College football Week 1 power ratings: 10 SEC schools featured in proven expert's Top 20

We got a little taste of college football in Week 0, but this Saturday features the first full slate of games headlined by No. 1 Texas traveling to No. 3 Ohio State and No. 9 LSU battling No. 4 Clemson. Each week during the year, I'll be releasing my Top 20 power rankings for betting purposes. Here is how I see things heading into Week 1 with Texas and Penn State atop my rankings to kick off the regular season. 

I'll break down the rankings by tiers so bettors can see where I cut off each group. During the year, we'll move teams based on results and discuss changes in the betting market. I will also set the point spread from Tier 1 compared to the rest of the tiers.

College football Week 1 power rankings 

Tier 1

1. Texas Longhorns 

2. Penn State Nittany Lions

Texas and Penn State are my top two teams entering the season. I'd make the Longhorns a 2-point favorite on a neutral field. If I had to pick the game right now I would lean Texas, assuming Arch Manning lives up to the hype. 

I don't expect either team to fall far over the first month, assuming the Longhorns don't get blown out at Ohio State. Texas has one of the toughest college football openers in recent memory, so the Horns won't get dinged much for a close loss on the road against the defending national champions. 

Penn State has an experienced roster, a veteran quarterback and one of the best schedules of any title contender. The Nittany Lions will be huge favorites in their first three games before Oregon comes calling on Sept. 27 in Happy Valley. I make Penn State a 6-point home favorite right now in that game.

Tier 2 (+3 from Tier 1)

3. Georgia Bulldogs

4. Clemson Tigers

5. Ohio State Buckeyes

6. LSU Tigers

The teams in Tier 2 I have rated really close, and there isn't much separating No. 3 Georgia and No. 6 LSU. I have the Bulldogs third because I make UGA a slight favorite over the other teams on a neutral field. I would also make Texas or Penn State a 3-4 point favorite over all of these teams on a neutral field with Georgia being the lone exception. I'd have Penn State -2 over the Bulldogs. 

These teams being rated so close is why I bet LSU +4 at Clemson in Week 1. At first, I planned to lay off that game but the line moved so much it presented value with LSU. I make Clemson -3 in that matchup, so anything +4 or better is a play on LSU with my numbers. 

I bet Clemson +1600 to win the title back in June because I thought there was some value but that number has dropped to +900. Similar to Texas vs. Ohio State, I don't see the loser of LSU vs. Clemson slipping far in my rankings. However, LSU will get a bump if it wins on the road in Week 1. 

Ohio State lost a ton of leadership and experience from last year's title team. The talent is still there; it's just younger. That includes the quarterback position, where Julian Sayin is untested. Then again, with all-world receiver Jeremiah Smith still in Columbus, it may not matter. I do believe Ohio State is a little overvalued early in the season. Of course, that could change on Saturday. A win over Texas would likely propel Ohio State into the top two spots.

Tier 3 (+4 from Tier 1)

7. Alabama Crimson Tide

8. Oregon Ducks 

9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Tier 3 is my "hold" group. Oregon, Alabama and Notre Dame are all starting untested quarterbacks, so there is a higher degree of variance based on how they perform. That's why I make Texas or Penn State at least a 4-point favorite over every team in this tier on a neutral field early in the year. 

Alabama is the most interesting team for me heading into the season. The Crimson Tide are loaded on both sides of the ball. Now, we have to see if they have the right quarterback in Ty Simpson. Head coach Kalen DeBoer is in a much better spot entering his second season at Alabama, but if the Tide lose to Florida State as big favorites, they will likely fall the furthest heading into Week 2. 

Notre Dame is favored over Miami on Aug. 31, but I make that game closer to a pick 'em. The Irish will have one of the most inexperienced quarterback rooms in the country entering the season after veteran Riley Leonard departed. Talented freshman CJ Carr will be under center versus Miami. I think Notre Dame will get better throughout the season. If the Irish lose to the Hurricanes, I will likely target them in the championship futures market. I can see Notre Dame running the table the rest of the way in the regular season.

