Southern, Indiana, James Madison, Marshall, Michigan, Mississippi State, Missouri State (played Wednesday night), New Mexico, Rice, ULM.

The following is an updated look at the current point spread streaks of two or more coming into this week.

Point spread wins in a row

6: Memphis

5: Louisiana Tech, Texas Tech, Utah State

4: Ball State, Iowa, Virginia, UNLV

3: Cincinnati, Colorado, Duke, Florida, North Texas, Notre Dame, Ole Miss, San Diego State, Western Kentucky. Western Michigan, Arizona State (2-0-1 last three)

2: Hawaii, Illinois, Kansas State, Kennesaw State, Maryland, Miami-Fla, Miami-Ohio, Michigan State, San Jose State, South Carolina, South Florida, Temple, Troy, UCLA, Wake Forest

Point spread losses in a row

5: Penn State, Sam Houston, SMU

4: Baylor

3: Arkansas, Boston College, Jacksonville State, Kentucky, Minnesota, Northern Illinois, South Alabama, Texas State USC, Wyoming

2: Charlotte, Colorado State, Florida State, Florida International, Fresno State, Georgia Tech, Houston, LSU, Middle Tennessee (before Wednesday night), Missouri, Navy, Nebraska, North Carolina, Purdue, Stanford, Tennessee, Tulsa, UCF, UTEP (before Wednesday night) UTSA, Vanderbilt, Washington

The following are this week's AFS (away from spread) numbers for a running two-game average; all teams with at least 7 points plus or minus are included.

AFS (away from spread) plus

Duke +26.00
Texas Tech +19.75
Notre Dame +19.50
Ball State +18.00
UCLA +17.75
Pittsburgh +17.25
Memphis +16.00
UConn +15.75
Western Michigan +15.75
Maryland +14.50
Wake Forest +14.00
New Mexico State +13.75
Virginia +12.50
Old Dominion +11.75
Miami-Ohio +11.50
Delaware +11.00
Louisiana Tech +11.00
Utah State +11.00
Northwestern +9.50
Missouri State +8.00 (before Wednesday night)
Illinois +7.75
San Diego State +8.00
Temple +7.75
Cincinnati +7.50.

AFS (away from spread) minus

Florida International -29.00
Arkansas -23.00
Boston College -22.50
Sam Houston -22.50
Penn State -20.50
Colorado State -18.50
North Carolina -16.00
Syracuse -13.50
Wisconsin -12.25
Houston -10.25
Tulane -10.00
Tulsa -10.00
Georgia Tech -9.50
Kentucky -8.50
Clemson -8.25
Florida State -8.25
Minnesota -7.75
Navy -7.25
UTSA -7.25

Week 7 shade/fade

This week's "shade/fade" alert highlights the following teams.

Air Force

Like last year, when it took a while for the Falcons to find some traction, which finally came when QB Quentin Hayes emerged as a competent pilot for Troy Calhoun's time-tested offense, so Air Force looks to have discovered its new conductor for the offense in dynamic QB Liam Szarka. The sophomore, who has grabbed his chance at the starting job among a couple of other competitors after Hayes withdrew from the Academy in spring, is suddenly putting an enormous charge into the Falcons' offense that has hit at least 30 points in four games running -- mind you, those were all losses, but Air Force was swinging all of the to the final gun in each of those against likely bowl qualifiers, and efforts have been getting progressively better, most-recently last week's narrow miss at heavily-favored and unbeaten Navy.

As for Szarka, his rushing numbers are growing each week, from 40 yards in the Utah State game to 110 vs. Boise State, to 139 vs. Hawaii, and then to 152 last week at Annapolis. Szarka has also passed for better than 200 yards in each of the past three games, firing seven TD passes compared to just two picks across that span, and is he had throw a handful more passes than the 65 he's attempted this season, would be the runaway national leader in yards per completion (Szarka is at 13.1 yards per completion after last week). Szarka has been moving the offense so fast that the defense has been getting out on the field too quickly, hence some of these high scorelines in Falcon games. Yet after watching the Falcons roar in November a year ago, winning their last four, it would be no surprise if they begin another streak a bit earlier this fall.

