dabo-swinney.jpg
Imagn Images

One of the best things about moving into conference play in college football is that the countless mismatches we've seen in matchups vs. FCS opposition will mostly be history once the calendar turns to October. There's no greater example of the vagaries of early season play than Penn State, which has every reason to be thrilled about its dominant 3-0 start and nearly 40-point average margin of victory (albeit vs. much lesser opposition). Of course, Penn State bettors aren't exactly thrilled that the Nittany Lions are 0-3 against the spread.

Penn State has laid 40+ points against each of its first three foes, two of which (Nevada and Villanova) scored backdoor touchdowns deep into the fourth quarter to net covers for their teams. Villanova in particular left it late, scoring on a circus catch on the final play to finally get on the board. It made the score 52-6 and also got the Wildcats inside of the 47.5 spread.

The bottom line is that for many of these non-conference mismatches, spread results become more random than usual, especially with lines of five TDs or more.

Nonetheless, results are results, so we'll note teams that have failed to cover thus far, and whether that streak is likely to continue. As we've already noted Penn State's misleading spread situation, we won't include the Nittany Lions in the list below.

Spread losing streaks

Clemson (0-4 ATS)

This week: Bye, next game Oct. 4 at North Carolina

Holding the pole position for most disappointing team in the nation, the Tigers appear to have been wildly overrated by the pundit class that mistook returning starters for a great team. While returning most of a roster is generally a good thing, it was a good, not great, Tigers team last season, and the same cast needed to take a step up for Clemson to have another title run. Instead, Dabo Swinney's team now adjusts its sights to the Pop-Tart or Duke's Mayo Bowls as the College Football Playoff is looking very far-fetched for a team that's 1-3 and already 0-2 in the ACC. If ever a team needed a bye this week, it's the Tigers.

Verdict: We've got to think there are some wins and covers still out there, and a chance to regain some momentum beginning with Bill Belichick's misfiring North Carolina next week

Georgia State (0-4 ATS)

This week: Bye, next game Oct. 4 vs. James Madison

The Panthers could use a week off after Vanderbilt ran up 70 points in a revenge match last Saturday at Nashville. Perhaps GSU ought to think twice about scheduling SEC foes in the future after allowing more than 66 PPG in losses to the Commodores and Ole Miss during opening week. A couple of tidbits about this downturn include QB T.J. Finley not only joining the team at midweek before the Memphis game on Sept. 6, but subsequently taking most of the snaps against the Tigers a couple of nights later, and continuing in the saddle. 

Verdict: We'd make the Panthers actually cover a spread before considering anything else

Kansas State (0-4 ATS)

This week: vs. UCF

Might there be something about the Week 0 game in Dublin that seems to derail the season for the loser? Recent defeated teams in the Emerald Isle Classic, like Nebraska in 2022 and Florida State last year, proceeded to have highly disappointing campaigns  We're trying to find another explanation for K-State's inauspicious start to the campaign which includes that loss to Iowa State in Ireland and continuing misfires by the offense. Quarterback Avery Johnson and a normally-reliable ground game have mostly stalled, ranking a poor 118th at just 108 yards per game. Is any of this at the door of OC Matt Wells, who was sharing duties with Conor Riley last season before the latter departed for the NFL and the Cowboys?

Verdict: We've seen no indicator that K-State is about to shake from its doldrums. Yet be prepared to jump back on the bandwagon once the Wildcats win and cover a game, as they can't underachieve all season... can they?

Liberty (0-4 ATS)

This week: at Old Dominion

The Flames continue to look like the poster child for being overrated, flying into the national conscience two years ago when they qualified for the New Year's Six bowls (before getting crushed by Oregon 45-6 in the Fiesta Bowl). Since then, Liberty looks simply to have been overvalued. Its spread difficulties actually began late in the heralded 2023 campaign and now counts 15 spread losses in the last 19 games dating to mid-November of 2023. This year's troubles include outright losses as chalk vs. both Jacksonville State and Bowling Green. The Flames are likely still a bowl team, but head coach Jamey Chadwell's magic that he originally brought to Lynchburg with him from Coastal Carolina has been hard to find lately.

Verdict: This spread downturn has lasted too long to be a mere blip, even as the oddsmakers continue to be a bit slow on the draw.    

Louisville (0-3 ATS)

This week: at Pittsburgh

Put Louisville in the same category as Penn State, as the losing spread mark is totally a reflection of inflated prices. The Cards are actually quite happy to be 3-0 right now and look like a strong contender in the ACC behind USC transfer QB Miller Moss. Like the Nittany Lions, Jeff Brohm's side has been on the cusp of clearing some of the big prices from previous weeks, and it's worth noting how Eastern Kentucky and Bowling Green came in late via the back door in those games. 

