College football Week 4 power ratings: Miami moves up a tier, USC breaks into top 20 after Week 3 wins

We see a couple of preseason favorites tumble down the power rankings this week, as Clemson and Notre Dame both suffered their second loss of the season on Saturday. There is still a path to the College Football Playoff for each team despite the early struggles. Clemson can still win the ACC, while the Fighting Irish will likely be favored in every game the rest of the season. And if you think the committee keeps out a two-loss Notre Dame team with the defeats coming by a combined four points to Miami and Texas A&M, you'll be disappointed come December. 

Each week during the season I'll  break down the rankings by tiers so bettors can see where I cut off each group. I'll also move teams based on results, discuss changes in the betting market and set the hypothetical point spread from Tier 1 compared to the rest of the tiers. Stop by the SportsLine college football Discord channel or hit me up on X at @TheTomCasale to let me know if you agree or disagree with the rankings.

College football Week 4 power ratings 

Tier 1

1. Ohio State Buckeyes
2. Penn State Nittany Lions
3. Georgia Bulldogs
4. Texas Longhorns

Ohio State and Penn State continued to roll in Week 3. Those teams are sleepwalking through the easy part of their schedule, although business is about to pick up soon. Penn State hosts Oregon on Sept. 27 in one of the biggest games of the year, while the Buckeyes have a couple of tricky road games at Washington and Illinois. 

Georgia won a big game at Tennessee, although I wasn't overly impressed with the Bulldogs. I had concerns about a Georgia defense that allowed seven opponents to rush for over 140 yards last season. Needless to say, I'm still concerned after the Bulldogs gave up 41 points and 500 total yards to Tennessee. Kirby Smart better fix the defense soon because Alabama comes to Athens in two weeks. Right now, I would make the Bulldogs 5-point favorites in that matchup.

Tier 2 (+2 from Tier 1)

5. Oregon Ducks
6. LSU Tigers

LSU and Oregon are a shade below the top four teams. We have seen Oregon's title odds drop to +650 after the Ducks blew out their first three opponents. While that has been very impressive, I would still make the teams in Tier 1 2-3 point favorites over the Ducks on a neutral field. 

I would make LSU and Oregon a pick 'em, so they are even in my rankings. The Ducks have looked great so far but LSU has better wins over Clemson and Florida heading into Week 4. If you are a fan of Oregon, this will all take care of itself when the Ducks visit Penn State in two weeks. I make the Nittany Lions 5-point favorites in Happy Valley.

Tier 3 (+4 from Tier 1)

7. Miami Hurricanes 
8. Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama and Miami may be in Tier 3 but they aren't that far from the top four teams. The Crimson Tide blasted Wisconsin at home and while they were beaten easily by Florida State, the bottom line is Alabama would still be favored over most other teams on a neutral field, including in a rematch with the Seminoles. 

Miami looks good with quality wins over Notre Dame and South Florida early in the year. The Hurricanes get another test this week when they host Florida and then travel to rival Florida State on Oct. 4. Miami is the clear +155 favorite to win the ACC after Clemson's loss on Saturday. I would make the Canes favored over every team outside the top six on a neutral field, including Alabama (-1.5).

Tier 4 (+7 from Tier 1)

9. Texas A&M Aggies
10. Oklahoma Sooners 
11. Florida State Seminoles

Tier 4 is the group where we could see a surprise title contender. Texas A&M won at Notre Dame. Oklahoma beat Michigan by 11. Florida State rolled past Alabama at home. Those are all good wins that make these three teams dangerous moving forward. 

The question is, can they do it again? We'll find out soon. Oklahoma faces Texas, Florida State gets Miami and Texas A&M hosts Auburn. While I have these teams as touchdown underdogs against the top four, that could change in the near future. My guess is one of the three moves up the rankings in the next couple of weeks.

Tier 5 (+9 from Tier 1)

12. Ole Miss Rebels
13. Michigan Wolverines
14. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
15. Auburn Tigers
16. Clemson Tigers 

Tier 5 is where we find two teams still a bit untested (Ole Miss, Auburn) and three teams with losses that can't afford anymore slip ups (Michigan, Notre Dame, Clemson). 

Auburn gets its first big test when the Tigers face No. 10 Oklahoma in Norman. The spread in that game is Oklahoma -6.5. I see some value backing Auburn at that number, although I'll probably lay off. I'm looking to bet the Sooners as underdogs when they face Texas on Oct. 11 so for future betting purposes, I hope they beat the Tigers.

Clemson and Notre Dame are both sitting with two losses but like I mentioned earlier, each team still has a path to the CFP. Out of the two, I'm more concerned about Clemson. I bet the Tigers preseason to win it all at +1600 and they look nothing like the team I expected to see this season. 

Michigan has a tough road test at Nebraska this week. If the Wolverines get past that game, I think they have the biggest ceiling of the five teams in tier five. I can see Michigan going on a run before facing Ohio State in the season finale if the Wolverines win on Saturday.

Tier 6 (+13 from Tier 1)

17. Tennessee Volunteers
18. Illinois Fighting Illini
19. Utah Utes
20. USC Trojans

Tennessee and USC make the top 20 this week. The Volunteers should have beaten Georgia but I give them a bit of a pass considering they were down two starting cornerbacks. 

USC has hammered three overmatched opponents. We'll learn more about the Trojans in the coming weeks with Michigan State, Illinois, Michigan and Notre Dame on deck. The Trojans are big favorites over Michigan State on Saturday, although I make them underdogs against the other three opponents. 

Georgia Tech just missed the list and is sitting at 21 after its upset over Clemson. The reason the Yellow Jackets are on the outside is because I'd make all four teams in Tier 6 favorites over them on a neutral field.

Next five: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Missouri Tigers, South Carolina Gamecocks, Iowa State Cyclones, TCU Horned Frogs