Lean: Shade

Boston College

Honeymoons with fanbases for coaches usually only last until the first losing streak. To that end, any bliss that Bill O'Brien might have had with the BC supporters ended long ago, as the "new coach buzz" has completely disappeared. It doesn't look like much fun to play for O'Brien, who took over last year and whose personality can be of the sour-milk variety even when things aren't going pear-shaped, but his Eagles aren't providing any mystery right now as their season has fallen into the abyss. All the fanbase can hope for is that last week's abject capitulation at Pitt (a runaway 48-7 winner) marks the nadir of the campaign, and things can't get much worse.

Hopes of a quick turnaround seem unlikely as depth, a concern heading into the season, has already been tested on the defensive side where several Eagles have been sidelined. Then there's the offense, which has been imbalanced all season (ranking 129th in rushing at only 85 yards per game, not to mention a sluggish 3.2 yards per carry), and now with QB issues as O'Brien pulled starter Dylan Lonergan, who had ranked among the nation's passing leaders in September, last week vs. the Panthers as backups Grayson James (who started several games for BC last season as well as an earlier stint at FIU) and freshman Shaker Reisig took snaps in the second half.

O'Brien has now lost four in a row since running up a score on outmanned Fordham in the opener, surely angering the ghost of Vince Lombardi, with the toughest part of the schedule still to come, beginning this week vs. Clemson and including the likes of Louisville, Notre Dame, SMU, and Georgia Tech down the stretch. BC fans don't want to hear this, but things might get even worse in Chestnut Hill.

Lean: Fade

Nevada

Nevada? Did we say Nevada?

The Wolf Pack are hiking in the lower altitudes of the nearby Sierras this season, but there is some reason for optimism in Reno after last week's closer-than-expected 20-17 loss (but handy spread cover) at Fresno State. That's because HC Jeff Choate might finally have found a QB in true freshman Carter Jones, who appears as if he can provide something of a downfield aerial dimension to what has been a very staid Nevada offense that's spent the first half of the season ranked near the bottom of FBS offensive stats (to wit: the Pack's offense ranks 117th overall as well as 129th in scoring at only 15.4 points per game). Yet there was no legit passing element to the offense with early-season starters Chubba Purdy (formerly Florida State and Nebraska) and AJ Bianco, who have combined for just two TD passes and nine picks (eight of those belonging to Purdy!) between them. Jones would match their combined TD pass production in his first game taking meaningful snaps at Fresno, with his ability to make downfield throws on the move a refreshing departure from the stultifying limitations that Purdy and Bianco were bestowing upon the offense.

There has been nothing wrong with Choate's hard-trying defense this season (indeed, it made the game-winning play in Nevada's only SU win to date, when DE Jonathan Maldonado recorded a pick-6 just outside of the 2-minute warning to beat Sac State, 20-17), while RBs Caleb Ramseur and Herschel Turner, while not spectacular, are effectively pluggers both gaining nearly five yards per carry. It's the emergence of Jones, however, that could make Nevada a team to keep an eye on in the second half of the season in the Mountain West.

Lean: Shade

UCLA

The Bruins who were in ruins? Last week's shocker over Penn State might not be the one-off that many seem to believe. It would be easy to dismiss that stunner of a result considering how badly UCLA had played in the first month when it broke 0-4 from the gate. But there is consensus among close observers on the coast that the problems were a direct result of second-year HC DeShaun Foster simply being overmatched by the job, with the lack of organization having reached beyond critical levels in last month's humiliating 35-10 home loss to New Mexico that forced AD Martin Jarmond to pull the plug on the Foster experiment.

Assistant Tim Skipper was promoted from his position as an assistant, inheriting an interim position that was familiar to him after stepping in for Jeff Tedford twice at Fresno State in recent years, including the entire 2024 season in the Central Valley. Skipper did get the Bulldogs bowl eligible last fall, and more than a few in the region thought he should get the FSU job on a full-time basis (the Bulldogs instead hired former NDSU HC Matt Entz, who had spent last fall at USC), so he's not without some credentials. Skipper has been allowed to shake up things, naming new coordinators, including Jerry Neuheisel, whose debut as OC last week was a smashing success as the offense finally unleashed QB Nico Iamaleava, whose performance against the Nittany Lions looked like the second coming of Colin Kaepernick (on the field, that is) when he was at Nevada, the running game also popping for the first time this season, and the defense making key plays, including a late and crucial fourth-down stop of Penn State QB Drew Allar.

In short, the Bruins now look organized, something they didn't in September under Foster, and it's worth noting that Skipper is also now 2-0 against the line in the interim role at Westwood, having covered his debut game the previous week at Northwestern, too. Michigan State has been forewarned for this week!

Lean: Shade