Verdict: Nothing to worry about with the Cards. Louisville won't be laying three TDs again this season.

Oklahoma State (0-3-1 ATS)

This week: at Baylor

It has been one of the swiftest falls from grace, at least that didn't have to do with any off-field issues, that we can recall. Yet the complete collapse of the Cowboys program since the middle of last season, capped with a 69-3 loss at Oregon (that could have been worse) in early September, and last Friday's inexplicable home loss to Tulsa, signified there was no way back for Mike Gundy, who walked the plank on Monday after 21+ years in charge of his alma mater. Short-term, will anything change under promoted interim Doug Meacham? Considering that the meat of the schedule is still to come, and the Cowboys are already down their projected QB Hauss Hejny, we're not holding our breath. The extended downturn includes 1-11 SU and spread marks since early last season.

Verdict: Continue to fade unless there's some indicator the Cowboys aren't as wretchedly bad as they've looked.

Oregon State (0-3-1 ATS)

This week: vs. Houston

That the Beavers actually managed a spread push last week vs. the hated Ducks serves as an upgrade of sorts for OSU spread fortunes, though it took a near five-TD spread for the Beavers to actually not lose a spread decision. Momentum seems lost for the time being in Corvallis as OSU (and Washington State, for that matter) wait for the debut of the newly-configured Pac-12 next season. 

Verdict: Perhaps transfer QB Maalik Murphy triggers a revival, but with few carrots remaining on the horizon this season, we won't hold our breath for an OSU recovery anytime soon under beleaguered head coach Trent Bray.

Sam Houston (0-4 ATS)

This week: Bye, next game Oct. 2 at New Mexico State

Do the Bearkats have an excuse?  Well, sort of, as they have a new head coach in well-traveled Phil Longo, and SHSU is playing its home games in Houston's MLS stadium this season as its own park undergoes redevelopment. Worryingly, however, each effort in the 0-4 start has become progressively worse, culminating in the 55-0 loss at Texas last Saturday. It's also been hard to ignore how disorganized the 'Kats have looked as the losing streak grows.

Verdict: We've still got a week before we next see SHSU, though until this decent straight into the abyss begins to slow down, we'd make the Bearkats prove us wrong before changing course.

UCLA (0-3 ATS)

This week: at Northwestern

The Bruins' ultra-slow start has already cost DeShaun Foster his job and caused the fans to start counting the days until basketball season. Maybe UCLA should just forfeit the rest of its games? The only hope is that UCLA might start to look a bit more organized, especially on defense, for interim head coach Tim Skipper, who kept Fresno State afloat in a similar role last season and might deserve the benefit of the doubt, at least in the short-term. The material on hand never indicated the sort of train wreck we saw in the first three games, though at this point, UCLA isn't projected to be favored for the rest of the season. It can't get any worse... can it?

Verdict: We suggest a pause this week at Evanston just in case Skipper can find some traction. But if there's no signs of improvement, there's still more than half of the season ahead to go against the Bruins.

UMass (0-3 ATS)

This week: at Missouri

Now part of the MAC, the Minutemen might have caught a break last week by getting a bye, but so far, new head coach Joe Harasymiak might be wondering why he took this job. Having your new team get blasted 42-10 by Temple and then losing to FCS Bryant can tend to make a coach wonder what's next. Perhaps UMass finds some firmer footing once conference play begins, and the MAC might prove a refuge of sorts after recent years in the Independent ranks. Though it looks like the oddsmakers are going to want to make us pay to go against UMass, beginning this week at unbeaten Mizzou. 

Verdict: As prices likely inflate, we wonder if there will be any real value going against the Minutemen until further notice. Not an endorsement for UMass, it's just that we might have better things to do than lay big points either this week with the Tigers, or with upcoming MAC foes. 

Virginia Tech (0-4 ATS)

This week: at NC State

At least the Hokies have an outright win under their belts (if not a spread cover), as interim Philip Montgomery, who was Tulsa's head coach for many years, got a gimme last week vs. Wofford in his Blacksburg debut. Still, the transition to wherever the program turns next season after hitting the eject button on Brent Pry after the ODU embarrassment suggests an awkward at best two months, as any players with eligibility remaining who don't avail themselves of the early portal offered to players from teams with in-season coaching changes will surely be looking at transfer options after the season -- as will the assistant coaches. Though there's always a chance this turns into an audition for Montgomery, consensus opinion is that Tech cleans house after the season.  

Verdict: Perhaps don't fade Tech for now, as the oddsmakers seem to have already made some downward adjustments on the Hokies, beginning with this week.