College football title 2025 updated odds, predictions: Expert shares top picks, team to avoid ahead of Week 4

Things are heating up in college football as we head into Week 4. There are some key games on the slate for Saturday, although this week is the calm before the storm. Next Saturday is one of those days that will alter the National Championship betting market with a bunch of big matchups on Sept. 27, headlined by Oregon traveling to Happy Valley to face Penn State. 

Let's try to get ahead of the market and look at some National Championship bets to make now and one team to avoid, with all odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Best bets

Penn State Nittany Lions (+650)

I bet Penn State +750 before the season because I thought that would be the best price we would see on the Nittany Lions all year. The odds have dipped a little since then to +650, although I still think Penn State is worth a bet at that number. 

My reasoning is simple. I believe Penn State beats Oregon at home next week. If that happens, the Nittany Lions' odds drop to around +450. The Ducks are also +650, but I would wait to bet on them. Oregon probably runs the table after Penn State, so if the Ducks lose to the Nittany Lions and move to over +800, that will be the time to hit them. 

Betting futures is as much about timing as it is about backing a specific team. My advice is to bet Penn State now. I doubt we'll see the Nittany Lions at this number again after next Saturday. 

Miami Hurricanes (+1700)

In my preseason National Championship futures article, I gave out Miami as my favorite longshot bet at +4100. The Hurricanes' odds have dropped significantly since then. I still see value on The U at +1700. 

I mentioned this summer that Miami was being undervalued because people were way too down on Carson Beck. Beck had a couple of bad moments at Georgia, but he was overly criticized at times. The thing I liked about the Hurricanes entering the season is they have elite offensive and defensive lines. We saw that in the opener when Miami pushed Notre Dame all over the field. 

Miami has one of the most talented rosters in the country. They also have a favorable ACC schedule that misses Clemson and Georgia Tech. The Canes are over a touchdown favorite against Florida this Saturday and then travel to Florida State. If Miami wins both games, you are looking at their title odds dropping to +900 in a couple of weeks. 

I understand Mario Cristobal's late-game management is always a concern. However, sometimes a team is so talented, it overcomes a coach's blunders. Just ask Ohio State fans. 

Value play

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+3000)

Wait a second, isn't Notre Dame 0-2? Why would we want to bet them to win the National Championship? Let me explain. 

The Fighting Irish lost two games to top 10 teams by a combined four points. If Notre Dame runs the table, they are 100% in the College Football Playoff, whether you like it or not. I also preached all summer that the Irish would be better later in the season given all the key players they lost from last year's squad. 

Granted, I was hoping Notre Dame had split its first two games. Losing both leaves them no room for error. It's obvious the Irish miss defensive coordinator Al Golden, who I think is one of the best game day play callers on the planet right now. Still, I believe Notre Dame will be in the mix come December. 

The rest of Notre Dame's schedule sets up nicely. Navy, USC and Boise State are quality opponents, although the Irish get all three in South Bend. Some people might point to the Arkansas game being a potential pitfall, but I think Notre Dame runs right over the Hogs. 

CJ Carr is only going to get better throughout the season, and while the loss of Golden hurts, I expect the defense will improve as well. Remember, Marcus Freeman is a defensive coach, so I trust he will figure things out now that Notre Dame's two toughest games are behind them. 

Some things need to fall our way, but if Notre Dame gets into the playoff, they won't be an easy out. The Irish are worth a shot at 30-1.

Team to avoid

Georgia Bulldogs (+700)

Georgia is coming off an exciting win over Tennessee on the road. However, I still have concerns about the Bulldogs moving forward. 

Coming into the season, I was worried about a Georgia defense that struggled last year, especially against the run. The Bulldogs allowed under 80 rushing yards per game from 2019-2022 when they were winning National Championships. However, in the last two seasons, Georgia gave up 114 and 130 rushing yards per game. Last year, seven teams rushed for over 140 yards against the Bulldogs. 

In its first big test of the season, Georgia gave up 41 points and 496 total yards. Tennessee averaged 7.1 yards per play. Beck took a lot of the blame for Georgia not being as dominant the last two years, but the real problem was the declining defense. After one tough game, it still looks like a problem. 

The Bulldogs host Alabama next week and then face Ole Miss, Texas and Georgia Tech. I don't see this team running the table. If you like Georgia to win the National Championship, my advice is to wait. I think you will get a better number than +700 at some point during the regular season.