Tier 4 (+7 from Tier 1)

10. Texas A&M Aggies

11. Miami Hurricanes 

12. Ole Miss Rebels 

Tier 4 holds three teams I believe can make title runs if a few breaks fall their way. However, at the moment, I have Texas and Penn State at least a touchdown favorite over all three on a neutral field. Miami is the one team out of this group that can make a jump after Week 1 with a win at home over Notre Dame. 

Texas A&M returns 15 starters, including sophomore quarterback Marcel Reed. The Aggies led the SEC in scoring last season and could be even better in 2025 if Reed develops as a passer. The Aggies get two tuneup games at home before traveling to Notre Dame. Beat the Irish and Texas A&M will be moving up the rankings. 

Ole Miss missed an opportunity to make the playoff last season with Jaxson Dart and a talented defense. This year's squad enters the year with a few more question marks. Lane Kiffin knows how to develop quarterbacks, and Austin Simmons has the potential to be special. The Rebels should be 4-0 when they host LSU on Sept. 27. Right now, I'd make the Tigers around a field goal favorite in that matchup.

Tier 5 (+9 from Tier 1)

13. Michigan Wolverines

14. Florida Gators

Tier 5 has the two teams I believe have the talent to make a College Football Playoff run, although some things have to fall into place for them to be serious title contenders. 

Some people love Michigan this season. I think the Wolverines might still be a year away from competing for a championship with quarterback Bryce Underwood. The team is deeper and more talented in Sherrone Moore's second season. The schedule is manageable, with a Week 2 matchup at Oklahoma being the pivotal game. I would make Michigan a slight favorite in that matchup.  

Florida is a sexy sleeper pick to win the national title. I like the Gators' talent, but they face one of the nation's toughest schedules for the second straight year. I'm also not sold that Billy Napier is the right guy at head coach. Then again, coaches get a lot smarter when they have a quarterback like DJ Lagway. I'm not interested in Florida at +4000 to win it all. I don't believe the Gators are serious title contenders quite yet.

Tier 6 (+13 from Tier 1)

15. SMU Mustangs

16. South Carolina Gamecocks 

17. Auburn Tigers

No team benefits more from NIL than SMU, as the school has a ton of money to spend from rich boosters. The Mustangs tried to use this system 40 years too early and lost the football program, but now it's okay to pay players. This team isn't a one-year wonder. Kevin Jennings returns at quarterback to lead one of the ACC's best offenses. I expect SMU to once again compete for a playoff berth. 

South Carolina is a bit overvalued heading into the season. Head coach Shane Beamer has a talented roster but loses three starters off one of college football's nastiest defensive lines. Keep in mind the Gamecocks' schedule is bottom heavy. I can see South Carolina starting the season 5-0 before heading to LSU on Oct. 11. The fast start could create value betting against the Gamecocks later in the year. 

Auburn really comes down to Jackson Arnold at quarterback. The Tigers struggled to throw a forward pass in some games last year, although the defense was strong, ranking 28th in the country. The talent is there for Auburn to make a big jump if Hugh Freeze finally has the right player under center. The Tigers are small favorites on the road over Baylor in Week 1. They could make a decent jump or fall out of the rankings completely depending on the outcome of that game. 

Tier 7 (+15 from Tier 1)

18. Oklahoma Sooners 

19. Iowa State Cyclones

20. Utah Utes

Tier 7 is a group of teams I think are good enough to reach the College Football Playoff, but that is probably their ceiling. 

Iowa State debuts in the rankings after its Week 0 win over Kansas State. The Cyclones aren't a sexy team but they are very well-coached and have an experienced roster. Iowa State moved to my betting favorite to win the Big 12 after the Week 0 win in Ireland.

Oklahoma is an interesting team, although my concern is Brent Venables is a better recruiter and coordinator than he is a head coach. The Sooners get Michigan at home on Sept. 6 in one of the bigger matchups early in the season. Oklahoma is the one team in Tier 7 I can see making a big move up the rankings, although the schedule is a monster. 

Next four: Illinois Fighting Illini, Tennessee Volunteers, USC Trojans, TCU Horned Frogs