Tom Fornelli's College Football Power Ratings: Ohio State on top; why Texas holds firm at No. 2 after loss

The first full week of college football is in the books, and that's great for multiple reasons. The first is that we all got to watch actual football being played for five straight days after a long offseason. More importantly, for our purposes here with these power ratings, we got actual data to use!

We also have a chance to teach a little. A reminder for those of you reading this for the first time who did not see our preseason ratings. These are power ratings -- not an opinion poll, nor are they like what you see in the AP Top 25 where teams are (supposed to be) ranked based on results and performance. Power ratings are predictive. They focus more on performance and process than on the results in order to determine the most likely future outcomes.

So, you will not see drastic changes here on a weekly basis (though you will see some movement this week). I saw a lot of surprise and outrage over Texas remaining at No. 1 in a few different public power ratings this week despite losing 14-7 to Ohio State. Texas is not No. 1 here, but only because it wasn't No. 1 before. Ohio State was, and still is.

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However, for those who don't understand why Texas doesn't drop in a power rating, it's because of what I told you two paragraphs ago. Power ratings aren't nearly as concerned with the final score as the rest of us. They care more about what happened in the game, and if you look at the generic box scores, as well as some advanced metrics, Texas lost the game but outperformed Ohio State in a lot of key areas.

And that's why Texas wasn't punished much in anybody's power ratings. The 'Horns still No. 2 here as well.

When you go on the road to face the defending champions, who are one of the best teams in the country, and still have a chance to win the game late in the fourth quarter, there's nothing there that suggests you're suddenly a bad team. If Texas finds a way to punch the ball into the end zone from the 1-yard line in the third quarter, we might be having a very different conversation right now.

Of course, that kind of sanity and logical thinking gets lost in the Arch Manning melodrama about whether he's the most overrated player ever or not. I certainly don't think he played well, but while all that hootin' and hollerin' can be fun, we put on our noise-cancelling headphones and block it out when working on the power ratings.

Outside the top two, our 12 teams from last week remain the same, but there is plenty of movement worth discussing, so how about we do that?

National championship odds below via FanDuel Sportsbook.

