College football Week 12 storylines: The pending battle over 3-loss SEC teams in CFP; All eyes on Lane Kiffin

You know it's coming, so you might as well accept it now.

We're once again headed toward a debate over the worth of a three-loss SEC team for the final College Football Playoff spots.

Last year, all those decisions went against the league. Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina -- all three-loss teams -- were left just outside the 12-team field. The snubs generated plenty of frustration within SEC circles and ultimately helped drive a successful push to tweak the CFP selection committee's criteria.

As it stands today, the SEC has five teams in the projected playoff field, including No. 10 Texas, which visits No. 5 Georgia this weekend in Athens.

The Longhorns could become the most polarizing résumé in the country depending on how the season unfolds. If Texas wins out, it's in. If it drops two or more games, it's out. What gets interesting is the middle scenario: splitting its top-five matchups against Georgia and Texas A&M while beating Arkansas.

That would leave Texas at 9-3 with wins over Vanderbilt, Oklahoma and one of Georgia or Texas A&M. That profile stacks up favorably against the best victories on what should be a 10-2 Notre Dame résumé, even though the Fighting Irish remain ranked ahead of the Longhorns.

Would it be stronger than a 10-2 Utah or 10-2 BYU? On paper, yes, if the committee is intent on rewarding tougher schedules this season.

Texas might not be alone, either. No. 11 Oklahoma (7-2) and No. 14 Vanderbilt (8-2) are still hanging around. What happens if Oklahoma beats No. 4 Alabama this weekend but then falls to Missouri and finishes 9-3?

There are so many significant SEC games still ahead -- including the conference championship -- that a chaos scenario remains firmly in play. A cluster of two- and three-loss SEC teams might end up with playoff-worthy résumés. Combine that with the likelihood of a one-bid ACC and potentially a two-bid Big 12, and it's easy to see the pro-SEC and anti-SEC camps gearing up to run this debate back all over again.

Week 12 storylines... 

All eyes on Lane and Florida

On Saturday, Lane Kiffin will stand on Ole Miss' sideline doing everything he can to beat the 3-6 Florida Gators. A year after Florida derailed Ole Miss' playoff hopes, the Rebels would be all but guaranteed a CFP spot with a win.

That alone would command attention. Reaching the playoff would be a landmark achievement for the program -- and for Kiffin, who has matured as both a person and a coach in his five seasons in Oxford.

But there's also the subplot hovering over the game: Will Lane switch sides and be coaching Florida next year?

Unless Kiffin signs a contract extension, nothing he says or does will quiet speculation that this could be his final season at Ole Miss.

Multiple sources do not expect Kiffin to pursue a return to the NFL, though interest from NFL teams wouldn't be surprising. The more pressing question is whether he stays in Oxford or leaves for Gainesville or Baton Rouge.

Only Kiffin can truly answer that.

Industry sources say the trend is currently leaning toward Kiffin leaving, though this remains one of the most fluid coaching situations in the country. That could change by the hour, let alone by the week. What's true on Nov. 14 may not hold on Dec. 8. Still, it marks a shift from what those same sources believed only a few weeks ago.

Ole Miss has done -- and will continue doing -- everything possible to keep Kiffin. As CBS Sports has noted throughout the season, the ultimate factor will be where he believes he has the best chance to win a national championship. Ole Miss' continued success strengthens its case, but LSU and Florida have both won titles in the past 20 years.

Florida and LSU remain highly interested in Kiffin, according to sources. He knows he can essentially choose his path. He came close to leaving for Auburn three years ago before backing away at the last minute. Could he do the same this year? Absolutely.

All of it sets up a fascinating scene in Oxford this weekend. Ole Miss AD Keith Carter is surely aware that visiting Florida AD Scott Stricklin covets his coach. As the line from The Godfather goes, "It's not personal, it's business," but that doesn't make it any less awkward.

Kiffin needs to beat Florida to stay on track toward his lifelong goal of winning a national championship. What we'll learn over the next month is whether that's enough to keep him at Ole Miss.

Run game key in Alabama-Oklahoma

A year ago Alabama's playoff hopes went up in smoke in a shocking road loss to a 24-3 Oklahoma team. Jackson Arnold and the Sooners ran all over Alabama in a game that still doesn't make much sense to program insiders. 

It helps that No. 4 Alabama gets No. 11 Oklahoma at home this season, but this is still a tricky game for the Tide. Alabama has become largely one-dimensional on offense with a complete inability to sustain a run game. I watched Alabama in person last week against an overmatched LSU. I came away thinking Kalen DeBoer's team is very good, but if anything trips it up this season, it'll be the lack of run game. Alabama had all of 56 rushing yards against the Tigers and are averaging 111.89 yards on the ground per game, good for 119th out of 136 FBS teams. 

That could be a problem against a Brent Venables defense coming off the bye week. The Sooners have the nation's No. 4 rush defense, giving up a meager 82.44 yards per game. 

Hot Seat Watch

We've already seen several major programs make coaching changes this season, including heavyweights LSU, Florida, Penn State and Auburn. Even with all that movement, multiple schools are still weighing decisions on their current coaches.

Three to watch -- all with important games this weekend -- are Florida State, Maryland and Michigan State.

Maryland isn't expected to make an in-season move, but seventh-year coach Mike Locksley could badly use a win after five straight losses. Illinois won't be an easy opponent, but if the Terrapins are going to reach a bowl game, they likely need this one.

The heat continues to rise on Michigan State coach Jonathan Smith. After recently vacating wins for playing an ineligible player, Smith technically sits at 0-13 in Big Ten play and 3-13 overall in two seasons. With a new athletic director in place and Penn State already moving on from James Franklin, Smith can't afford many more losses. He's a prime candidate to look at resetting his coaching clock elsewhere.

And then there's Florida State. Plenty inside the university would love to avoid entering the carousel this cycle -- especially with Mike Norvell's buyout exceeding $58 million -- but the Seminoles need wins down the stretch. Last weekend's loss to Clemson didn't help Norvell's standing. Things will get tense if FSU doesn't win out, beginning Saturday against Virginia Tech. With the Hokies and season-ending opponent Florida both already firing their coaches this year, Norvell needs those games unless he wants to join Brent Pry and Billy Napier in the unemployment line.