Predicting college football overreactions: Texas A&M should be No. 1, Clark Lea climbs SEC coaching ladder

One of the best weekends of the year is finally here. Though college football's Rivalry Week signals the end of the regular season -- well, most of it, at least -- it also promises a chaotic slate filled with impactful results and games that shift the national landscape. 

Every conference race is still wide open. None of the Power Four title game fields have been set yet, meaning that multiple teams will be battling it out for one of eight spots as the weekend unfolds. 

Beyond that, several College Football Playoff spots are still unsettled. Obviously, teams like No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Indiana and No. 3 Texas A&M can feel pretty good about their postseason outlook regardless of what happens in Week 14, but those on the bubble have a lot on the line. 

That includes Ohio State's top rival, No. 15 Michigan, who will host the Buckeyes on Saturday, and No. 16 Texas, which faces off against the Aggies Friday evening. There's a lot going on. 

We here at CBS Sports have been overreacting to each college football weekend for a while now. Let's try and manifest some into existence for a change ahead of the 14th week of the season. 

Clark Lea is the SEC's best hire since 2020

The SEC has seen plenty of impactful coaches join its ranks since the turn of the decade. Lane Kiffin has led Ole Miss to some of its most successful seasons in program history. Eli Drinkwitz has transformed Missouri into a team that no one can sleep on. Josh Heupel brought Tennessee out of its darkest era and flipped the Vols into a consistent playoff contender. 

Even Mike Elko was a grand-slam hire recently for Texas A&M. Though they weren't hired while in the SEC, Texas' Steve Sarkisian and Oklahoma's Brent Venables have expanded the conference's robust roster. 

But Clark Lea stands apart as the SEC's best hire of the past five years. Other coaches hired in that span have already accomplished more. Lea has Vanderbilt -- Vanderbilt -- on the precipice of its first College Football Playoff appearance in program history. That alone is enough to vault him ahead of his competitors. 

After he wins Saturday and snaps a six-game losing streak Vanderbilt's top rival, No. 19 Tennessee, his status as an elite leader will be irrefutable. He continues to reach new heights with the Commodores and it seems the arrow is only trending upward. 

Texas A&M has a case for No. 1 

Ohio State has occupied the nation's No. 1 spot since it downed Texas in Week 1 of the 2025 season. Now, after No. 3 Texas A&M beats the Longhorns in its regular-season finale, it will have a legitimate claim to the top seed in the College Football Playoff -- especially if it finishes a Cinderella season by lifting the SEC trophy in Atlanta. 

The Aggies would also have to leapfrog past No. 2 Indiana to reach the top of the mountain. Either Indiana or Ohio State has to lose in the Big Ten Championship Game -- if they don't before then -- so that will take care of one of the competitors. Texas A&M's résumé stacks up well against whoever is left. 

Texas A&M ranks first in strength of record with the Hoosiers and the Buckeyes trailing behind at No. 2 and No. 3, respectively. The Aggies also have a better strength of schedule (23rd) than Indiana (38th) and Ohio State (52) with a tougher remaining opponent, per ESPN's FPI metric, as well. 

Texas A&M won on the road against No. 9 Notre Dame and also collected road wins against LSU and Missouri, two teams that were ranked at the time of the game. Ohio State hasn't played a ranked opponent since Aug. 30 and Indiana's gone over a month since its last top-25 win, though it was an impressive 10-point triumph over No. 6 Oregon. 

Kenny Dillingham should be carousel's crown jewel

All eyes are on Lane Kiffin as he mulls his future with Ole Miss. Florida and LSU are willing to pay a king's ransom to poach the hottest coaching name on the market, and it seems he's at least willing to leave the Rebels in the cold as they aim to make a program-first College Football Playoff appearance. 

While Kiffin has earned this moment by transforming Ole Miss into a legitimate national competitor, schools searching for a new boss should shift their attention to Tempe, Arizona, instead. Take note: I do not want Kenny Dillingham to leave Arizona State. He's great there. Dillingham probably doesn't want to leave Arizona State. 

He's an alum, and he got his college coaching career started as an offensive assistant with the Sun Devils. He's been consistent in his desire to stay around the program. But he's also the type of candidate that you make say no before completely writing him off. 

Unlike Kiffin, Dillingham has already won a Power Four conference title, and unlike Kiffin, Dillingham has already made a College Football Playoff appearance. He's also done miracles on Arizona State this season. The Sun Devils have battled through several major injuries, including one that kept star wide receiver Jordyn Tyson sidelined for multiple weeks and another that knocked starting quarterback Sam Leavitt out for the season, and yet they're still -- technically -- alive in the Big 12 race with an 8-3 record. 

Dillingham is winning games with Jeff Sims as his quarterback. Though it would take a significant package to lure him away from Arizona State, he would likely be a bit cheaper than the staggering figures that are being tossed around in relation to Kiffin. 

Don't sleep on Pitt in the playoff race

Pittsburgh has been up and down this season, but the Panthers are still alive in the playoff race. They need some help to make the ACC Championship Game, and they'll at least take a huge step in that direction Saturday when they upset No. 12 Miami. 

It will be their second straight ranked win in a row, as they took a huge step towards postseason contention in Week 13 when they downed Georgia Tech. They'll need either SMU or Virginia to lose to make it to Charlotte, but if they get there, they'll be one win away from their inaugural College Football Playoff appearance.