2025 Fornelli Power Ratings

1	Ohio State
Ohio State should send Arch Manning a thank-you card for sucking up all the talking head oxygen because it's overshadowing an Ohio State offensive performance that was far from awe-inspiring. Drops made Julian Sayin's final numbers look worse than they were, but they still weren't very impressive. What truly stands out is Ohio State having an explosive play rate of only 3.7%. That ranks 134th nationally, ahead of only Middle Tennessee, which lost to Austin Peay, and Miami (OH), which was shutout by Wisconsin. I'm not too worried about it since the Buckeyes won't be playing Texas every week, but the lack of explosiveness is a key reason why the Buckeyes were never able to pull away. (Last Week: 1) --  Title Odds: (+550)  
2	Texas
I've already gone over why Texas doesn't drop here despite the loss, and in truth, the gap between them and the teams behind them didn't shrink, either. The positive takeaways are that if the offense continues to show growing pains with a young quarterback, the defense looked phenomenal against what will prove to be one of the best offenses in the country. That will make sure the Longhorns are able to compete against a schedule that looks a little tougher after what we saw this weekend. (2) -- Title odds (+750)
3	Georgia
Want an idea of how vanilla Georgia's offensive game plan was against Marshall in its 45-7 win? According to PFF, the Bulldogs didn't use pre-snap motion on a single play in the game. Dawgs just walked up to a spot, stood there until the ball was snapped, and then ran by the poor Marshall player responsible for them. We won't learn much about this team until the trip to Knoxville, Tennessee, on Sept. 13. (3) --  Title Odds: (+600)
4	Penn State
Want an idea of how vanilla Penn State's offensive game plan was against Nevada in its 46-11 win? It didn't use any pre-snap motion, either! It's a good thing we had so many top-10 matchups to keep us occupied this weekend, because there was a lot of boring football played against overwhelmed opponents throughout most of the country. Penn State made a point to show off its new receivers in the game, but I'm not putting much stock in anything from this one. We won't see anything Penn State doesn't want us to see until the Oregon game on Sept. 27. (5) --  Title Odds: (+600) 
5	Notre Dame
The Irish lost Sunday night against Miami, but there wasn't anything about the performance that raised alarm bells in my eyes. C.J. Carr had the best performance of the first-time starting QBs at our powerhouse schools, even if that performance came with plenty of freshman moments. The offensive line had problems, but overall, it was fine. The same can be said of the defense that saw its backup nickel get abused by freshman sensation Malachi Coney, but otherwise held the Canes offense in check. That may prove to be Notre Dame's toughest test of the regular season, and it lost on a field goal in the closing seconds. (6) --  Title Odds: (+1600 ) 
6	Oregon
The Ducks had no trouble at all in a 59-13 win over Montana State and probably could've put 70 on the board had they wanted to. Still, the Ducks moving up two spots in our power ratings has far more to do with two teams dropping than it does their performance. Next week's game against Oklahoma State may be more insightful. (8) --  Title Odds: (+1200)
7	LSU
There are reasons to be confident and concerned about LSU's performance against Clemson Saturday night; it all depends on your perspective. Offensively, the Tigers weren't great. Garrett Nussmeier made enough plays to win the game, but from a down-to-down basis, things were sketchy, and the run game was mostly non-existent. Considering the defense they were up against, it's not much of a surprise. Still, despite not being their best, LSU won the game -- at Clemson. The defense made life miserable for Cade Klubnik and Co. If LSU can go on the road and win that game with a B- performance, what is this team capable of doing when firing on all cylinders? (9) --  Title Odds: (+1100)
8	Clemson
Clemson doesn't suffer a steep drop because, as mentioned above, the defense played well. Plus, I wasn't as high on the Tigers as others to begin with because I am a certified Cade Klubnik Skeptic when it comes to how he performs against teams on a level playing field as his own. His performance Saturday night only further solidified that feeling in my eyes. What was far more concerning for me was Clemson's inability to run the ball. If they don't figure that out, they could be falling out of this top 12 soon. (7) --  Title Odds: (+1700)
9	Michigan
The defensive performance wasn't outstanding in a 34-17 win over New Mexico, but I'm not putting that on a drop-off in talent on Michigan's side. For those unfamiliar with New Mexico coach Jason Eck, the man has a very fun and innovative offense that's difficult to prepare for. It's why he got the job, and they did some cool things to move the ball at times. You would like to see the Wolverines' defense clean things up as they prepare for Oklahoma, though, and Bryce Underwood should expect a far more difficult environment against the Sooners than the one he faced at home against the Lobos defense. (10) --  Title Odds: (+3300)
10	Alabama
It's a six-spot drop in the ratings, but it's not all a reflection of Alabama's performance. Don't get me wrong, it was bad, and more than a little concerning. It's also becoming something of a trend as the Tide has now lost three of four and is 4-4 over its last eight games. But this drop is also reflective of how closely bunched my ratings were from Nos. 4 through No. 10 coming into the season. I know there's a lot of "the sky is falling" going on in Tuscaloosa at the moment, but I'm not convinced things are that bad just yet. (4) --  Title Odds: (+1700)
11	Miami (Fla.)
If we're handing out the Joe Moore Award for the country's best offensive line after Week 1, I know who is getting my vote. It's no shock that a Mario Cristobal offensive line would be strong, but there was a lot of hype about the unit in the offseason, and they lived up to it against a stout Notre Dame front on Sunday night. Overall, it was an extremely encouraging start for the Hurricanes, and my only concern remains what has been my primary concern with Miami since Cristobal took the job. The offense was way too conservative, trying to nurse a lead in the second half instead of going for the kill, and that has Mario's fingerprints on it. They were also ultra-conservative on the game-winning field goal drive but got away with it. The decisions made on the sidelines should always be a part of how you rate teams. (12) --  Title Odds: (+2500)
12	Texas A&M
Run defense could be a problem! UTSA rushed for 203 yards against A&M even though the Aggies won 42-24. I do wonder if some of that's by design, though. Mike Elko probably doesn't mind you running the ball as much as he would giving up explosive plays, just so long as he can lock you up in the red zone. The problem is the Aggies gave up explosives on the ground and weren't great in the red zone! Utah State looked feisty in their opener and could pose a challenge, but the road trip to Notre Dame in two weeks will tell us much more. (11) --  Title Odds: (+3000 )